Mismanaging the Bullpen: A Look at Leverage Index

by 2011 Season

I’m not going to berate Jim Leyland for the use of Brad Thomas to begin the seventh inning (even though I think it was a poor choice in a high leverage situation). He was down a man in the bullpen because Ryan Perry had just been placed on the DL and I’m sure he didn’t want to immediately burn Joaquin Benoit or Jose Valverde so soon in a one run game. I would have loved to see Brayan Villarreal remain in the game, but that didn’t happen, and that isn’t what this post is about.

The real mismanagement of the bullpen, in my opinion, was not brining in Benoit after Thomas had allowed the first two hitters of the inning to reach base. According to the Leverage Index chart, the inning had started with an LI of 1.9 (1.0 is an “average situation”), but it quickly jumped up to 3.5 the single and the walk. That’s closer or setup man territory, not long relief or mop-up duty. It’s a nearly identical situation (according to leverage) to having a one run lead going into the bottom of the ninth (3.5 to 3.6).

Why do you bring in Enrique Gonzalez? So that he can diffuse the situation and you can bring in your highly priced free agent reliever the next inning in a less pressure-packed situation? A one run lead in the bottom of the eighth would carry an L.I. of 2.5. That’s still high-leverage, but it’s less critical than what they were facing there in the seventh.

I’m all for having defined roles in the bullpen (closer, 8th inning, 7th inning, long relief, LOOGY), but we can’t be so rigid with them that we end up placing poorer pitchers in the most critical spots. I’m usually a supporter of the things Jim Leyland does, but this one was simply not good.

Obviously Benoit could have entered the game and the Orioles still could have scored a pile of runs, we’ll never know, but at least the Tigers would have been better suited to get out of the inning with minimal damage. A manager is supposed to put his team in the best position to win, and Jim didn’t do that last night.

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Leyland biffed for sure. I agree Villarreal should have came out for the seventh. Brad Thomas could have given a better effort though to help Leyland. The 5 pitch walk to Markakis was pathetic.

Brad Thomas isn't a mop-up man, he is a genuine LOOGY. I mean that he can't mop up properly. One batter, and never any righties. If they bring in a righty off the bench, you pull Thomas before he throws a pitch. He cannot get them out. Leyland just doesn't like using guys that way. I have also noticed what seems like a pronounced tendency in Leyland to leave starters out there until they get into trouble rather than ever pulling them before it happens. That puts a lot of pressure on your bullpen - and if you're putting a lot of pressure on Brad Thomas...

I hate to say it but we actually need a true LOOGy like Ni more than Casper "I never get to play" Wells. Regardless, I would have put Schlereth out there to start the inning or--as you mentioned--Benoit to stop the potential threat.
It's not a secret, I've said it since he arrived in Detroit, Brad Thomas isn't very good. He's a mop-up man, nothing more.
To dive even deeper, Penny was struggling, so why even throw him out there his last inning? He was in line for the win, with the lead, just send in Villarreal to begin that inning.

I was pretty pissed! Oh well, on to the Royals

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  1. [...] fine if he meant that he only wants to use him for one inning in any particular game, but some seventh inning situations are “higher leverage” than the eighth inning would [...]