Analyzing the Market: Who's On Second? Who's On Third?

Everyone reading this probably knows that the Tigers could use some help at second and third base. It’s also pretty widely known that the Tigers had some trouble in the top third of their batting order this year; they struggled to get runners on base for Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez to drive in, and when they did men get on base, those runners were largely unable to move themselves into scoring position. With those things in mind, the ideal acquisition for Detroit would be a second or third baseman who gets on base and has a bit of speed. In a perfect world, that player would have the lead-off skills necessary to push Austin Jackson down in the order. Are there any players available who fit that bill?

According to FanGraphs, 52 second basemen had at least 200 plate appearances this year, and the same site lists 58 200+ PA players as third basemen. Take out nine duplicates and we have 101 second and third basemen who logged enough time in the majors this year to generate a decent sample size. It should be noted that this isn’t an inclusive sample; when limiting a FanGraphs leaderboard by position, you get only players whose primary position is the one you’ve selected. For example, Michael Cuddyer can play both second and third base, but is not included in this sample because neither of those was his primary position this year. In other words, it’s not perfect, but it gives us a pretty good place to start.

Going down the list, I picked out 40 players out of 101 who are generally thought of as good candidates to be on the move during this off-season; 17 free agents (including one Type A; Kelly Johnson, and four Type Bs; Aramis Ramirez, Wilson Betemit, Aaron Hill, and Mark Ellis), 18 players who were mentioned by MLB Trade Rumors as non-tender or trade candidates, and, for good measure, five more players (Howie Kendrick, Neil Walker, Maicer Izturis, Kyle Seager, and Sean Rodriguez) who have been discussed by this site and/or others as possible trade targets for the Tigers.

49 players of those on the original list of 101 had an on-base percentage of .321 (the major-league average) or better in 2011. Only 16 of those 49, however, made my list of potentially available players. It’s hard to imagine the Tigers signing anyone under that OBP mark and asking them to fill a starting role, as a player who gets on base at such a low rate is probably not too much better offensively than second base incumbent (kind of) Ramon Santiago.

So we’re down to 16 players who either have been the subject of significant trade speculation or are free agents and have the ability to get on base at least an average rate. Do any of those players have any speed? Kind of. Eight of them stole at least eight bases during this past season, but none swiped more than 14 bags. In order to include the fastest players on my final list of candidates, I re-added five players (Hill, Johnson,  Ellis, Chris Getz, and Mike Aviles) who were previously eliminated based on low OBP but stole at least 14 bases this year.

Finally, I have a non-inclusive list of 21 second and third basemen who may or may not be attainable but might fit at the top of the Tigers’ order. It favors two simple stats (OBP and SB) that could, but don’t necessarily, indicate lead-off skills. It’s not a scientific evaluation, but it provides a sort of road map of players the Tigers might want to target:

Name Team Pos. Age OBP SB Status
Chase Headley SDP 3B 27 .374 13 Trade Candidate – MLBTR
Kevin Youkilis BOS 3B 32 .373 3 Trade Candidate – MLBTR
Alberto Callaspo LAA 3B 28 .366 8 Trade Candidate – MLBTR
Aramis Ramirez Cubs 3B 33 .361 1 Type B Free Agent
Jamey Carroll LAD 2B 37 .359 10 Free Agent
David Wright NYM 3B 28 .345 13 Trade Candidate – MLBTR
Jerry Hairston MIL 3B 35 .344 3 Free Agent
Wilson Betemit DET 3B 29 .343 4 Type B Free Agent
Casey Blake LAD 3B 37 .342 1 Free Agent
Howie Kendrick LAA 2B 27 .338 14 Trade Candidate – John Verburg
Neil Walker PIT 2B 25 .334 9 Trade Candidate – John Verburg
Maicer Izturis LAA 2B/3B 30 .334 9 Trade Candidate – Jordan Gorosh
Skip Schumaker STL 2B 31 .333 0 Non-Tender Candidate – MLBTR
Sean Rodriguez TBR 2B 26 .323 11 Trade Candidate – Lynn Henning
Mark Reynolds BAL 3B 27 .323 6 Trade Candidate – MLBTR
Ryan Theriot STL 2B 31 .321 4 Non-Tender Candidate – MLBTR
Chris Getz KCR 2B 27 .313 21 Non-Tender Candidate – MLBTR
Kelly Johnson TOR 2B 29 .304 16 Type A Free Agent
Aaron Hill ARI 2B 29 .299 21 Type B Free Agent
Mike Aviles BOS 2B/3B 30 .289 14 Non-Tender Candidate – MLBTR
Mark Ellis COL 2B 34 .288 14 Type B Free Agent

The most attractive option appears to be Chase Headley, who led the pack in OBP and stole 13 bases this year. He’s young and his current club, given their position, should be willing to shop him. Jordan Gorosh recently wrote that he would be a perfect fit for Detroit. If they fail to get Headley, I’m partial to Jamey Carroll, who’s old but would definitely come cheap. I wrote about him a few weeks back. Gorosh also has a piece up about Izturis. John Verburg wrote a while back that Kendrick wasn’t a good fit for the Tigers, but was more partial to a trade for Walker.

It’s easy for us to speculate, but much harder to actually pull off a trade or signing like these. Good luck Mr. Dombrowski.

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Tags: Aaron Hill Aramis Ramirez Austin Jackson Chase Headley Chris Getz David Wright Free Agents Howie Kendrick Jamey Carroll Kelly Johnson Kyle Seager Maicer Izturis Neil Walker Ramon Santiago

  • ChrisHannum

    I take it I’m the only one who thinks that Chone Figgins could bounce back?

    • JohnJParent

      @ChrisHannum nope. I’m right there with ya. And I think the M’s would pick up a large chunk of his salary to move him, too.

    • woodnick

      @ChrisHannum I personally don’t like his chances of bouncing back, his hitting #s might get to Inge’s level…but I thought the idea is to improve from Inge.

      • ChrisHannum

        @woodnick Even if he had the same OPS as Inge, he would be getting on base while Inge was hitting the home runs. I’d rather have a .270/.340/.300 line than a .210/.260/.380 line if we’re going to have a .640 OPS.

        • woodnick

          @ChrisHannum unfortunately Figgins’ OBP was lower than Inge’s last year, but yes I agree with you that I’d value a higher OBP over a higher SLG, if the OPS was the same, especially if speed is involved which it is here.

        • ChrisHannum

          @woodnick I understand that Figgins was really awful in all respects last year. Even if he would play for free, nobody would let him if he was going to repeat those numbers.

        • wilsonm24

          @ChrisHannum@woodnick Exactly. Their numbers last year were pretty similar, and Inge’s were admittedly better, but the type of hitter and where they would bat show that if Figgin’s returns to even an trace of his former self that he would be more valuable to this team that Inge playing at around his career norms.

          Inge at his career norms is still a 8/9 hitter on this team. Figgin’s is a 1/2. We need the guys on base that can go from 1st to 3rd on a single, or 1st to home on a double for our 4/5/6 hitters. Figgin’s is that guy (or at least used to be), Inge never was and never will be.

  • wilsonm24

    I agree with you about Carroll and I think he can be had for a decent contract.

    Chris, I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Figgin’s either, As bad as he was last year he was still only as bad as Inge.. If worse comes to worse he is probably a better platoon option with Inge than what we have now.

    • woodnick

      @wilsonm24 Figgins OPS was a full 100 points lower than Inge’s last year, Figgins might swipe some bases for us but speed is usually the first thing to go and Inge is better defensively.

  • woodnick

    After looking at our roster construction for next year I’m now convinced that we either need to get a 2b/3b that can play SS, trade Rayburn/Kelly, or trade Young and platoon LF between Dirks, Kelly and Rayburn (assuming Boesch is full-time RF).

    Usually the Tigers carry 12 pitchers, leaving 13 sots for position players. Avila, Cabrera, Peralta, Inge, Young, Jackson, Boesch, VMart are our current starters. Add a back-up C and the total goes to 21, which leaves 4 spots for Rayburn, Kelly, Dirks, and a starting 2b. Unless the 2b we acquire can play SS once in a while, we have no back-up behind Jhonny, which is a necessity to keep him fresh. If we move Rayburn or Kelly, or trade Young and platoon LF between Dirks, Kelly and Rayburn then we can move Worth into the role that Santiago used to play, but Leyland loves Rayburn and Kelly so I don’t see that happening leaving the acquired 2b as the remaining option.