Projection Series: OF Brennan Boesch

So, Jordan is out of the country I believe, so I felt like I wanted to participate and help out my fellow MCB writer and continue his series while he is gone. This is somewhat new for me, since I have never really paid much attention to projections before, so it should be a fun exercise for me. Like Jordan and Chris, I will be using the various projections on Fangraphs, averaging them and seeing what we come up with for Brennan Boesch.

Here we go.

2012 Aggregate Projection:

PA: 513 HR: 17 RBI: 65 BB%: 7.5 K%: 18.3 ISO: .175 BABIP: .309

.274/.333/.447 OPS: .780 WAR: 2.3

Why He May Exceed Projection:

There are several reasons that Boesch may exceed expectation. First and foremost is who he is going to be hitting in front of in the lineup on a daily basis. As things stand now, Boesch is slated to spend his at-bats in front of Miguel Cabrera, so he should get good pitches to hit. He performed much better doing just that in 2011, than he did when he hit behind Cabrera. Also, while his walk rate went down slightly, Boesch’s discipline at the plate is getting better. He is swinging less at pitches out of the zone and making more contact when pitches are within the zone. Lastly, Boesch, while he did suffer another second half swoon last season, we don’t really know how much of that is due to him having trouble with his thumb. Immediately after the All Star break he was doing just fine, then it started going downhill again fast, but not to the extent it did in his rookie campaign. If he can maintain a little more consistency from one half to the next, he can easily exceed projection. Also, defensively, I think he is going to have more stability, and play more every day in RF, so it could help out his defensive numbers assuming some improvement through repetition.

Why he may do worse than projection:

Well, defensively, he could do worse if he is just a flat out bad fielder, and the -6.6 UZR/150 he had in RF gets even worse. Offensively, my biggest worry is simply that he stay healthy. I think the positive trends on his strike zone judgement aren’t all of a sudden going to go away, but his any injury to the hand area for a hitter concerns me. If his thumb continues to nag him as the season goes on, and Boesch plays through it, it could be a concern for his overall numbers.

My Projection:

I’m actually a little bit high on Brennan Boesch this year if he stays healthy. As mentioned, his strike zone judgement is getting better, his BABIP from last year isn’t out of whack, and neither is his line drive percentage. I don’t see a large regression in anything that he was doing before he went out for the season. So I do expect that we will see an overall increase in his numbers. In other words, not a drastic second half slump. I think the projections are a little bit light. I see an average around .285, and OBP around .340, and about 21 homers. I don’t expect him to drive in a bunch, given his spot in the order, but I will project around 67. Overall, I do think his defense will drag his value down, but I can see a WAR of around 2.7 for Boesch in 2012.