Oct 5, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Rick Porcello (21) enters the game against the Oakland Athletics during the ninth inning in game two of the American League divisional series playoff baseball game at O.co Coliseum. The Oakland Athletics defeated the Detroit Tigers 1-0 with a walk off win. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Tigers Are Willing To Trade Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Detroit Tigers have been telling teams that they’re open to trading Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello.

This should come as no surprise to anyone who’s followed the Tigers for the last 12 months or so. A year ago we were inundated with rumors that the Tigers were looking to deal Porcello, but ultimately nothing came of it and he had a fine year at the back of the Detroit rotation.

This year, however, it seems more likely that a trade eventually gets done. Scherzer, a top Cy Young candidate, is entering his final year of team control and could be the key piece in a potential trade that could help to restock the Tigers’ farm system. Porcello, who has two years of team control remaining, likely improved his trade stock by showing marked improvement in 2013.

With Drew Smyly ready and available to move into the rotation and, a payroll that’s ever rising, and two pitchers who are at-or-near peak value, the time to trade a starting pitcher may be here.

I’m guessing, though, that it’s not Scherzer who gets dealt this offseason. With a projected $13.6 million pricetag and only the one year of control remaining, the proposed return packages likely won’t be what the Tigers are seeking. They’re trying to position themselves for another run at the World Series, so trading a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber is out of the question if the return isn’t everything you hoped it would be.

The truth is that Scherzer and Porcello might fetch surprisingly similar returns. Scherzer is projected to be a 4.2 win player in 2014 by the early Steamer Projections. If that’s the case, and if we peg the dollars-to-WAR ratio at $6 million, then Max’s 2014 season carries a surplus value of $11.6 million (plus the value of a 2015 first round compensation pick).

Porcello’s 2014 Steamer Projection is for 3.2 WAR, so let’s say he’s projected to be worth 6 WAR over the next two years. If that’s the case, and if he earns $20 million in arbitration the next two years (probably on the high side), then his remaining team control years would carry $16 million in surplus value.

Those numbers are estimates – and fairly rough at that – but I think it shows that it’s at least possible that Porcello would fetch a similar package to Scherzer (depending on how you value the draft pick, exact performance projections, and exact dollars-to-WAR conversion). And trading Porcello wouldn’t have near the impact on the team’s chances in 2014 than trading Scherzer would.

If I was in charge of the Tigers my current inclination would be to (1) trade Porcello for a decent prospect package, (2) move Drew Smyly to the rotation, and (3) let Scherzer walk after 2014 and collect the compensation draft pick.

Next Tigers Game View full schedule »
Monday, Sep 11 Sep4:05at Cleveland IndiansBuy Tickets

Tags: Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer Rick Porcello

  • chrisHannum

    I think you’re estimating Porcello’s market value a little too highly. His WAR and his ERA don’t line up and never have. I predict that other GMs would be interested only in buying low, but not in paying a steep price for him.

    • http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com Matt Snyder

      Sure, but we could just as well predict 5 (RA/9) WAR over the next two years and $18 million in arb salary for $12 million in surplus value. Point is that his trade value MIGHT not be all that far off from Max’s.

      Get him in front of a defense than can get to ground balls and he might start pitching closer to his FIP.

      • chrisHannum

        What I’m saying is that WAR is based on his peripherals rather than his “actual run prevention”. To argue that he has similar trade value is not only saying that you personally expect that his xFIP and his ERA will be equal next year (in some other city with some other defense) but that GMs around the league are confident of that as well. I think a lot of them will just see a guy who has had ERAs north of 4.00 in each of the last 4 seasons.

        • http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com Matt Snyder

          FanGraphs’ is based on FIP, Baseball Reference’s is based on RA/9. The difference this past year was 0.8 and above average by both.

          • chrisHannum

            OK. You win.

  • Pingback: How Trading Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello Would Affect the Detroit Tigers in 2014 - Motor City Bengals - A Detroit Tigers Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More