Clayton Kershaw just got a bonkers deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers (not that he doesn’t deserve it). What would your seven-year offer to Max Scherzer look like?
Michael Emmerich: Scherzer is obviously much older than Kershaw and has had his ups and downs. But he will end up making Verlander kind of money, so if the Tigers want to keep him that’s what they will have to pay, around 28 million a year. Frankly, I hope the Tigers move in another direction after this season, unless Scherzer agrees to a 3-4 year deal (lol).
Matt Pelc: Max hasn’t had the sustained success that Kershaw has seen. My gut says Scherzer is happy here and even with Scott Boras as his agent, he may not command, or demand, Kershaw or Verlander money. JV got $202 million over eight years whereas Kershaw’s contract is seven years, $215 million. I’d offer Max $175 million for seven years prior to the season, but full disclosure, math and I have never seen eye-to-eye.
Tom Zahari: If I am forced to give Scherzer a 7-year deal, I would make it for around $130 million with incentives to get that number up to about $150 million. I am very wary about giving pitchers this much money, especially after only having 1 season to the caliber that Scherzer had in 2013. Kershaw has had a run of dominance of 5 years with an ERA under 3 which Max did for the first time in his career last season.
Blair Tatrault: This is bad news for the Tigers and I’m not sure they’ll be able to cough up the $160 million or so over 7 years ($23M/yr) it may take to secure Max Scherzer. This is further fodder for those such as myself who questioned the Doug Fister trade. Though obviously not in Kershaw’s league as a pitching talent, he was a bargain at $6.9M or so for 2014, plus he was under team control for 2015. Both Scherzer’s and Fister’s value went up considerably with Kershaw’s windfall contract, and in both cases that’s an unwelcome development for the Tigers.
Chris Hannun: He’s not JV and he’s not Kershaw, so I can’t see offering him the same AAV – though I think that is what Boras will be demanding. There’s a difference between a guy who just won a Cy Young and a guy who’s on a HoF track. I’d go 15-22-23-24-24-24-24, and simultaneously worry he wouldn’t be worth it and that he wouldn’t take it.
Grant Stoye: I figure that by turning 30 this year he’ll have about a 5.5 WAR, and that same number for the next year. After that, probably a 5, 4.5, 4, 3, and 3, equally about to 30.5 WAR over seven years. With a WAR being about $6m per, increasing by .3 a year, I feel like it could be averaged to about 6.6, and a total payout of $201. This contract could be frontloaded, or it could be for less money, and there’s also the fact that Scherzer would take less to stay here. So, in a perfect world, if I had my druthers, I’d go 7 years, $180m ($31.5, 30.5, 29, 26.5, 25.5, 21, 16).
Josh Paulisin: Nowhere near Kershaw’s $215 million or even Verlander’s $180 million. Last season’s Cy Young could very well be a blip on the screen of Max Scherzer’s career. Put me down for $140 million tops. But if Max doesn’t want that, I’ll pitch for that money.
Matt Snyder: I would probably offer up something in the $155-$160 million range, which is $24-ish million per year for the free agency years plus $13 million or so for his final arbitration year. If he’s looking for a whole lot more than that, then I wouldn’t necessarily chase him.
Sam O’Toole: Scherzer was awesome last year, no doubt about it, but I don’t think his new contract will be what Kershaw received; Scherzer did put together a solid 2012 season as well. The Tigers won’t give Scherzer more than they did Verlander for his seven-year deal ($180 million), and I don’t see the Tigers taking what Felix Hernandez received in Seattle. I would offer Scherzer a seven-year deal worth between $150 and 160 million which is comparable to CC Sabathia’s deal and Zach Grienke which would put him among the six or seven highest paid pitchers.