May 18, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez (19) reacts during the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, the Texas series wasn’t a 3-gamer and the Tigers didn’t get swept. NOR did Ace #2 Max Scherzer step up to stop the bleeding. The only good start and the only win the Tigers got in the series was thanks to fan whipping-boy Rick Porcello. In 5 2/3 innings on Friday night, Porcello allowed only one run on a solo homer by Geovany Soto. He struck out six and walked only 1. Being Rick Porcello, he didn’t make it through the 6th, but the Tigers DID get the win despite having to scrabble for 3 runs on only 6 hits. We’ve already established: the Texas Rangers are a good offensive team, especially at home. That’s why we can excuse those (highly) uncharacteristic starts from Verlander & Sanchex, and to a lesser extent Fister. But how on earth did Rick Porcello manage to get these guys out??? His ERA, even after that good start, just barely dropped below SIX.

One thing, clearly, is that Rick Porcello is a better pitcher than his godawful 2 out start against the Angels. If you only count his other appearances, his ERA is close to 4.00 and his WHIP is close to 1.10. Those aren’t bad numbers. Rick Porcello is probably the Tigers 5th best starter (and maybe the 6th) mostly because the other guys are so good. The second thing is that Porcello is throwing the ball pretty hard right now and getting some swinging strikeouts. Five of those six strikeouts by Porcello were swinging, only one looking. That’s despite the fact that Rangers batters missed very few pitches from Kid Rick with fewer than two strikes. On Friday ngiht, Porcello was able to do the thing that has eluded him for most of his young career – he was able to finish guys off. As was explained in September by Michael Barr at Fangraphs – Rick Porcello’s slider is not able to do that any more than his fastball is (though that fastball was up a tick Friday at about an average of 93). According to Brooksbaseball.net, Porcello threw 10 sliders and didn’t get a single swing and miss on them. Perhaps because 8 of them missed the zone. The pitches that did generate swings and misses, at least when Porcello needed them to, were his curveball and his changeup – though he did actually get one whiff on a sinker. Porcello also did a lot of what he has tended to do so well – generated weak and pointless contact. Of Porcello’s 106 pitches thrown on Friday, he had 58 SNIPs (strikes not in play) with only 6 whiffs. That means they took a lot of strikes and it means they fouled off a lot of pitches.

Porcello remains a work in progress – he has a lot of plus attributes and never really seems to be THAT far from excellence (except when he’s getting knocked around in the first). And baseball is a funny game – it’s hard to say what’s going to happen on any given night. If you had to pick ONE GAME in that series to watch, would you have picked Friday’s game?? If you had picked, for example, the Verlander-Darvish Thursday duel you would have been sorely disappointed. But Porcello came through… go figure.

May 4, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Detroit Tigers designated hitter Victor Martinez (41) drives in a run with a double during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

So far this year, it’s a different story on the offensive end. The Tigers are not underachieving – they are 4th in the American League with 165 runs scored after 31 games. The Tigers have the highest batting average in baseball and the highest on-base percentage, but are 20th in GiDP with only 24. The Tigers still have all of those red flags that would lead you to expect a high number of double plays, in that the team hits a lot of hard ground balls and doesn’t run particularly well. But… GiDP totals are extremely variable and unpredictable, the impact of a team’s makeup shouldn’t be overstated. Consider that each extra double play means – on average – something like three-quarters of a run, and you can see the impact this would have if sustained. What’s particularly noteworthy, I suppose, is that Torii Hunter has hit into only one double play despite seeing a lot of Austin Jackson on the basepaths in front of him. Tigers reserves Brayan Pena, Don Kelly, Ramon Santiago and Matt Tuiasosopo have combined for exactly zero double plays in 149 plate appearances.

On the defensive end, not much has changed. The Tigers are tied for second-worst in baseball with only 20 double plays turned (the Astros are first with 41). I’m sure that part of this can be chalked up to a pitching staff that hasn’t allowed all that many baserunners (their 1.18 WHIP is best in the AL) and more importantly hasn’t allowed all that many balls in play. I don’t think that would explain it all, though. This is just one of many ways that the Tigers infield defense is hurting their (still very good) chances – but we knew it would be like that going in. At least last year’s embarrassing outfield D has been turned around – by Defensive Runs Saved or Ultimate Zone Rating the Tigers outfield defense is a fair bit above average so far in this young season. Too bad a great defensive play from Torii Hunter isn’t likely to double up the runner that poked a single through the hole between Peralta and Cabrera. Maybe that isn’t entirely fair… by the numbers Fielder and Cabrera have been pretty bad, and should be expected to continue to be pretty bad, but Peralta and Infante have combined for some approximately average glovework (from a statistical perspective). The biggest reasons for the Tigers bad grade overall on defense, from DRS at least, is the work put in by pitchers and catchers.

April 26, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez (19) pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Take a look at these lines here, with pitchers’ names removed

20-5, 4.8 WAR, 2.56 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 211 IP, 205 K, 59 BB
17-8, 7.0 WAR, 2.64 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 231.1 IP, 239 K, 60 BB
16-6, 6.7 WAR, 3.06 ERA, 2.48 FIP, 189.2 IP, 198 K, 45 BB
20-5, 2.9 WAR, 2.81 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 188.1 IP, 142 K, 45 BB
13-9, 5.9 WAR, 3.06 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 232 IP, 223 K, 56 BB
17-8, 4.8 WAR, 3.05 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 192 IP, 192 K, 51 BB

That’s the top 5 starters from last year’s AL Cy Young race (ignoring Fernando Rodney, just like so many voters did) as well as the 2013 Tigers rotation through 30 games despite the fact that it contains a Rick Porcello . Can you tell which one is which? Not exactly obvious. To be fair to the 2013 Tigers, 30 starts is fewer than most Cy Young contenders make. We should really wait until after this short series in DC to decide whether that rotation is as good as or better than any of those unnamed stat lines. The Tigers are the third from the top, second among them in WAR, tops in FIP. Two more starts should get the Tigers rotation over 200 innings and over 200 strikeouts. It could get them up to 18 wins, and maybe even (though I suppose this is not likely) an ERA under 3.00 and a WAR total higher than Justin Verlander’s 7.0. I don’t think it’s fair to say – and probably won’t be fair even if we see a couple of outstanding starts this week – that the Tigers rotation, top-to-bottom, is better than any of the Cy Young competitors last season. But just the fact that it’s comparable???