April 26, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson (14) scores a run against the Atlanta Braves at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Austin Jackson will still need to remain on the disabled list for about nine more days before he’s eligible to return to action, but the good news out of Detroit is that he’s unlikely to need extra time to recover from his hamstring injury. James Schmehl of MLive has a quote from Jim Leyland to this end:

Jackson has been sidelined since May 11 with a strained left hamstring, but he’s “feeling much better,” according to Leyland.

“He’s doing good,” he said. “He should be on time.”

I think many a Detroit Tigers fan would love to see Don Kelly get the heave-ho when Jackson returns, but it’s much more likely that Avisail Garcia — the Tigers’ most MLB ready outfield prospect — will be sent back to the minor leagues. Garcia has an .875 OPS (with a home run) in eight plate appearances since his recall this season, but the organization is going to want him to get more playing time than he’s going to be able to get with the big club.

There’s a (very compelling) argument to be made that he should be starting pretty much everyday in center (instead of platooning with Kelly) right now, but even that argument goes out the window with the eventual return of Jackson. Garcia is (and will be) a better hitter than The Donald, but Kelly is better suited to be the MLB backup right now.

If nothing else, Garcia will join the roster in September when the minor league season ends, and could displace Kelly on a potential playoff roster. Of course, it’s also possible that Garcia is up before then should another injury arise. He’d be first in line to be an everyday outfielder should, say, Torii Hunter hit the disable list.

Oct 26, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder Avisail Garcia (34) during practice the day before game three of the 2012 World Series against the San Francisco Giants at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Though I don’t recall any of our contributors making a loud case for Garcia on next year’s 25 at MCB, I have heard that case made repeatedly elsewhere – that Garcia is a decent option to start in a corner now and that he’s only a breath away from stardom (usually in 2014). I have always been puzzled as to exactly why. Garcia definitely outperformed expectations in his limited time in Detroit last season – particularly strike zone recognition and his approach at the plate (and also BABIP…). There were, however, huge reasons for concern that we saw in September (not just in his minor league track record): he still doesn’t seem to do a great job of actually putting his tremendous tools to use. He’s big, but he doesn’t hit for power. He’s fast, but he doesn’t steal bases and he doesn’t necessarily make the plays in the outfield. He IS young, but typically guys grow into the power and sometimes some of the speed. You might project an increase in home runs based on a skinny guy’s frame, but can you project an increase in home runs for a guy who’s already hulking but hits everything on the ground?

Garcia also saw primarily left-handed pitching as a Tiger, which might be the big reason why his numbers look so bad in the VWL in comparison. Down there he is seeing very, very few lefties – and he’s looking poorly partly as a result. One thing that he’s doing pretty well? He has (at least in this small sample) kept his walk rate up – as he did with Detroit in September and in the playoffs. His 3% walk rates in the minors weren’t going to be good enough as a major leaguer, suggesting (without improvement there) a ceiling something like Jeff Francoeur. His 5 walks in 76 PAs in Detroit and 5 in 59 in the VWL are a real step in the right direction.

We have heard from Dombrowski that he doesn’t want to keep Garcia on the 2013 roster to use sparingly as a reserve, but that he would like to give him the opportunity to win a larger role in Spring Training. This would (I presume) make Andy Dirks Garcia’s backup rather than the other way around, and might be a reason that the Tigers haven’t pushed too hard to sign a right-handed reserve. I don’t think it’s very likely that Garcia will earn that kind of a role or that he will thrive in one if it is handed to him. But… I am no longer convinced that the best place for Garcia to develop is Toledo, the more that I think about it. He is probably ready to make an actual contribution – as a major leaguer – in the kind of role that he was used in last fall. While he would not, I assume, get as much attention from coaches on fundamentals in Detroit – that might not be what it takes for him to make strides. He never showed any inclination to work counts and take pitches prior to showing up in Detroit – but once he got there he got some words of wisdom from a guy named Miguel Cabrera. I suspect that made a difference. If he’s on the roster in 2013 he’ll get plenty more pointers from Miggy as well as clubhouse leader Victor Martinez. He could learn a lot about fielding just from watching how Torii Hunter makes his approach. Could be that being the 4th outfielder would be the best kind of apprenticeship that Garcia could get.

Oct 16, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers designated hitter Delmon Young hits a solo home run against the New York Yankees in the fourth inning during game three of the 2012 ALCS at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Now that we know who the Detroit Tigers’ World Series opponent will be, the San Francisco Giants, and we’re fairly certain who the opposing pitcher will be for game one, left-hander Barry Zito, we can more accurately gauge Jim Leyland’s decision to use his designated hitter in left field in the National League park (where they play by antiquated rules).

Zito being a left hander is very important to this discussion because it sways our answer toward the Delmon end of the spectrum. Assuming that Andy Dirks is locked into one of the corner outfield spots (although perhaps he’s not), the Tigers really have three options: Delmon Young, Quintin Berry, and Avisail Garcia. Let’s run some numbers on each.

First up is Delmon versus Berry. I’m nothing close to being Young’s number one fan, and I think he’s below average as a hitter overall, but he does hit lefties pretty darn well. His .308/.333/.500 slash line for the 2012 regular season compares favorably to his career line, so we’re pretty certain of what we’re getting out of him. Against lefties that’s a respectable on-base percentage and a fair bit of slugging.

Quintin Berry, on the other hand, has not hit lefties well at all. His speed and average defense in left field would be advantageous, but his .214/.237/.357 regular season slash line against southpaws is quite sad. Let’s mix offensive and defensive numbers together.

Young holds the wOBA advantage over Berry (versus lefties) by a .357 to .252 margin. That’s quite a lot. Over four plate appearances (about one game) the expected difference between the two players’ batting lines is equal to about 0.35 runs. Defensively, the disparity runs the other way. Delmon Young has a career UZR/150 in left field of -14.7 runs. That’s very bad, but it’s only about 0.1 runs worse than average in a one-game scenario. In order for Berry to make up his 0.35 run offensive deficiency, he would need to own a UZR/150 that was 52.5 runs better than Young. He’s not close to being that good, which would make him the best outfielder in baseball by a long shot (even if you think Young is quite a bit worse than his career UZR suggests). Adding in base-running would add about 0.08 runs in Berry’s favor, but even so, Delmon is probably worth about 0.17 runs over Berry in the context of game one.

I should apply the caveat that we’re working with relatively small sample sizes, but the actual offensive minus defensive difference between the two players (against a left handed pitcher) is so stark that there looks to be quite a bit of wiggle room.

The choice between Young and Garcia is even trickier because our sample size is whittled down ever further. But, if we stick with the raw numbers, Young had a .026 wOBA advantage in his platoon split versus left-handers, so he’d gain a 0.09 run advantage over the rookie Garcia. In order to believe that, though, we would need to trust that Garcia’s .331 wOBA and/or his .417 BABIP are “real”. I’m not sure that I’m willing to buy that, so the actual difference is likely a bit larger. In order to make up that difference with defense, Garcia would need to sport a UZR/150 of about 13.5 runs better, which is more than plausible, but we appear to be getting to the point where the actual difference between these two options is quite small, if it even exists at all.

But then there’s the fact that Justin Verlander is on the mound for the Tigers. With Verlander, and his ability to rack up the strikeout numbers and record easy outs, you’re probably less concerned about the defense anyway.

You could probably make a fair case for Garcia, but it appears that Young, and all of his deficiencies as a player, is just as good of an option in this one game. Game number two is potentially another story, depending on who starts for San Francisco, but, all things being equal, why not reward the guy that carried the offense for much of the ALCS?