• The good: Torii Hunter and Omar Infante.
• The bad: The bullpen
• The ugly: Marty Foster’s called third strike against the Rays.

MCB Detroit Tigers Podcast #5: Debuting ‘The Good, The Bad and The Ugly’

Podcast feed: http://motorcitybengals.com/category/podcast/feed/

Oct 11, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Detroit Tigers second baseman Omar Infante (4) celebrates in the clubhouse after winning game five of the 2012 ALDS against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. The Detroit Tigers defeated the Oakland Athletics 6-0. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Omar is back, due to the incumbent  ineptitude of the Bengals second-sackers considerably more than his aptitude at the position.  We studied other aspects of the trade that returned Infante to the organization that drafted him here and here, but what did we miss in the 5 seasons he was gone, and will Infante solidify the middle sufficiently?

You may be surprised to hear that Omar turned 31 the day after Christmas – it was 11 long years ago that he got a cup of coffee with the abysmal ’02 Tigers skippered by the forgettable Luis Pujols. (Chris Truby was the starting 3B, and somebody named George Lombard logged 270 PA’s for this team. Worse yet, Lombard was intentionally walked once – I can only hope this was in an interleague game.) Infante represented himself well, with a .333 BA, 3 2B and a HR in 72 AB’s.

He spent most of the next five seasons as a utility man – although he did start 97 games at 2B in 2004 – and while he had his moments, after the 2007 season Dave Dombrowski had no choice but to deal him when the inimitable Jacque Jones became available. He was quickly flipped from the Cubs to the Braves, and in Atlanta his talents flourished.

Omar played in 98 games for the Braves in ’08, split evenly between the infield and outfield, and put up a respectable .293/.338/.416 line, then followed that up with a .305 avg. in an injury-abbreviated ’09. His breakout campaign was 2010 – .321 avg., .775 OPS, and an All-Star game appearance while starting games at 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF and RF.

Worth more than a Jacquestrap at this point, the Braves parlayed Omar and Mike Dunn into slugger Dan Uggla. Infante settled into a role of full-time second baseman in Florida, posting career-typical numbers through 2011 and the first half of 2012 – .275 BA, .712 OPS. The move to 2nd solidified his glovework, with 12 Defensive Runs Saved in 2011 (which he followed up with 6 DRS is 2012, despite a spate of unconscionable errors immediately after the trade to Detroit.)

Compared to the scorching September and spectacular postseason performance of Marco Scutaro, Infante looked pretty pedestrian; statistically, however, they are quite similar, and Scutaro is six years older. Even with hindsight glasses on, it’s hard to be critical of the trade on that basis.

I spent some time pondering the possibility of the Tigers pursuing a different 2B, which would allow Infante to return to his super-sub role. In that case he could be the right-handed portion of the LF platoon, while rendering obsolete the Kelly/Santiago/Worth battle for the end of the bench. In San Fran, Scutaro displaced a pair of potential pivot men – Ryan Theriot and Freddy Sanchez. Theriot would bring some basestealing ability and a better OBP, but likely can’t pick it quite as well as Omar. “Fragile Freddy” is an accomplished batsman, unfortunately he has just averaged 87 games a season over his 10-year career. Other than strengthening the bench, neither would be a significant upgrade.

Slotted into the 9th spot in the order, Infante needs only put up his career average .275, 10 HR, 10 SB season to be a plus offensively. Combined with the supposedly slimmed-down Jhonny Peralta, those 7-hoppers over the mound should be more often converted into an out or two. Doug Fister thanks you in advance.

Unless Mr. Ilitch decides to convert 30 million $5 pizzas into Robinson Cano, Omar will likely be keeping the seat warm for Hernan Perez or Dixon Machado. At this point, I see no reason to complain about that.

Oct 27, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers second baseman Omar Infante hits a single against the San Francisco Giants in the fifth inning during game three of the 2012 World Series at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports

Omar Infante is signed for the upcoming 2013 for $4 million – a relative pittance – but he’ll be a free agent after the year ends, and the Detroit Tigers have few (or no) internal options to replace him.

Ramon Santiago will also be a free agent – assuming he survives this season with the Tigers – but he’s not going to be re-signed, especially not to be the everyday second baseman. Danny Worth could be the everyday second baseman in theory, but he’s not proven that he can hit enough to be more than a bench glove (if even that). Jeff Kobernus might be on the 25-man roster all season as a Rule 5 player, but he doesn’t have a track record as a good hitter at the AA level and below.

There are some possible everyday second base prospects in the Tigers’ system, but they were all in the lower levels of the minor leagues. Hernan Perez played two games in the big leagues last year, but he was really a Hi-A player last year (and a middling one, at that). Eugenio Suarez could be an everyday player in the future (whether it’s shortstop or second base), but it would take a couple of miracles for him to be major league ready in 2014 – more likely he’ll be in Double-A. And Harold Castro will be just 20 years old in 2014 and still a minimum of two years away from the show.

So the Tigers would be hard pressed to find an above replacement level option for 2014, and if someone like Danny Worth was above replacement level, he’d certainly still be below average. The Tigers will likely be preparing for another deep playoff run and won’t be the type of team that could stomach a below-average starter. That leaves Infante – or free agency (or a trade) – as the options. Trades open up a whole new can of worms, so I won’t get into that, but we have a pretty good idea of who the free agents will be. MLB Trade Rumors has the list:

Second basemen

Robinson Cano (31)
Alexi Casilla (29)
Mark Ellis (37) – $5.75MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Mike Fontenot (34)
Aaron Hill (32)
Omar Infante (32)
Nick Punto (36)
Omar Quintanilla (31)
Ryan Raburn (33)
Brian Roberts (36)
Ramon Santiago (34)
Skip Schumaker (34)
Chase Utley (35)
Ben Zobrist (33) – $7MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout

Robinson Cano would be great of course – though he’d cost a fortune (and a draft pick) to sign – and the Tampa Bay Rays will certainly pick up Ben Zobrist’s option. After those two, Infante looks like the best option.

Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree that Infante has been a 2.5 to 3.0 win player in each of the last three years. That type of production would be typically “worth” somewhere between $13 million and $15 million per season. The Tigers could try to extend him for two or three years to try to push the average annual value closer to $10 million, or they could look to present him with a qualifying one-year offer at the conclusion of this season. That offer – probably around $13.5 million – would probably more than the average rate of a multi-year deal, but they’d gain the future flexibility of it being only a one-year commitment. And if Infante were to reject the offer the Tigers would receive a compensation draft pick if he signed elsewhere.

The Tigers probably don’t want to commit too much money and too many years to a guy that would be heading into his age 32 season, but something like two years, $20 million would be a fair deal for the club while representing a 150% increase in Infante’s salary. Perhaps he’d go for something like that.

Obviously the Tigers would want to make sure he doesn’t fall off a cliff next season before committing to him for another couple of season – to say nothing of extending him a qualifying offer – but if he continues to produce at his 2010-2012 rates, they should have no qualms about doing so.