The only club that is clearly a poor team heading into the 2013 season is the newly added American League team the Houston Astros. That isn’t unexpected, as newish GM Jeff Lunhow has been gutting the team the past couple of years in an effort to build from within. So far, so good, on that front, but the major league club is going to struggle big time right now. The rest of the division? It stacks up with any in baseball, and is quite possibly the best. How is it going to shake out?

Here is my prediction for the A.L. West.

First Place- Los Angeles Angels

The Angels were fantastic after adding Mike Trout to the lineup last season. The problem was, Oakland and Texas were just a bit more fantastic and the Angels waited too long to bring Trout up apparently. Along with Trout, Mark Trumbo emerged as a significant piece to the offense as well. Gone from last year’s team is Kendry Morales, Torii Hunter, and super utility guy Maicer Izturis. Those aren’t insignificant losses. Hunter provided leadership as well as a strong bat and glove. Morales provided offense, and Izturiz versatility. This off-season the Angels added Josh Hamilton to the already potent offense, giving the Angels a trifecta of Trout, Hamilton and Albert Pujols which is tough to match.

Pitching is a bit more questionable, however, there is some reason for hope on that end as well. Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson are a very strong 1-2 punch and new addition Jason Vargas has been a very solid #3 starter for the past three years. The real wild card is likely to be another trade acquisition in Tommy Hanson. If Hanson can return to form from a couple of years ago, the Angels are going to be in tremendous shape. They round out their rotation with veteran Joe Blanton, and have some depth with Garrett Richards waiting in the wings, as well as Nick Maronde potentially.

The bullpen is strong, especially if Ryan Madson returns to 2011 form. If not, Ernesto Frieri is more than capable, as is Scott Downs.

Mar 23, 2013; Tempe, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) singles during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Second Place- Seattle Mariners (Wild Card)

This is my surprise pick of the American League. The starting pitching always begins with Felix Hernandez, who is an annual pick to win the A.L. Cy Young award with guys like Justin Verlander, David Price and Jared Weaver. The rest of the rotation isn’t special, but with half of their games in the pitcher friendly Safeco Field, guys like Joe Saunders, Brandon Maurer, and Erasmo Ramirez have solid potential. The bullpen is young, but potentially a shut down type bullpen. Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor have tremendous stuff, as does closer Tom Wilhemsen. Lefties Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush not only can go long, but could potentially all but eliminate left handed hitters late in games. It’s a versatile pen.

Offensively, Seattle has certainly been challenged in recent years. However, its not inconceivable that young bats like Jesus Montero, Dustin Ackley, and Justin Smoak could see some significant improvements. The real optimism for the offense comes from several pickups Seattle made this off-season. Seattle traded for a couple of bats in Kendry Morales and Michael Morse that should improve the Seattle offense immediately. Seattle also added Raul Ibanez, who knows his way around the Seattle clubhouse and is coming off of a strong 2012.

With significant improvements in the offense, a solid rotation and a potentially dominant bullpen, I am going out on a limb here and calling Seattle this year’s version of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles or Oakland A’s.

Third Place- Texas Rangers

I think Texas is still a quality ball club. In fact, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they won the division. The West could be the closest race in all of baseball. I do however, believe that there are enough question marks on this years version of the Rangers to be concerned. Matt Harrison and Yu Darvish are a solid top of the rotation, and Derek Holland has talent, but hasn’t completely put it together, and I’m beginning to wonder if he will. Alexi Ogando returns to the rotation, so there is a question mark there. The bullpen has veterans Joe Nathan and Joakim Soria, but Soria is coming off of injury as is Neftali Feliz at some point.

The offense is going to have to make up for some losses in Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Napoli is replaced by A.J. Pierzynski, while prospect Leonys Martin is likely to get a crack at replacing Hamilton. Veteran Lance Berkman was also added to the mix, but he is coming off injury as well. Prospect Jurickson Profar has received a ton of hype, but veteran Ian Kinsler has expressed reservation about moving, which doesn’t really leave Profar a spot to play with Kinsler and Andrus up the middle.

The loss of Hamilton is huge, and while I think Texas is good right now, and has a real good long term outlook, unless they upgrade the rotation, I don’t see 2013 as being their year.

Fourth Place- Oakland A’s

The A’s had a dream 2012, due in large part to a second half of the season that was just tremendous. The offense was led by Cuban signing Yoennis Cespedes and trade acquisition Josh Reddick. Guys like Seth Smith and Brandon Moss provided timely hits, but the offense is still a clear issue here. The A’s added the enigmatic outfielder Chris Young in the off-season, but he isn’t guaranteed to even start over Coco Crisp. They also recently traded for Jed Lowrie as well, but none of these guys besides Reddick and Cespedes have above average offensive potential.

The rotation is where it’s at for the A’s, but it is young, so there is some question as to whether they can repeat their performance. Jarrod Parker, Tom Milone, A.J. Griffin, and Dan Straily are all second year pitchers. They have a good amount of talent, but with the exception of Parker, they focus more on ability to pitch than get by with stuff. The rotation is anchored by the talented Brett Anderson, but he hasn’t proven he can stay healthy long enough to become the ace the A’s thought he can be.

Fifth Place- Houston Astros

Welcome to the American League West Houston fans, where you really don’t have shot at winning much more than 65 games. As noted in the introduction, the Astros are in the process of a rebuild, and they have sold off almost any veteran piece that had some value on the trade market already. Starting pitcher Bud Norris could very well be next. Help is on the way to the Astros, but more likely in 2015 than now. The starting pitching could have a couple of good arms make an appearance in 2013 in Jared Cosart and Brad Peacock. Ex-first rounder Alex White is going to get a look, while Lucas Harrell and Phillip Humber have a chance to increase their trade value.

The offense is going to bad. I don’t think that is a bold prediction, just reality. Jose Altuve, Brett Wallace, and Justin Maxwell probably have the most potential currently, and some are looking for catcher Jason Castro to break out a bit. Chris Carter, acquired in a deal with Oakland, could provide some pop in the middle of the order. The real intrigue will be later in 2013 when guys like George Springer and Jonathan Singleton could get a look.

*This is where the rankings get tough, because starting with the Cubs, these systems are very good to elite. I have gone back and forth on multiple scenarios, but hey, it’s not life and death, it’s just some pretty awesome farm system rankings.

Top 20:

1. Jurickson Profar(SS)- As everyone who follows prospects knows, Profar is one of the best talents in the game. He does everything well. Projects to hit for average, some power, runs well, and plays above average defense at a premium position. Oh, and he turns 20 tomorrow.

February 17, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Jurickson Profar (13) runs during infield drills during spring training at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

2. Mike Olt (3B)- Olt is a premium defender at third base, but for now is blocked by Adrian Beltre at that spot. His power is hard to ignore, but I do have some concern about how much he is going to hit at the big league level given his proclivity to whiff in the minors. Even still, should be able to produce a pretty robust OPS on a regular basis.

3. Luis Sardinas (SS)- Sardinas is a 19 year old that more than handled himself in low A ball last season. Shows a good idea at the dish with a line drive stroke, and has the frame to grow into a bit more power. He runs at an above average clip, and has the hands, quickness and arm strength to be an above average shortstop defensively.

4. Cody Buckel (SP)- Buckel is working hard on throwing his fastball a little harder, which sits in the low 90′s right now and may limit his ceiling a bit. But he throws strikes with all of his offerings (curve and change), and mixes his pitches well, so he is a good bet to reach his ceiling as a mid rotation starter.

5. Justin Grimm (SP)- Grimm has a very solid three pitch mix which should help him get to his ceiling as a mid rotation starter. His fastball sits low to mid 90′s, and he is able to command the pitch well. His curve ball is a true 12 to 6 curve, though he needs to throw for strikes early in the count more often, and his change up is solid and getting better.

6. Rougned Odor (2B)- Odor just turned 19 and held his own in low A last season. A shortstop early on, Odor has made the move to second base, where he should develop into an above average defender. Odor runs well, but needs to learn the nuances of base running. At the plate, he shows advanced ability for his age, and has some pop in his swing.

7. Martin Perez (SP)- I have Perez ranked a bit lower than most, and that is mostly because of his BB/K ratio. His stuff is strong from the left side, but he has trouble commanding and often falls behind the count. He does generate ground balls with his solid fastball, above average change up and average curve.

8. Luke Jackson (SP)- Jackson’s calling card is his raw arm strength, sitting comfortably in the mid 90′s with his fastball. His command waivers due to some mechanical flaws, and affects his ability to consistently throw his potential second plus pitch his curve ball. His change lags behind, but he has time to develop yet.

9. Leonys Martin (OF)- Martin has the skills to be a productive major leaguer. He knows the strike zone, has above average speed, and plays CF well with good arm strength. I ranked him a bit lower, because I think he falls in love with becoming a power hitter, and his swing can long. Plus he is 25 already.

10. Lewis Brinson (OF)- Brinson is a bit more polished as a hitter as many thought. However, there is some concern about this pitch recognition. His tools are loud though and Brinson projects as a guy who could be a 20/20 type guy in the future with above average defense.

11. Jorge Alfaro (C)- Alfaro is an athletic catcher who at this point is rough around the edges defensively. He has a strong arm, but lacks the catch and throw skills at this point. Offensively, he has really good bat speed and projects to hit for power. He needs to improve his discipline if he is going to hit for average in the future, but his ceiling is really high.

12. Nomar Mazara (OF)- Mazara held his own as a 17 year old in the AZL. Mazara has plus power potential, and his swing and miss tendencies could hold him back as far as hitting for average. He is a solid athlete and has the arm to stick in RF.

13. Joey Gallo (3B)- Gallo obviously has tremendous power after connecting for 22 home runs in short season ball. He also has a great amount of swing and miss in his game, and lacks a defensive position at this point, as he is really rough at third base.

14. Ronald Guzman (1B)- Guzman has loads of potential and should have a plus bat going forward. His frame suggests a guy that will hit for power. He has a better idea at the plate than Mazara and Gallo at this point, but his lack of defensive value has him ranked slightly behind. Not a bad athlete for his size.

15. Neil Ramirez (SP)- Ramirez is a bounce back candidate after struggling in AAA ball last season. He has a solid mid rotation repertoire, but his inconsistency is frustrating from year to year.

16. Nick Williams (OF)- Another athletic outfielder in the Rangers system that has some swing and miss issues, but also has the tools to become a premium player. There is potential here to be an above average major league player if all comes together.

17. Leury Garcia (SS)- The Rangers depth is pretty amazing. The fact that Garcia is 17th on my list says so. He is a pretty darn good prospect. Garcia has above average defensive potential, runs really well, and has surprising pop for his size. If he tones down his aggressiveness at the dish, he could be a top of the order spark.

18. Hanser Alberto (SS)- The middle infielders in the Rangers system are plentiful, and Alberto would rank top 10 in many systems. Does a little bit of everything well offensively while being good enough at short to stick there.

19. Victor Payano (SP)- Payano is a bit rough around the edges, but he has the projection to get a ranking. As a 6’5″ 20 year old lefty, it’s not hard to imagine a guy with plus stuff. His command is an issue right now, but has plenty of time to iron that out a bit.

20. Will Lamb (SP)- Lamb is a power lefty with a low to mid 90′s fastball and potential above average curve. He is still learning how to pitch, however, after splitting time in college. Has command issues to iron out.

Just Missed The List:

Jairo Beras (OF), Odubel Herrera (2B/SS), Ramon Mendez (SP), and C.J. Edwards (SP)

Beras hasn’t played yet, so this is entirely based off the hype about his talent. Herrera is yet another solid up the middle prospect with good tools. Mendez has to stay away from the injury bug, but has good stuff and might end up as a high end bullpen guy. Edwards really burst on the scene last year, flashing top shelf stuff.

Sleepers:

Nick Martinez (SP) and Yohander Mendez (SP)

Martinez is a converted shortstop that has a strong arm. Mendez is a projectable left handed pitcher that is likely to get his first taste stateside this year.

Summary:

Obvioulsy the Rangers have a really good farm system, and my belief is that their 10-20 is about as good as it gets in baseball. There is truly some all star potential in the back half of that top 20. Problem is, there is some real concerns with those guys, and they are mostly quite a ways away from the big leagues where a lot can change. Massive ceilings aside, there is a reason I ranked them a bit lower this year.

Profar is clearly a top prospect, but it’s the top 1o that has me concerned. I do believe guys like Olt, Perez, and Martin are going to be useful, if not sometimes good major leaguers. I don’t believe in them nearly as much as most of the experts in the prospect world. That is easily reflected in the Martin and Perez ranking. I still ranked Olt second because there is no clear cut choice to take that spot other than him. I really do like Cody Buckel, but when the best pitching prospect in the system is a likely mid rotation guy at best, there is a gap there that some of the other teams ahead of the Rangers don’t have.

This system could go either way after the 2013 season, largely depending on two things; one, some development of pitching, and two, how well all of the raw high ceiling players in their system adapt as they move up the ladder.

October 1, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Michael Young (10) is congratulated by teammates after hitting a solo home run off of Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Jarrod Parker (not pictured) during the fourth inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Not only did yesterday’s results – the A’s beating the Rangers, and Orioles and Yankees both winning – not decide who the Tigers would face in the first round of the playoffs, it didn’t eliminate any of the four teams from contention. We only have one day of regularly scheduled baseball left to play, but the AL East and West races are still undecided. The tiebreak scenarios I laid out yesterday are still in play, but I thought it would be fun to put some percentages on each team’s chances to meet the Tigers in the first round.

Here are my underlying assumptions (1) that the New York Yankees have a 60% chance of beating Boston today. (2) That the Rangers-Athletics game is a 50-50 toss up. (3) That the Orioles-Rays game also has 50-50 odds. (4) That a Game 163 between New York and Baltimore (which would take place in Baltimore) would carry 50-50 odds for both sides. (5) That the actual percentages are close enough to these that it doesn’t much matter.

Baltimore Orioles

This one’s the easy one because they would lose the tiebreak with either Oakland or Texas, and it’s impossible that they finish with a better record than either one, so Baltimore would be guaranteed to be the two seed in the AL if they win the East. In order to win the East they need to win today, have New York lose today, and beat New York in Game 163. Odds on this are (0.5 x 0.4 x 0.5) = 10%.

New York Yankees

The Yankees’ odds of drawing the Tigers are also pretty easy to figure. If they win today they’ll finish with the best record in the AL, and they hold the tiebreaker over the Rangers, so the only way they end up as the number two seed is if they win the division and end up tied with Oakland. There are two ways for this to happen: Oakland wins, the Yankees lose, and Baltimore loses (0.5 x 0.4 x 0.5 = 10%) or Oakland wins, Yankees lose, Baltimore wins, Yankees win Game 163 (0.5 x 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 5%). Summing those two scenarios together yields the chance of a Tigers-Yankees matchup: 15%.

Oakland Athletics

Oakland holds the potential tiebreaker over both Baltimore and New York, so they can’t be the Tigers’ opponent if they win their division but end up tied with the AL East winner. So, in order for Detroit to play Oakland, the A’s would have to beat the Rangers tonight, and New York would have to beat Boston. Odds here are (0.5 x 0.6) = 30%.

Texas Rangers

For Texas it comes down to the fact that they can’t beat out New York should both win their divisions. The Yankees hold the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage and they can’t pass them in the AL standings. So Texas ends facing Detroit as long as they win their division and New York wins the East. Three ways That happens: Texas wins and New York wins (0.5 x 0.6 = 30%), Texas wins, New York loses, and Baltimore loses (0.5 x 0.4 x 0.5 = 10%), or Texas wins, New York loses, Baltimore wins, and New York wins Game 162 (0.5 x 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 5%). Those possibilities sum to a 45% overall chance of Texas meeting Detroit in the ALDS.