Baseball can be difficult to predict, but part of the fun of a new season is doing just that…predicting. So without further delay, I will put my predictions out there for all to see and make fun of starting with the American League East, which has long been the power division in all of baseball. Maybe not so much anymore…

First Place: Toronto Blue Jays

I know that Toronto is the en vogue pick win the division, mostly on the back of the massive off-season deal with the Florida Marlins, but they do appear to be the most well rounded team in the division. The starting rotation should be amongst the best in the American League after acquiring R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle to go with Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. There has to be some concern about Johnson and Morrow injury-wise, as both tend to have a bit of trouble staying healthy, but there is some depth in J.A. Happ, Sean Nolin, and potentially Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison later in the year.

Offensively, Toronto added Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Melky Cabrera, and Macier Izturis to what should be potentially the most dynamic offense in the league. It has all the elements, speed, power, and guys that can hit for average. Brett Lawrie, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion anchor the offense, and there is good depth as well. Bonifacio and Anthony Gose will provide a ton of speed off the bench, and young players like Moises Sierraappear to be on the verge of being quality contributors.

Feb 24, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Jose Reyes (7) before a spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles at Florida Auto Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Second Place: Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)

Tampa Bay is far from a complete team, but they have been that way for a long time. Offensively, they will still be challenged, but I think there is some improvement to be had. Desmond Jennings could conceivably be much better, and trade acquisition Yunel Escobar might be a real good fit for Tampa. Certainly better than Reid Brignac. The offense will largely depend on Evan Longoria much like it has in the past, but it got one of the best prospects in the game in Wil Myers in the James Shields trade. If the Rays need some offense, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Myers playing by the time June rolls around.

Pitching has always been the hallmark of the Rays contending teams, and this season will be no different. Current Cy Young winner David Price anchors a tremendously talented staff that still goes about seven or eight deep after the trade of James Shields, giving the Rays trade options at the deadline should they need a bat. Jeremy Hellickson doesn’t have fantastic peripherals but he is really good at not allowing runs. Matt Moore has a Cy Young type arm. Alex Cobb looks to be a quality back of the rotation option, and Jeff Niemann is a quality fifth starter if he can stay healthy. The bullpen is always top notch, and I personally believe that Joe Madden is one of the best managers in baseball.

Third Place: Boston Red Sox

Counting the Red Sox out because of their rough 2012 is a mistake in my opinion. Their starting rotation is going to largely depend on Jon Lester bouncing back, but I believe he will. They added Ryan Dempster in the off-season, and the trade from 2012 brought them the talented Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster in return. While the rotation is probably the team’s weak point, the bullpen should be a strength. The Red Sox acquired closer Joel Hanrahan and have quality arms like Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, and Koji Uehara at the back end as well.

Offensively, I think the Red Sox could be one of the best in the American League. Veterans like Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and David Ortiz lead the offense. The talented Will Middlebrooks will be with the team all year, and the Red Sox added Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli to the clubhouse.

I think that is the last important part. The clubhouse will be different, and the Bobby Valentine disaster is over. That could have as big an effect as anything.

Fourth Place: New York Yankees

I think people have been wanting to write the Yankees off for the past couple of years. They are aging no doubt, but yet they still find ways to win and make the playoffs. I think this is the year we see the Yankees struggle. They are going to be without a big portion of the middle of their order early on in Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixera. Injuries have gotten so bad that the Yankees just took a flier on the ex-Tiger Brennan Boesch. Still, with Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano around, nobody can count the Yanks out.

The pitching is another story. I think the Yankees have a strong staff, albeit pretty reliant on two aging guys in Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte, though neither of them looked like they slowed down much in 2012. C.C. Sabathia of course will likely be a Cy Young candidate, while Phil Hughes seems to be improving. The Yankees pitching might keep their heads above water until their offense returns. It’s going to have to.

Fifth Place: Baltimore Orioles

Truth be told, a good deal of Baltimore’s success last season was based upon luck. Their record in one run games was so good they outplayed their Pythagorean record by 11 games, which is almost unheard of.

Looking at the rotation Baltimore is going to start 2013 with, I struggle to see how it can repeat their success in 2013. Jason Hammel had an outstanding season, and I just don’t see that again. Same goes for Wei-Yin Chen. Chris Tillman was at one time a big time prospect, so he has talent, but guys with his K rate rarely sustain the kind of year he had last year. There is some depth here as Jake Arrieta, Steve Johnson, Miguel Gonzalez, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, and Tommy Hunter all got starts last year. Waiting in the wings are two fantastic prospects in Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, but they are more likely to stick out 2013 in the minors.

Offensively, the Orioles do have some talent in Adam Jones and Matt Wieters, who are amongst the best at their position in all of baseball. Third base future superstar Manny Machado came up and surprised last season when most thought he wasn’t ready. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a sophomore slump. First baseman Chris Davis and RF Nick Markakis offer solid bats as well, but their is a lack of depth should the Orioles suffer some injuries. Defensively, I like their mix, especially at SS with J.J. Hardy, Wieters, and Markakis.

Summation:

The A.L. East is still going to have a couple good teams, and while the Red Sox is a bit of a bold prediction at third place considering their pretty questionable rotation, I just think the Yankees have too many problems early in the season to bounce back, and the Orioles were far too lucky last season to have another year like that. I think Tampa and Toronto are clearly the two best teams in the division, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see separation that we don’t normally see from the top to bottom in the East.

*This is where the rankings get tough, because starting with the Cubs, these systems are very good to elite. I have gone back and forth on multiple scenarios, but hey, it’s not life and death, it’s just some pretty awesome farm system rankings.

Top 20:

1. Wil Myers (OF)- Myers might be the best position prospect in the minors. It depends on who you talk to. For my money, Myers looks the part of a prototypical right fielder who could be a regular All Star. His power is well above average, he shows patience at the dish, has an above average arm, and is even athletic enough that he can play center field. He does strike out a good deal, but should have a substantial offensive impact in a clean up role.

2. Taylor Guerrieri (SP)- I love Guerreri. I think he has number one type potential. His fastball should be plus down the road, along with a potentially plus curve ball. His change should at least be solid, and his delivery is good as well lending to above average command for his age. Plus, he is being developed by Tampa.

3. Chris Archer(SP)- Archer started throwing more strikes last season, and it paid off with a couple of cameos in the bigs last year. He still isn’t where he needs to be as far as command goes, but I think his mid 90′s fastball and sharp slider are good enough that he can get by walking four per nine. His change is a bit below average, but has improved.

Sep 29, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Chris Archer (22) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the eighth inning at U.S. Cellular Field. The Rays beat the White Sox 10-4. Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

4. Enny Romero (SP)- Romero already sits mid 90′s from the left hand side with his fastball. He pairs that with a curve that shows plus as well. His change has to come along, as does his command, but he has top of the rotation potential.

5. Jake Odorizzi (SP)- Odorizzi’s stuff isn’t eye-popping, but it’s at least average across the board with a low 90′s fastball, a good curve, solid slider and change up. He mixes his pitches well, and he commands all of his offerings also. His fly ball tendencies are a bit worrisome, but he is likely a long time starter in the majors.

6. Blake Snell (SP)- Snell is a tall lanky lefty that has a plus fastball that will likely sit mid 90′s upon full maturity as it already touches there now. His change up already flashes as plus, and generates a good deal of swings and misses thrown with good arm action. His slider lags a bit behind at this point, but he flashes a good one of those as well.

7. Alex Colome (SP)- Colome has made himself into a better pitcher in the past year, but his command waivers on him from time to time, which holds him back. His stuff is fantastic. Colome owns a power fastball that sits 92-95, and can touch higher, as well as a sharp curve ball. His change up shows promise as well.

8. Richie Shaffer (3B)- I think Schaffer eventually moves to LF, but the bat should play there rather easily. I see Schaffer as a guy who hits for average and power, though striking out a good deal as well as his swing can get long from time to time. He is pretty athletic, and with a strong arm, might have RF potential as well.

9. Drew Vettleson (OF)- Vettleson’s profile might be a bit boring as a solid tools across the board player, but I think he is a bit more than that. I do believe he has above average regular potential. He has a good idea at the plate, generates good bat speed, and has ability to hit for average and power as he progresses. He is a good athlete as well with good instincts, and also possesses a strong throwing arm.

10. Hak-Ju Lee (SS)- Lee is tremendously athletic, and from what most people say, he is ready to play shortstop defensively in the big leagues right now. That ability alone means that Lee is going to be a big leaguer for quite some time. Add to that his ability to wreak havoc on the basepaths, and we have a potential above average player. His downfall is getting on base to begin with, and I don’t believe he is going to be much more than a .230 type hitter with little power.

11. Jeff Ames (SP)- Ames is a power righy that performed tremendously in 2012. His fastball sits low to mid 90′s, and should be a plus offering down the road. He also owns a potential plus slider, and a solid change up. He threw more strikes in 2012, and if he continues down that path, he has a number two type ceiling. Great pitchers frame.

12. Jake Hager (SS)- Hager had himself a really nice season in 2012, putting him into the serious prospect discussion. Hager shows good ability at the plate, especially with pitch recognition and contact skills. He doesn’t own a bunch of power, but could be a doubles and triples machine down the road. Defensively, he has the chops to stick at short and be an above average performer there.

13. Felipe Rivero (SP)- Rivero is just the next lefty in a long line of power lefties the Rays seem to have a knack for developing. Rivero’s fastball sits comfortably in the low 90′s, playing up a bit because of really good command. His curve also has above average potential as well, and he is still developing his change. One to watch in 2013.

14. Mikie Mahtook (OF)- Mahtook is an interesting guy. He has some really nice tools. He has above average speed, a good strong arm, and some pop in his bat. His production lacks a bit though, and it might simply be because he needs to tone down his aggressiveness at the plate. If he can be a bit more selective, Mahtook should hit for extra base power.

15. Ryan Brett (2B)- I know his PED suspension has hurt him when it comes to rankings, but Brett is a really good player. His line drive stroke, coupled with his selectively aggressive approach at the plate has me believing he has .300 potential as a hitter. He also has tremendous instincts and good speed on the base paths as well. Defensively he should be plenty solid at second.

16. Tyler Goeddel (3B)- Goeddel is long and lanky physically, and for now has pretty good athleticism. His running should taper off as he fills out, but he has the ability to stick at third base defensively down the road. Due to his frame there is some power projection to dream on, and Goeddel does show some patience at the dish for a youngster. Has a pretty high ceiling if all goes well.

17. Jesse Hahn (SP)- I got some pretty glowing reports on Hahn from the New York-Penn League in 2012, so I am going to get him on the list. Hahn possesses a mid 90′s fastball that he throws with good downward plane, generating ground balls. He pairs it with a plus curve. Health is a concern, and he is 23 already, so he is going to have to prove it at higher levels in 2013.

18. Joshua Sale (OF)- Sale is another guy that got hit with a PED suspension in 2012. Before that, he looked like a guy that was improving a good deal after a miserable 2011. Sale isn’t a very good athlete, so his future is likely in LF or 1B, but his bat should have the kind of OPS production that you look for in those spots. Power and patience are his two plus abilities.

19. Todd Glaesmann (OF)- Glaesmann was named the Rays minor league player of the year in 2012. He is a good athlete, whose power is his calling card, as well is his strong throwing arm. He will have to continue to make strike zone improvements if he is going to reach his ceiling as an every day right fielder.

20. Andrew Toles (OF)- Toles is a really good athlete that should fit nicely in center field. He shows good contact ability at the dish, though he could stand to be more patient. If he could draw a few more walks, he could be a top of the order dynamo who steals bags, and has gap power. His speed allows him to cover a bunch of ground in center, where he has an average arm.

Just Missed The List:

Tim Beckham (2B), Parker Markel (SP), Granden Goetzman (OF), Patrick Leonard (3B), and Oscar Hernandez (C)

Beckham still has plenty of tools despite being a bit disappointing. Markel has good stuff and mid rotation potential. Goetzman just needs to stay healthy but he has everything needed to be a good right fielder. Leonard has a bunch of thunder in his bat, as does Hernandez from the catching position.

Sleepers:

Oscar Armenta (SP), Johnny Eierman (OF), and Yoel Araujo (OF)

Armenta has an advanced ability to pitch at his age, and could be the next in the line for talented lefties. Eierman is a good athlete who has yet to put things together in part due to injury. Araujo was a big bonus guy from a couple of years ago who showed some improvement in 2012.

Summary:

No system goes deeper than the Rays. Their 50th ranked prospect could be considered legitimate. That might be going a bit far, but the system is loaded with talent. Presently, the pitching is a bit stronger up top, but there is enough hitters at the lower levels with some real good tools to believe that there is going to be quite a few starters in that bunch in a few years.

Given the Rays fiscal constraints, the system has to produce, and it looks like it is going to do so for years to come.

The baseball playoffs always have something to do with post-season awards talk quieting as well. After all, there are some dramatic games going on, and always some controversial umpire’s calls to talk about. Lost in all of the triple crown, MVP, and playoffs madness has been the discussion of who should be the Cy Young award winner for the American League. And this race is just as contentious as the MVP.

As I see it, there are essentially three players vying for the A.L. Cy Young award; David Price, Justin Verlander, and ex-Tigers closer Fernando Rodney. Where is Jared Weaver you may ask? Eliminated from my discussion. Weaver of course is going to get some votes, and he should, simply because he was tied with David Price for the league lead in wins. The problem with Weaver is that he didn’t take the ball every fifth day this season like Verlander, Price, and Felix Hernandez. You could certainly mention Chris Sale in this conversation as well, but a fade late in the season takes him out of the conversation.

Oct 6, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander throws a pitch against the Oakland Athletics during game one of the 2012 ALDS at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Here is a look at the contenders:

Justin Verlander

Positives:

Verlander is the advanced metrics king. According to Fangraphs, he led all A.L. pitchers in WAR. But careful Tigers fans, if you use this as a reason for his winning the award, don’t you have to do that for Trout and the MVP? So I won’t use WAR. Verlander led the league in innings pitched and strikeouts again this season. Nobody is a bigger anchor for their team, and the Tigers cashed in by getting into the playoffs. That is of course only going to help Verlander’s case. On top of the innings and strikeouts, Verlander finished second in ERA to Price.

Negatives:

Verlander doesn’t have the wins in 2012 that several other pitchers posted. In fact, not only was he behind David Price and Jared Weaver, who had 20, Verlander finished behind Matt Harrison who had 18. Seventeen wins for a starting pitcher is certainly nothing to sneeze at, and we at MCB realize that wins are just a function of the rest of the team during a pitcher’s starts. However, if history shows us anything, the voters for these awards typically like wins, sans Felix Hernandez’ dominant statistical season of a few years ago.

David Price

Positives:

Leading the league in wins is clearly a positive for the Rays ace. Not only did Price lead the league in wins, but he also led the the league in ERA as well. That’s two heads of the pitching triple crown, and it’s not like Price doesn’t strike out any batters either. He finished with 205. Another positive I saw with Price is consistency. His month-to-month production was amazing, only going over a 3.00 ERA once in June, and that was at 3.29. Other than that, his ERA was consistently below 2.75.

Negatives:

None really to speak of this season. He has the wins, the ERA, and was really consistent. I guess the only negative of Price is that his team didn’t make it into the playoffs, and sometimes that can have an affect on these things. Price was excellent in September though, going 4-0 for the Rays.

Fernando Rodney

Positives:

Rodney literally had one of the best seasons ever for a closer. Not in terms of the sheer number of saves, but everything included adds up to a phenomenal season. First of all, he saved 48 of 50 games. While that number was second to the Orioles’ Jim Johnson, Rodney was more dominant in terms of strikeout rate and K/BB ratio. Rodney struck out slightly more than a batter per inning, but it was his K/BB ratio of a little more than 5.00 that showed his true dominance. Oh, and his ERA of 0.60 is so miniscule, even Yankee great Mariano Rivera has never approached that number. Rodney’s WHIP of 0.777 and BA against of .167 with an OPS against of .417 further tell the dominance story. His ERA+ number? 634! One hundred is average for that number.

Negatives:

Perception and reputation. Rodney doesn’t have the best reputation, and because of that it’s going to be difficult to win the award. Like Price, not making the playoffs doesn’t help either. I will say this. If this season was put in by Mariano Rivera, and I checked (he’s never had ERA numbers this dominant, and bested that WHIP only once), I think Rodney would win. Oddly enough, Rivera’s best season in 2008 resulted in a fifth place finish in the Cy Young voting. Relievers have a tough mountain to climb to win the award.

Who I think will win:

David Price. I think Price wins, not because he obviously had the best season, but because of the consistency. Verlander was consistent as well, but August was tough for Verlander, as he posted an ERA of 3.53 that month. Those couple of bad starts could cost him the award. Verlander’s September was great, and that will help his cause, but him winning the award last year, as well as the MVP isn’t going to help. It’s difficult to repeat, if for no other reason than the writers wanting to give it to someone different.

Who should win:

With all due respect to Justin Verlander, who I believe is the best pitcher in baseball, I might be in the minority and will say Fernando Rodney should win this award. I tend to believe the Cy Young award should go to a starter, but this season is different. No starter in particular has stood above the others. With Verlander, Price, Hernandez, Weaver, and Chris Sale all posting great numbers, it’s become a muddled mess of excellence. Rodney’s excellence this season stood out. Yes, Jim Johnson had a phenomenal year, but he is missing the dominance aspect that Rodney had.