June 18, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) pitches in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Verlander has been known as the ace of the Detroit Tigers’ staff the last half-decade plus, and for good reason. Verlander has been absolutely dominant over his career so far, and has been the definition of an ace: he wins a lot of games, pitches well and deep into games, and has a knack for getting a win when the team needs one the most. This season, however, has been another story as far as Verlander being the ace of the staff. It can actually be argued he has been the fifth best starting pitcher for the Tigers, at least excluding April.

It has been clear so far in 2013 that Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez have pitched better than Justin Verlander – this is almost inarguable. Doug Fister also has a  better ERA, but a touch less WAR according to Fangraph’s version of the statistic. The dark horse here is Rick Porcello. If we look at all of the five pitchers most recent starts, meaning we exclude April, Justin Verlander has a 5.13 ERA. Anibal Sanchez has a 3.67 ERA, Max Scherzer has a 2.63 ERA, Doug Fister has a 3.68 ERA, and the dark horse, Rick Porcello, has a 2.66 ERA. Now, it’s not exactly fair to leave out April, as Verlander was masterful in the season’s first month, and his worse start of the season was left into these statistics, while Porcello’s was left out. Still, and take it as you may, Justin Verlander has clearly been the Tiger’s fifth best starter for nearly two months now.

This is not a put-down to Justin Verlander, or a reason to freak out; to me, it’s actually more of a good sign. The Tigers have been winning lately – they are 10-6 so far in June – even without their best pitcher, and arguably still the best pitcher in baseball, pitching well. The other four starters have come up huge this year, especially Sanchez and Scherzer. If Scherzer continues to dominate the way he has the last two months (the last month especially), he may very well get the nod to be the all-star starter. Sanchez is on pace to have a career year, as is Porcello, and Fister is minding his own business with a very solid 3.28 ERA for the season. If these four can keep up their pace while Verlander gets back on track, the Tigers could very well be going to the World Series for a second straight year.

Alex Avila has struggled at the plate in support of Rick Porcello, who has received almost two fewer runs in support from the Detroit offense than the rest of the starting rotation. (Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports)

The Detroit offense has averaged a healthy 5.5 runs per game in those pitched by one of their top four starters. But in support of their fifth starter, Porcello, they have scored an average of just 3.6. Two of their offensive shutouts have come with him on the mound, and they have lost four games he has started by just one or two runs.

While the Tigers never really play a defensive-minded game, one might reason that manager Jim Leyland has inadvertently sabotaged his offense in Porcello starts by playing reserves like Don Kelly and Ramon Santiago. But Kelly has only started three out of ten games Porcello has, and Santiago has been in for just two. That’s not the problem.

One lineup feature that could be a significant factor is the catcher. Alex Avila, batting .182, has caught Porcello eight times, while Brayan Pena, who has started behind the plate 17 times and is hitting .291, has caught him only twice. Indeed, in games with Porcello throwing, Avila has gone 2-for-22 (.091) at the plate with two singles, five walks, nine strikeouts, one run, one batted in, and three double plays. That’s dismal production.

Of course, you can’t blame the woes of the Tiger offense with Porcello on the mound solely on one player. You also have to consider that Avila’s catching has a bit to do with the way Porcello pitches. But Avila has created a sort of black hole in the lineup, leaving 15 runners on in addition to the ones he has erased on doubles plays.

Beyond him, the issue is a bit more complicated. Porcello has generally matched up with sub-par pitchers—guys like Mike Pelfrey, Mark Buehrle, Garrett Richards, and Kevin Gausman. The best he has faced this year are Kris Medlen, Zach McAllister, Nick Tepesch, and Jeanmar Gomez. Against those pitchers, players like Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Victor Martinez should be picking up any slack Avila may create.

It seems like a longstanding and mysterious trend that the Tigers struggle against mediocre pitchers. Maybe it’s a myth, as there aren’t really accessible stats to support the idea. Maybe it will balance out as the season goes on, and Porcello will win the games he deserves. For now though, maybe his catcher could buy him dinner once or twice.

The offense was fine, but the potential misuse of the bullpen cost the Tigers both games they dropped in this series. Supporters of the closer role will say that the first game was lost by Jose Valverde, while Jim Leyland haters will say that it was his fault; I will say that Valverde was put into a position to fail by going against the middle of the lineup against the Orioles, which included three dangerous left-handed batters, not even including the one – Chris Dickerson – who hit the walk-off winner. The blame doesn’t go on Valverde, or even Jim Leyland, but  on baseball in general. Unless a team has a shutdown closer that is good versus both lefties and righties, it is my belief that the ninth inning should be handled by whichever pitcher(s) have the best platoon advantage against the upcoming hitters. In the ninth inning of that game, that was definitely not Jose Valverde, who has shown to be much better against righties than lefties. Drew Smyly, Darin Downs, or Phil Coke should have been handling the ninth inning in that game, and more likely than not, the Tigers would have come out of it with a win to start the series, but instead ended up wasting a third great start in four games by their starting pitchers.

Jun 02, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Rick Porcello (21) throws in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

In the second game, the Tigers aforementioned fourth inning carried the team to an easy victory, with no bullpen misuse able to ruin a strong start by Justin Verlander. The third game was also a game in which they should have won, but it can definitely be argued whether Rick Porcello should have been facing a left-handed hitting Chris Davis – who happens to be the only challenger so far to Miguel Cabrera’s second consecutive triple crown chase – and another lefty in Chris Dickerson who hit the walk-off home run off of Jose Valverde in the first game. It has been well documented that Rick Porcello struggles versus lefties, and struggles in general as his pitch count gets closer to 100. Porcello entered the inning at only 87 pitches and had yet to allow a run, so I understand the argument that he should have been left in, but when playing in a bandbox like Camden Yards, and with two lefties coming up who were OPSing 1.324 and .992 against righties coming in, the best move was to bring in a left-handed reliever. Instead, Porcello was left in and allowed a solo home-run to Davis and then back-to-back singles by Dickerson and J.J. Hardy before then being relieved by Coke, who inherited a bases-loaded situation with no outs in a close game – unfair to a reliever who could have started the inning fresh.

The Detroit Tigers could very easily be 5-1 in the last six games, but unfortunately have wasted or blown four of those games and are instead 1-5 in their last 6. Whether it be an offense that literally couldn’t score a run or bullpen misuse, the Tigers wasted multiple strong performances by their starting pitchers in the last two series. Baseball is a sport that tends to even out close outcomes over the course of the season, however, with good teams generally finding ways to win those close games. The Tigers will be fine going forward, and in fact are still in first place in the division. It has been a frustrating two series for the Tigers, but they hope to turn it around against the Tampa Bay Rays starting Tuesday.