But if you’re all honest with yourselves, you know this is true. The Tigers are the most likely team to win the Central in 2013.  But, they have to play the games, and stranger things have happened. You can all come back and laugh at me in the end if they don’t win the division.

Here is a little more than rudimentary look at the A.L. Central and where I think they will finish.

First Place- Detroit Tigers

Yeah, I gave this one away, but I think ESPN, MLB Network and the media alike won’t have to drug test their baseball “experts”, they will just have to find the analyst that actually believes the Tigers won’t win the Central. That analyst is clearly a fan of funny mushrooms, or a glue sniffer. I’m sure there are a couple out there.

There isn’t a ton of analysis to do here. They have the best rotation in the division by far, and their lineup stacks up nicely with the rest of the division, and the league. Yes, there is a question about the closer, but we’ve often seen these things work themselves, and two recent World Series winners in the Cardinals and Giants have done just fine without a guy to start the season. I’m confident someone will emerge, and the Tigers have enough in their system to get one if they need it.

Mar 11, 2012; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Prince Fielder (28) during the game against the New York Mets at Joker Marchant Stadium. The Mets beat the Tigers 11-0. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Second Place- Kansas City Royals

Okay, this isn’t a fashion pick for me. There are a bunch of people who want Kansas City to do well, and will predict it likely so they can say they were on the bandwagon. For me, this is a case where a strong spring could translate into a strong regular season. If you all haven’t noticed, the Royals are destroying people this spring. While it isn’t a predictor, I have to think the good feeling that has to be going on in that clubhouse right now is a positive thing. Guys like Billy Butler and Alex Gordon saw the trade to bring James Shields and Wade Davis over as a sign the front office is serious, and I think it will make a difference in how the team performs on the field.

The rotation is better with Shields and Davis. Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie aren’t world beaters, but can keep a team in a game most nights, and that is really all the Royals need. Why? I think their offense is going to be pretty fantastic. Gordon, Butler, and guys like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are either ripened or ripening to the point where they should be a well above average offensive club. Defensively they are strong, and the bullpen is wicked. Wicked good that is.

I just see a club that can win bunch of 6-4 type games, and they might do it late. Sometimes that is a recipe for a winner.

Third Place- Cleveland Indians

Cleveland has no doubt improved their team this off-season. I am rarely complimentary of the things their front office does, because most of the time, their moves stink. Acquiring Drew Stubbs and Trevor Bauer was a coup in my humble opinion (Is it humble if I know I’m right?). Adding veterans Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn is a good idea. Not only are they good players, but they are winners. Guys that are used to winning, and can maybe explain how to do that to Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall in particular. Mike Aviles was a solid pickup and should provide value. But what I really think could go the right way for the Tribe in 2013 is Carlos Santana just taking off and becoming a masher in the middle of that formidable lineup.

While the lineup looks formidable, the rotation does not on the other hand. There really isn’t one guy in that entire rotation that Cleveland fans can look at and honestly call any better than a middle of the rotation pitcher. And beyond Ubaldo Jimenez and maybe Justin Masterson, even that is a stretch. Until Cleveland can prevent runs from crossing the plate, I can’t go all crazy and start predicting a 2nd place finish.

Fourth Place: Chicago White Sox

Fourth place for the team that took the Tigers to the wire last year? Yep, the White Sox had quite a bit of stuff go very right for them last year. Adam Dunn bounced back. That wasn’t terribly unexpected, but Alex Rios had a real good season, and they got really good contributions out of pitchers like Jose Quintana and Jake Peavy. Quintana came out of nowhere and I don’t expect him to repeat. Peavy? I’m waiting for his arm to fall off any day now. John Danks is a huge question mark. Gavin Floyd is consistently pretty mediocre. Chris Sale logged more innings than he ever has by far, and it is going to be interesting to see how holds up for a second straight year of increased innings.

The Sox lost A.J. Pierzsynski and Kevin Youklis to free agency. Tyler Flowers and Jeff Keppinger “replace” them in 2013. How much more can the Sox take of Gordon Beckham? Which Alexei Ramirez are they going to get? Will Peavy stay healthy? How much will they miss their All Star catcher?

There’s a bunch more questions than answers with this team. It’s too bad, because Paul Konerko is a hell of a hitter, and he should be on a better team so he can get the recognition he deserves.

Fifth Place: Minnesota Twins

My first thought when I started doing this was…do I really have to analyze the Twins? Or can I just say the suck and move on? I’ve been incredibly harsh on the Twins the last few years, and they haven’t done anything to make me eat my words. The best I can say about them right now is I did like their off-season. Getting a couple of guys in their system who can pump a fastball over 90mph is a good start. Plus, the Twins farm system is loaded with a veritable sh*tload of offensive talent. If the Twins don’t make some serious efforts to move Josh Willingham, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau over the summer, they should be slapped in the face by all of their fans. The Twins should be more concerned about gearing up for 2016 than winning now.

They can’t possibly win with the rotation they plan on putting on the mound in 2013.

That may sound harsh, but I actually have a ton of respect for this once great franchise. They aren’t far removed from that success at all, and it’s strange to me that the Twins got away from what made them so good. They were pests. They played the game hard. They played it fundamentally sound.

With new guys like Aaron Hicks starting to break in, I hope they find their identity fast, because I liked it better when the Twins mattered.

Joker Marchant Stadium, Spring home of the Detroit Tigers. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into Sunday’s action, the Tigers’ 13-8 record placed them second in the Grapefruit League. Every member of the American League Central is having a good spring, particularly the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians.

If baseball clustered the teams into divisional standings in spring, the AL Central would look like this as of Sunday morning:

Kansas City   16-4, .800

Cleveland      13-8, .619

Detroit           13-8, .619

Chicago         10-7, .588

Minnesota      11-11, .500

Of course, one could argue that the success of the Royals, Indians and White Sox has been due to the ability to play the Cubs often. Still, should fans get overly excited or upset by a team’s performance in the spring?

We all know the story of the 2012 Tigers. A World Series berth followed a so-so regular season. Spring Training was a smashing success for the team, going 20-8, but it wasn’t until almost six full months later that the team finally caught fire.

One can truly understand Royals’ fans excitement over spring success. Kansas City had a very solid off-season full of good trades and free agent pick-ups. All of this preseason success has allowed fans, who have endured the longest active postseason drought, to dream of October.

The Kansas City Royals have had a successful Spring Training to date. Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

This should not be a strange notion to over-analyze wins in practice games for Tigers’ fans. In the dark days of 1989 to 2005, anything seen as positive, and anything to keep people interested in baseball past Memorial Day, was always a sign for hope.

Indians’ fans are also bursting with hope following their recent transactions and solid spring. Cleveland has not played in the postseason since 2007, which also happened to be their most recent winning season, and resentment is at an all-time high at Progressive Field. The team struggles to fill the park, even in rare moments of recent success. While rushing out to the lead in the AL Central in 2011, and setting a franchise record with a 21-9 record in April, the team struggled to attract fans. This is quite a change for a team that once had 455 consecutive sellouts from 1995 to 2001.

It’s worth noting that the Indians finished in the middle of the pack in the Cactus League in 2011. Couple that with finishing fourth during the regular season of 2010, that incredible start was definitely not foreseen.

Not to throw cold water on the Royals’ hopes, but one only has to go back two years for the last time KC had the best spring training record. Regular season 2011? 20 games under .500.

Since this is a Tigers’ fan site, let’s take a look at recent years of success for the franchise. Was Spring Training an indicator of regular season success?

We already talked discussed last season, so let’s begin with 2011.

2011 Spring Training (20-14), Regular Season (95-67) AL Central title–ALCS berth

2009 ST (15-17), RS (86-77) Lost 163rd Game tie-breaker

2006 ST (18-15), RS (95-67), Wild-Card berth, AL Pennant

1987 ST (9-20), RS (98-64), AL East title

1984 ST (11-17), RS (104-58), AL East title, World Series title

The Cleveland Indians have also had a success spring in 2013. Credit: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

It’s interesting to note that in arguably the best season in franchise history, 1984, the Tigers had the third fewest wins in Grapefruit League play. Three years later, they could only manage a baseball worst nine wins in the spring, but won nearly 100 games and clinched the franchise’s final AL East title.

Now, let’s take a look at some of the worst years in Tigers’ history.

2003 ST (14-17), RS (43-119)

2002 ST(16-15), RS (55-106)

1996 ST (20-10), RS (53-109)

1989 ST (15-16), RS (59-103)

These four seasons stand out as the worst in franchise history, but each Spring Training was respectable–and in one case (1996), down right good. Yet it resulted in the second worst season in franchise history.

So while Tigers’ fans would be crazy to think the team will waltz through the AL Central in 2013, it is also equally crazy for fans in Kansas City and Cleveland to get excited about pre-season success. It means nothing when games are for keeps.

After all, getting excited about preseason success should be the registered domain of us Detroit Lions’ fans.

Top Ten:

1. Kyle Zimmer (SP)- Zimmer has everything you need for a top of the rotation pitcher. Which happens to be what Kansas City needs as well. Anyway, Zimmer has an impressive three pitch mix, and has the ability to command his arsenal as well.

2. Yordano Ventura (SP)- I could care less about the size of Ventura. His fastball and curve ball are nasty enough for me to overlook he doesn’t have an ideal frame. He could use better command, and he could use a better change up, but if he does those things, he is a top of the rotation guy himself.

3. Adalberto Mondesi (SS)- Mondesi has a chance to be the complete package at shortstop. Offensively, he could hit for average and power, while being a good runner as well. Defensively, he has the quickness and the arm strength to be good there as well. Needs to learn the strike zone, but I am going to give a 17 year old a bit of slack on that one.

4. Bubba Starling (OF)- If you follow prospects and are reading this, I probably don’t have to tell you that Starling is a premium athlete. Some opinions vary on whether or not he will be a good baseball players. His tools are loud enough to put up this high though. Was looking forward to seeing him in the Midwest League, but it looks like the Royals move to the Sally.

5. Cheslor Cuthbert (3B)- Didn’t we learn from Wil Myers not to write a guy off too fast? Cuthbert was 19 years old in high A last season. He still has middle of the order potential with his bat, and if anything, it sounds like his defense has gotten a bit better at the hot corner.

6. Sam Selman (SP)- I am a big believer that Selman is one of those guys that has a chance to take off. His fastball is premium from the left hand side, his slider is a potential plus pitch, and he just needs to develop his change further to be a mid rotation guy at least.

7. Jorge Bonifacio (OF)- Bonifacio isn’t a premium athlete, but the reports I got from his play in the Midwest League were very positive about the bat. He makes solid contact on all types of pitches, and projects to have solid power to all fields. He also carries a strong arm with him to the outfield.

8. Kyle Smith (SP)- Smith has a chance to become a mid rotation starter, and almost everything I heard about him has been positive. Good fastball that sits in the low 90′s, flashing an above average curve, and showing some feel for a change as well.

9. Orlando Calixte (SS)- Plate discipline issues might limit Calixte’s offensive upside, which includes some power, however, he is likely to stick at shortstop and be a good defender. That alone can get you on some lists, but the offensive potential adds to it. Just 20 years old in high A last season.

10. Miguel Almonte (SP)- Highly projectable with good stuff already, Almonte has the chance if everything goes right to be a top of the rotation stud.

Just Missed The List:

John Lamb (SP), Cameron Gallagher (C), Jason Adam (SP), and Elier Hernandez (OF)

Lamb is coming off Tommy John, so I want to see how he bounces back. Gallagher has offensive potential, as well as a chance to stick as a catcher. Adam doesn’t look to have the same kind of potential as many thought when drafted, but I still see an inning eating #4 type. Hernandez is very tooled up, but after his performance in 2012, it’s apparent he has a long way to go.

Sleepers:

Christian Binford (SP) and Angel Baez (SP)

Binford is a big kid who of course will have some velocity projection because of it. Baez already has a ton of velocity and just needs a sharper breaking ball and better change to be a real force.

Summary:

I can’t believe how down people are on the Royals system simply because they traded away Myers, Jake Odorizzi, and Patrick Leonard. Yes, that is some talent, but the Royals are still extremely deep though the talent is tied up in a lot of boom or bust prospects. It’s hard not to like guys like Bryan Brickhouse (SP), Alexis Rivera (OF), and Colin Rodgers (SP) as well. The Royals also have guys like Chris Dwyer (SP) and Christian Colon(2B) who have plenty of talent as well.

Aug 18, 2012; Papillion, NE, USA; Omaha Storm Chasers center fielder Wil Myers (8) gets ready for their game against the Nashville Sounds at Werner Park. The Storm Chasers had on OmaHogs jerseys during the special promotional night. Mandatory Credit: Matt Ryerson-USA TODAY Sports

Obviously depth is the strength of this system. There is also a pretty good balance between position guys and pitching as well. Again though, while the ceilings may be high on a lot of these guys, the floor is low as well.

Wil Myers might be gone but I like this system quite a bit still.