Baseball can be difficult to predict, but part of the fun of a new season is doing just that…predicting. So without further delay, I will put my predictions out there for all to see and make fun of starting with the American League East, which has long been the power division in all of baseball. Maybe not so much anymore…

First Place: Toronto Blue Jays

I know that Toronto is the en vogue pick win the division, mostly on the back of the massive off-season deal with the Florida Marlins, but they do appear to be the most well rounded team in the division. The starting rotation should be amongst the best in the American League after acquiring R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle to go with Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. There has to be some concern about Johnson and Morrow injury-wise, as both tend to have a bit of trouble staying healthy, but there is some depth in J.A. Happ, Sean Nolin, and potentially Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison later in the year.

Offensively, Toronto added Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Melky Cabrera, and Macier Izturis to what should be potentially the most dynamic offense in the league. It has all the elements, speed, power, and guys that can hit for average. Brett Lawrie, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion anchor the offense, and there is good depth as well. Bonifacio and Anthony Gose will provide a ton of speed off the bench, and young players like Moises Sierraappear to be on the verge of being quality contributors.

Feb 24, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Jose Reyes (7) before a spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles at Florida Auto Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Second Place: Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)

Tampa Bay is far from a complete team, but they have been that way for a long time. Offensively, they will still be challenged, but I think there is some improvement to be had. Desmond Jennings could conceivably be much better, and trade acquisition Yunel Escobar might be a real good fit for Tampa. Certainly better than Reid Brignac. The offense will largely depend on Evan Longoria much like it has in the past, but it got one of the best prospects in the game in Wil Myers in the James Shields trade. If the Rays need some offense, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Myers playing by the time June rolls around.

Pitching has always been the hallmark of the Rays contending teams, and this season will be no different. Current Cy Young winner David Price anchors a tremendously talented staff that still goes about seven or eight deep after the trade of James Shields, giving the Rays trade options at the deadline should they need a bat. Jeremy Hellickson doesn’t have fantastic peripherals but he is really good at not allowing runs. Matt Moore has a Cy Young type arm. Alex Cobb looks to be a quality back of the rotation option, and Jeff Niemann is a quality fifth starter if he can stay healthy. The bullpen is always top notch, and I personally believe that Joe Madden is one of the best managers in baseball.

Third Place: Boston Red Sox

Counting the Red Sox out because of their rough 2012 is a mistake in my opinion. Their starting rotation is going to largely depend on Jon Lester bouncing back, but I believe he will. They added Ryan Dempster in the off-season, and the trade from 2012 brought them the talented Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster in return. While the rotation is probably the team’s weak point, the bullpen should be a strength. The Red Sox acquired closer Joel Hanrahan and have quality arms like Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, and Koji Uehara at the back end as well.

Offensively, I think the Red Sox could be one of the best in the American League. Veterans like Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and David Ortiz lead the offense. The talented Will Middlebrooks will be with the team all year, and the Red Sox added Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli to the clubhouse.

I think that is the last important part. The clubhouse will be different, and the Bobby Valentine disaster is over. That could have as big an effect as anything.

Fourth Place: New York Yankees

I think people have been wanting to write the Yankees off for the past couple of years. They are aging no doubt, but yet they still find ways to win and make the playoffs. I think this is the year we see the Yankees struggle. They are going to be without a big portion of the middle of their order early on in Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixera. Injuries have gotten so bad that the Yankees just took a flier on the ex-Tiger Brennan Boesch. Still, with Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano around, nobody can count the Yanks out.

The pitching is another story. I think the Yankees have a strong staff, albeit pretty reliant on two aging guys in Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte, though neither of them looked like they slowed down much in 2012. C.C. Sabathia of course will likely be a Cy Young candidate, while Phil Hughes seems to be improving. The Yankees pitching might keep their heads above water until their offense returns. It’s going to have to.

Fifth Place: Baltimore Orioles

Truth be told, a good deal of Baltimore’s success last season was based upon luck. Their record in one run games was so good they outplayed their Pythagorean record by 11 games, which is almost unheard of.

Looking at the rotation Baltimore is going to start 2013 with, I struggle to see how it can repeat their success in 2013. Jason Hammel had an outstanding season, and I just don’t see that again. Same goes for Wei-Yin Chen. Chris Tillman was at one time a big time prospect, so he has talent, but guys with his K rate rarely sustain the kind of year he had last year. There is some depth here as Jake Arrieta, Steve Johnson, Miguel Gonzalez, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, and Tommy Hunter all got starts last year. Waiting in the wings are two fantastic prospects in Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, but they are more likely to stick out 2013 in the minors.

Offensively, the Orioles do have some talent in Adam Jones and Matt Wieters, who are amongst the best at their position in all of baseball. Third base future superstar Manny Machado came up and surprised last season when most thought he wasn’t ready. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a sophomore slump. First baseman Chris Davis and RF Nick Markakis offer solid bats as well, but their is a lack of depth should the Orioles suffer some injuries. Defensively, I like their mix, especially at SS with J.J. Hardy, Wieters, and Markakis.

Summation:

The A.L. East is still going to have a couple good teams, and while the Red Sox is a bit of a bold prediction at third place considering their pretty questionable rotation, I just think the Yankees have too many problems early in the season to bounce back, and the Orioles were far too lucky last season to have another year like that. I think Tampa and Toronto are clearly the two best teams in the division, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see separation that we don’t normally see from the top to bottom in the East.

Top Ten:

1. Aaron Sanchez (SP)- Has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter. Owns three pitches in fastball, curve, and change. Needs to command better as he moves up the ladder, but Sanchez is talented and most think he will be fine in this regard.

2. Roberto Osuna (SP)- Osuna is a big bonus baby from Mexico, and last season he showed why. Doesn’t have the physical projection you look for out of a teenager, but his polish at this stage makes up for it. The stuff isn’t bad either.

3. Marcus Stroman (P)- Stroman moved quickly last season before getting suspended for using a banned substance. His fastball/slider combination will get him to the big leagues, the change up will determine whether that is as a starter or reliever.

4. Alberto Tirado (SP)- Tirado is a name that popped up on radar screens this past season, and I am being aggressive with him for a reason. Tirado sits low 90′s and can get his fastball higher. He also has a good feel for a slider and change as well. Still some projection on the frame as well.

5. Daniel Norris (SP)- Norris had some issues last season to say the least, but it’s not like he isn’t a talented lefty still. Just might take Norris a little longer than originally thought. Should have a plus fastball and change up down the road.

6. D.J. Davis (OF)- Davis is all about tools at this point, and he has plenty of them. Speed is the best asset, but he has some pop as well. There is some work to do with pitch recognition and discipline, but he isn’t allergic to walks. Top of the order potential.

7. Sean Nolin (SP)- I’ve seen Nolin numerous times, and always put him in the “solid” type category. Reports were his stuff took a step forward in the past year or so, so maybe there is some mid-rotation potential here. Big, strong, lefty with solid mix.

8. Matt Smoral (SP)- I would like to see Smoral on the mound before I rank him any higher, but in this system, almost everyone is a crapshoot because they are almost all in short-season leagues. Smoral has a plus fastball and potentially a plus slider.

9. Christian Lopes (2B)- Lopes is one of the young Jays that showed some feel for hitting in 2012. Lopes has solid tools, and could eventually carry an above average bat to 2B with him every day. There is some pop, and Lopes could steal 10 to 15 annually as well.

10. Chase DeJong (SP)- There are guys with bigger arms in the Toronto system, but DeJong’s arm isn’t chopped liver. He combines a good feel on the mound with a low 90′s fastball and quality curve ball. If he could add a bit of velocity, he could move up this list.

Just Missed The List:

Santiago Nessy (C), Dwight Smith Jr. (OF), Yefry Del Rosario (SP) John Stilson (P)

Nessy is a defensive catcher at this point, but he does have some thunder in his bat. I’m not down on Smith after a tough start to his career, still believe he can hit. Del Rosario is another young Latin pitcher to look out for, got positive reports on him from the GCL. Stilson has top 10 stuff, but his injury history and delivery are concerns.

Sleepers:

Dawel Lugo (SS) and Jairo Labourt (SP)

Picking sleepers in this system is no easy feat. The Jays have a bunch of them. I heard good things about Lugo despite his pretty anemic numbers in the GCL. Labourt is a projectable lefty with a live arm, still learning how to throw strikes, let alone command.

October 20, 2012; Hattiesburg, MS, USA; Southern Miss Golden Eagles quarterback Anthony Alford (2) limps off the field in the third quarter during the game against the Marshall Thundering Herd at M.M. Roberts Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook – USA TODAY Sports

Summary:

It almost pains me to put a system like this at 21. Why? Because I’ve said before, I favor high ceiling players over safer picks. Toronto has boatloads of them. Guys like Adonys Cardona haven’t done as well as expected, but there is still time for them. Matt Dean is another that I haven’t given up on. There are plenty of guys in this group that I could name, but the problem is almost all of Toronto’s higher level talent is residing in the lower level of the minors right now. There is no organizational balance. Of course, this largely due to the amount of talent they have recently traded away this off-season, and due to some graduation. That doesn’t mean this next wave of talent won’t be interesting, however, and athletes like D.J. Davis and Anthony Alford bear some watching.

The first move by the Jays was the stunning salary dump of a trade made by the Florida Marlins. Well, not technically first, I thought the pickup of Esmil Rogers was a solid one for the Jays. I know why the Marlins made the deal. As their owner mentioned, they were a last place team. Much to the angst of Marlins fans everywhere, Loria wasn’t willing to give it another chance.  Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle are some real good players, even if they couldn’t push the Marlins to the top. Emilio Bonifacio isn’t so bad himself.

Yesterday, the Jays added Melky Cabrera to that impressive mix. Melky was one of my personal targets for the Tigers. My reasoning was simply that he wouldn’t require a long term contract and a lot of money. He didn’t get either from the Jays, and the payoff could be substantial. If Cabrera is even 80% of what he was in 2012, it’s a big time addition for the Blue Jays.

When looking at the Jays lineup, one can see an incredibly powerful and diverse one through nine. You have the power of Colby Rasmus, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, and J.P. Arencibia. They have guys that can run and handle the bat as well. Jose Reyes, Maicer Izturis, Bonifacio, and Rajai Davis can all run, bunt, and in general wreak havoc teams in multiple ways.

I didn’t even mention Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie.

Oct 16, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers former player Jack Morris waves to the crowd before game three of the 2012 ALCS between the New York Yankees and the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The starting rotation consists of Johnson, Buehrle, Ricky Romero, and Brandon Morrow. Competition will decide the last spot as of now, but this is where the Jays could get even better. Right now, they have J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek likely to fight it out.

The real kicker is, that even though the Jays dealt seven talented players to the Marlins in return, they have plenty of young talent left. I don’t see the Jays and GM Alex Anthopolous stopping now. They have the bullets to get another stud pitcher should they want.

Why does this concern the Tigers?

Well, simply put, the Tigers are thinking beyond just the division now. Essentially, the Tigers were building themselves in 2012 to get by Texas. They did get past the Rangers and everyone else in 2012, making it to the World Series. If they want to get back there, they have to consider what other teams outside of the Central Division are doing.

Right now, it’s difficult to say with any certainty that the Tigers or the Jays are better at this point. I do know if the Jays go out and get another quality starting pitcher however, the Tigers might need to make a move themselves. The competition between the two teams starting a little early. One of those players could be Anibal Sanchez.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of this off-season plays out, but  right now the baseball world finds itself looking north of the border, and being impressed by what they see. Toronto, our old rival, has effectively stolen the thunder from the Tigers signing of Torii Hunter, much like we stole the division from them in the last weekend of the 1987 baseball season. I’m all for the Jays becoming a rival again, it’s not like there is going to be a hockey rivalry with the Leafs and the Wings right now. (How is Bettman still a commissioner?)

Bring the baseball rivalry back. With the way these two organizations are attacking the off-season right now, it could be a lot of fun when these two teams get together on the field eh?