But if you’re all honest with yourselves, you know this is true. The Tigers are the most likely team to win the Central in 2013.  But, they have to play the games, and stranger things have happened. You can all come back and laugh at me in the end if they don’t win the division.

Here is a little more than rudimentary look at the A.L. Central and where I think they will finish.

First Place- Detroit Tigers

Yeah, I gave this one away, but I think ESPN, MLB Network and the media alike won’t have to drug test their baseball “experts”, they will just have to find the analyst that actually believes the Tigers won’t win the Central. That analyst is clearly a fan of funny mushrooms, or a glue sniffer. I’m sure there are a couple out there.

There isn’t a ton of analysis to do here. They have the best rotation in the division by far, and their lineup stacks up nicely with the rest of the division, and the league. Yes, there is a question about the closer, but we’ve often seen these things work themselves, and two recent World Series winners in the Cardinals and Giants have done just fine without a guy to start the season. I’m confident someone will emerge, and the Tigers have enough in their system to get one if they need it.

Mar 11, 2012; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Prince Fielder (28) during the game against the New York Mets at Joker Marchant Stadium. The Mets beat the Tigers 11-0. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Second Place- Kansas City Royals

Okay, this isn’t a fashion pick for me. There are a bunch of people who want Kansas City to do well, and will predict it likely so they can say they were on the bandwagon. For me, this is a case where a strong spring could translate into a strong regular season. If you all haven’t noticed, the Royals are destroying people this spring. While it isn’t a predictor, I have to think the good feeling that has to be going on in that clubhouse right now is a positive thing. Guys like Billy Butler and Alex Gordon saw the trade to bring James Shields and Wade Davis over as a sign the front office is serious, and I think it will make a difference in how the team performs on the field.

The rotation is better with Shields and Davis. Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie aren’t world beaters, but can keep a team in a game most nights, and that is really all the Royals need. Why? I think their offense is going to be pretty fantastic. Gordon, Butler, and guys like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are either ripened or ripening to the point where they should be a well above average offensive club. Defensively they are strong, and the bullpen is wicked. Wicked good that is.

I just see a club that can win bunch of 6-4 type games, and they might do it late. Sometimes that is a recipe for a winner.

Third Place- Cleveland Indians

Cleveland has no doubt improved their team this off-season. I am rarely complimentary of the things their front office does, because most of the time, their moves stink. Acquiring Drew Stubbs and Trevor Bauer was a coup in my humble opinion (Is it humble if I know I’m right?). Adding veterans Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn is a good idea. Not only are they good players, but they are winners. Guys that are used to winning, and can maybe explain how to do that to Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall in particular. Mike Aviles was a solid pickup and should provide value. But what I really think could go the right way for the Tribe in 2013 is Carlos Santana just taking off and becoming a masher in the middle of that formidable lineup.

While the lineup looks formidable, the rotation does not on the other hand. There really isn’t one guy in that entire rotation that Cleveland fans can look at and honestly call any better than a middle of the rotation pitcher. And beyond Ubaldo Jimenez and maybe Justin Masterson, even that is a stretch. Until Cleveland can prevent runs from crossing the plate, I can’t go all crazy and start predicting a 2nd place finish.

Fourth Place: Chicago White Sox

Fourth place for the team that took the Tigers to the wire last year? Yep, the White Sox had quite a bit of stuff go very right for them last year. Adam Dunn bounced back. That wasn’t terribly unexpected, but Alex Rios had a real good season, and they got really good contributions out of pitchers like Jose Quintana and Jake Peavy. Quintana came out of nowhere and I don’t expect him to repeat. Peavy? I’m waiting for his arm to fall off any day now. John Danks is a huge question mark. Gavin Floyd is consistently pretty mediocre. Chris Sale logged more innings than he ever has by far, and it is going to be interesting to see how holds up for a second straight year of increased innings.

The Sox lost A.J. Pierzsynski and Kevin Youklis to free agency. Tyler Flowers and Jeff Keppinger “replace” them in 2013. How much more can the Sox take of Gordon Beckham? Which Alexei Ramirez are they going to get? Will Peavy stay healthy? How much will they miss their All Star catcher?

There’s a bunch more questions than answers with this team. It’s too bad, because Paul Konerko is a hell of a hitter, and he should be on a better team so he can get the recognition he deserves.

Fifth Place: Minnesota Twins

My first thought when I started doing this was…do I really have to analyze the Twins? Or can I just say the suck and move on? I’ve been incredibly harsh on the Twins the last few years, and they haven’t done anything to make me eat my words. The best I can say about them right now is I did like their off-season. Getting a couple of guys in their system who can pump a fastball over 90mph is a good start. Plus, the Twins farm system is loaded with a veritable sh*tload of offensive talent. If the Twins don’t make some serious efforts to move Josh Willingham, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau over the summer, they should be slapped in the face by all of their fans. The Twins should be more concerned about gearing up for 2016 than winning now.

They can’t possibly win with the rotation they plan on putting on the mound in 2013.

That may sound harsh, but I actually have a ton of respect for this once great franchise. They aren’t far removed from that success at all, and it’s strange to me that the Twins got away from what made them so good. They were pests. They played the game hard. They played it fundamentally sound.

With new guys like Aaron Hicks starting to break in, I hope they find their identity fast, because I liked it better when the Twins mattered.

Top Ten:

1. Courtney Hawkins (OF)- Hawkins is already the top prospect in the system after getting drafted in the 1st round of the 2012 draft. Hawkins combines good athleticism with power projection and a good arm to have a future as an above average right fielder. He has solid instincts and should be able to improve on his deficiencies.

2. Carlos Sanchez (2B)- Sanchez shot up the White Sox list in 2012, displaying an ability to hit for average, and play well above average defense. He runs okay, but his ability to spray line drives all over the field should continue as he moves to Chicago. Could put Gordan Beckham out of a job by late 2013.

3. Erik Johnson (SP)- Johnson is Chicago’s best hope for a #2 or #3 starting pitcher right now. He is a big strong kid that has a fastball that works mostly in the low 90′s, but can get up to 95 or so. His power slider is a strikeout pitch, and his change up is coming along nicely as well.

4. Trayce Thompson (OF)- Thompson is a tooled up kid that needs to learn how to cut down on the strikeouts. He has power, speed, and an ability to play a good defensive CF, so even if he strikes out a ton, there will still be some value there down the road. Maybe a Drew Stubbs type?

5. Keenyn Walker (OF)- Walker is a speed demon who projects as a future CF and leadoff guy. His speed allows him to get to balls defensively, where he has a pretty good arm as well. He has pitch recognition issues, so he does strike out some, but he also draws walks as well.

6. Scott Snodgress (SP)- Snodgress has good stuff, he just hasn’t always been able to throw it over the plate with any consistency. Low to mid 90′s fastball and deceptive delivery produces swings and misses. Tough to hit as evidenced by his batting average against in the minors of .224.

7. Keon Barnum (1B)- Power guy all the way. Classic first base type, but will need to hit for average along the way to make it. Don’t see anything but a first baseman with his body going forward.

8. Andre Rienzo (SP)- I’ve liked this guy for several years. He has a strong arm despite his smallish frame. While he hasn’t developed a change up yet, I still hold out hope he can start. If not, he can take his mid 90′s fastball and slider to the pen with him, where I think he could be effective.

9. Rangel Ravelo (3B)- I’m not sure why in this system in particular Ravelo doesn’t receive a little more interest. He is young, turning 21 in 2013, has shown ability to hit, and has already been in A ball. Yes, he lacks power currently, and that counts against him, but he has a good frame, and I think more will come.

10. Joey DeMichele(2B)- DeMichele had a strong start to his career after being drafted in the 3rd round in 2012. He has some pop for a 2nd baseman, and some solid athleticism to go with it. He doesn’t appear to be more than an average defender however.

June 12, 2011; Austin, TX, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils designated hitter Joey DeMichele (right) react following the Austin super regional game against the Texas Longhorns at Disch-Falk Field. Texas beat Arizona State 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

Just Missed The List:

Jared Mitchell (OF), Brandon Brennan (SP), Chris Beck (SP), and Kevan Smith (C). Mitchell still has strong tools. Brennan a strong arm with a chance to start. Beck needs to regain his stuff from college. And Smith is a strong catcher with some power.

Sleepers:

Jake Cose (SP) and Jefferson Olacio (SP). Cose is already 22 years old, but has a big strong frame, and generates a bunch of ground balls with that frame. Olacio is a big strong armed lefty with command issues, but is only 18 years old. Wouldn’t be surprised to see either of these guys begin to work themselves into top 15 consideration by the end of 2013.

Verdict:

This is the 2nd year in a row I’ve ranked the White Sox system last in baseball. This year, however, it wasn’t a no-brainer. I strongly considered them above a couple of teams. There are some guys with tools in this system, but they have real things that are going to hold them back. Cutting down on the strikeouts is going to be big for a lot of their positional prospects. Still, things are looking much better for the White Sox farm system, and they always seem to develop pitching decently. One guy not mentioned that I like, and I wanted to get into the top 10 was Marcus Semien. Nothing stands out, but he is solid across the board.

There is still a lack of depth in this system, and a lack of pitching. Two things that will get your system ranked low in my book.

Oct 3, 2012; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago White Sox manager Robin Ventura (23) stands in the dugout in the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Fresh off an 85 win season and a second place division finish, the White Sox were perhaps in position to tweak their roster, add a piece or two, and get back in the 2013 hunt, but it seems like they’re not all that interested in competing next year.

There’s still plenty of off-season left – it’s not even January yet – but the White Sox are going to have to be active at some point. Either that, or be content to flirt with the .500 mark and probably finish behind the Kansas City Royals in third place. The White Sox aren’t bad right now, they’re just not good. It’s certainly hard to see them improving on last year’s record.

Here’s my perception of the White Sox’s off-season to date:

They re-signed Jake Peavy for two years and $29 million, picked up Gavin Floyd’s $9.5 million option, signed Jeff Keppinger for three years and $12 million, allowed Kevin Youkilis to sign with the New York Yankees, and allowed A.J. Pierzynski to sign with the Texas Rangers.

None of these moves look like bad moves by themselves. Kevin Youkilis was valuable while he was in Chicago last year, but he’s not a long-term solution and might not be worth the $12 million he got from the Yankees. A.J. Pierzynski simply isn’t going to reproduce his offensive numbers from a season ago – he had a career high .827 OPS at age 35. The problem with their offseason hasn’t been the moves they’ve made (they’ve been decent enough decisions), the problem is that they’ve done nothing else.

Using FanGraph’s 2012 WAR numbers as a quick guide, by swapping out Pierzynski (3.4 fWAR) and a half-season of Youkilis (1.2 fWAR) for Keppinger (2.8 fWAR), they’ve gotten worse by about two wins. That’s not so bad considering Pierzynski himself likely would have regressed by two wins, but, either way, it doesn’t represent improvement over last season.

The Tigers can’t be so far out of reach that Chicago feels like adding a few wins would be hopeless. I mean, teams actually have to play the games and an injury or two might bring Detroit right back to the pack. The White Sox have over $102 million committed for next season (and still need to figure a few million for arbitration increases for Gordan Beckham and Alejandro De Aza), so they’re already looking at a near $10 million increase over last season’s $98 million opening day figure. I wouldn’t pretend to know the payroll restraints that ownership has placed on their front office (they certainly don’t draw the crowds the Tigers do), but perhaps they’re simply no money available to make a splash of any magnitude. It looks like their best chance to shake things up is to trade Floyd for a bat, but that’s likely to end up as a sideways move.

Perhaps they’re content to play the waiting game; to hold onto some of their chips until July to see what kind of position they’re in (and what their team most desperately needs) before pushing their final stack to the center of the table. But, if they give the Tigers a three month head start, there might not be much left to play for once we’re on the other side of the All-Star break.

The Tigers look like one of the best two teams in the American League, so it would be hard for Chicago to top them, but they play in an otherwise weak division and could hope for a bit of luck to come their way if they were to inch their way toward the (expected) 86 win mark. But, as it looks right now, they’re not putting themselves in position to even attempt to “steal” the division, and they’re not looking like a team that would be in the Wild Card hunt.

There are times to stand pat, certainly, but the White Sox weren’t out of contention last year and don’t look to be bad this next year. So why doesn’t it look like they’re trying to make a push for any sort of improvement?