MCB Roundtable–Possible 2015 Detroit Tigers Lineups

Mar 18, 2014; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler (3) crosses home plate in the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays in a spring training exhibition game at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

We are approaching Spring Training which is a good thing for a number of reasons.

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First, of course, its good for baseball fans’ sanity. Certainly Hot Stove action is fun and rumors are great to bandy about, but its no substitute for actual games.

So to warm you up on this cold winter day and remind you that Detroit Tigers baseball is not very far away, we turn our attention to the lineup.

Picking a lineup in January is akin to predicting NFL draft picks the day after the Super Bowl is over, but people write them and many many people read them. It’s good for a debate and keeps everyone engaged and excited about upcoming events.

We gathered the staff of Motor City Bengals and presented them with a simple task, create your perfect Opening Day lineup. Some of us took the extra mile and sent a lineup for left and right handed pitching, but others picked what we think will offer the Tigers’ the best chance to win on a daily basis throughout the upcoming 162-game season.

First up is Dan Byrne ‘s lineup.

1. Anthony Gose-CF
2. Ian Kinsler-2B
3. Miguel Cabrera-1B
4. Victor Martinez-DH
5. Yoenis Cespedes-LF
6. J.D. Martinez-RF
7. Nick Castellanos-3B
8. James McCann-C
9. Jose Iglesias-SS

My lineup chose Gose over Rajai Davis because of the edge defensively. Kinsler could benefit from more fastballs to improve at the plate in 2015. I would not take Miggy and V-Mart away from where they had success in 2014 but push down J.D. Mart because it will balance out a little more speed after the power hitters. I am also a little leery of J.D. Mart not repeating his success of a year ago.

We can’t count on Castellanos higher in the order until he learns how to discipline himself against MLB pitchers. Alex Avila has shown that he won’t hit or won’t be able to hit so McCann should get the majority of the work behind the plate and Iglesias rounds up the lineup because someone has to bat last and his speed will help the top of the lineup. 

Sep 10, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Anthony Gose (8) singles in the seventh inning against the Chicago Cubs at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Tom Zahari  posted last week about his choice to bat Aliva second against righties and expands on two different lineups he feels will lead to success next season.

For what it’s worth, ESPN’s lineup for the Tigers is this as a result from 2014 http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/lineup/_/name/det/detroit-tigers:

1. Kinsler
2. Kinsler
3. Cabrera
4. Victor Martinez
5. J.D. Martinez
6. Castellanos
7. Castellanos
8. Avila
9. Davis

My order against right handed pitching is

1. Kinsler – 4
2. Avila – 2
3. Cabrera – 3
4. Martinez – DH
5. J.D. Martinez – 9
6. Cespedes – 7
7. Castellanos – 5
8. Gose – 8
9. Iglesias – 6

My lineup against left handed pitching:

1. Davis – 8
2. Kinsler – 4
3. Cabrera – 3
4. Martinez – DH
5. J.D. Martinez – 9
6. Cespedes – 7
7. Castellanos – 5
8. McCann – 2
9. Iglesias – 6

The lineup card from 3-7 was very easy to fill out and I think it will look very similar to what the Tigers use unless Ausmus decides to bump someone up to the 2^nd spot in the lineup. The top and bottom spots were an adventure and there will be a lot of debate over these spots. We know Kinsler will hit 1-2 every game, but the other three spots are an unknown.

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I believe Jose Iglesias will be a number 2 hitter at some point in his career, and it could be as soon as 2015. He handles the bat very well, but I do not know if he’s going to be ready to hit 2^nd by Opening Day. No one knowns what Iglesias will be this year coming off of his injury and how far he will come back to earth after his 2013 season which he had a .356 BABIP. Steamer projects Iglesias to hit .257/.304/.341 in 2015 for what it’s worth. If Iglesias is healthy and produces, I would love to bump him to number 2 in the order and pray he becomes something like Placido Polanco was when he was with the Tigers.

Against right handed pitching, Alex Avila should hit second. In his career against right handed pitching, Avila has a .256/.358/.434 split. Let me say that again: Avila has a career .358 OBP against right handed pitching. Avila tracks right handed pitching very well and you need men on base with the middle of the order coming up. Avila should not see the field against left handed pitching; James McCann should come in and hit lower in the lineup with Rajai Davis hitting at the top of the order (or flip flopped with Kinsler). Anthony Gose is also an unknown entering the year and I’ve slotted him at 8 against right handed pitching. Realistically, he could go 8 or 9 if you want to try to do the “2 leadoff hitters batting 9^th and 1^st in the order” routine. 

Sep 19, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Detroit Tigers third basemen NIck Castellanos (9) at bat against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Zane Stalberg

In many circles it is a foregone conclusion that Ian Kinsler will be the Tigers’ leadoff hitter in 2015. And, over the duration of the season it may prove wise to slot the veteran second baseman in at the top of the lineup. However, in a lineup that is going to struggle on the base-paths, it seems pretty clear that Anthony Gose should be hitting leadoff on Opening Day, and that Ian Kinsler should be hitting second.

The simple fact is that while the Tigers will have a lot of firepower, they will not be great on the base-paths, and they need to explore avenues by which they can put runners on base, and replace Torii Hunter‘s production in the two-spot. At this point in their respective careers Cespedes is better than Hunter.

Betsided

There is no debating that. However, in this lineup Cespedes is far better suited hitting behind Victor Martinez than he is hitting in the second spot. Not only does he have an unflattering .316 career OBP, but he is much more valuable serving as protection for V-Mart.

Simply put, Brad Ausmus will inevitably have to struggle with who to put in the second spot all year, but on Opening Day, it should be Ian Kinsler, rather than Yoenis Cespedes, or even J.D Martinez for that matter. On paper, having to face J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Yoenis Cespedes in some order, or another, is intimidating (for very good reasons), but ultimately those hitters need to be run producers, not run creators. A lineup that features J.D Martinez in the two-hole will be bad on the bases, and weak at the bottom.

With Rajai Davis in against lefties, the Tigers will put up a lot of crooked numbers, but Gose is less of a certainty. And, in all likeliness, the Tigers will be facing a right-hander on Opening Day. As it stands now, the Minnesota Twins have five right-handed starters in their rotation. So, on Opening Day, Gose should get a trial run in the leadoff spot, and Kinsler should follow him, in hopes of discovering what works best in regards to providing RBI opportunities for the Tigers’ big bats.

In short, the Detroit’s Opening Day lineup should be as follows:

1. Anthony Gose
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Victor Martinez
5. Yoenis Cespdes
6. J.D. Martinez
7. Nick Castellanos
8. Alex Avila
9. Jose Iglesias

There is no guaranteeing that Gose can regularly create runs at the top of the lineup, but for the first game of the season, he certainly deserves a shot to prove that he can. Furthermore, if he can figure it out at the plate, this lineup would be very potent. It would boast two speedsters at the top, a plethora of big bats in the middle, and a back-end that is much more reliable than those of years past. Whether or not this should continue to be the everyday lineup is a different argument, but for one game, this appears to be the best the Tigers have to offer.

Sep 19, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Detroit Tigers base runner James McCann (34) rounds third and scores against the Kansas City Royals during the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Pelc

1. Kinsler
2. Castellanos
3. Cabrera
4. V-Mart
5. J.D. Mart
6. Cespedes
7. McCann/Avila
8. Iglesias
9. Gose/Davis

My 1-2 is going to be a little unconventional I know, but Ian Kinsler always has a knack of starting the season out very hot and then cooling tremendously toward the end. At least until July you likely (judging from his career history) can count on Kinsler to have an average over .300 with an OPS in the neighborhood of .800. As he cools you can tinker with the lineup and send him below Cespedes into seventh, shift everything down and allow Gose or Davis to leadoff.

My concern with Gose leading off is his career .633 OPS and he doesn’t walk much (25 in 274 PA last year). Davis has similar statistics though it can be argued that he exceeded expectations through much of 2014.

Not a lot will agree with Casty in the two-hole, but I believe he will have a breakout year in 2015. After a year of basically on the job training adjusting to a full-time role in the majors and relearning a position he was away from for a couple years, he will be able to find a bit of a comfort level both at the plate and on the diamond. Putting him in front of Miggy will let him see more pitches than he saw a year ago hitting in the final three or four slots.

Cabrera had a down year in 2014 because of injuries but the men who hit behind him, the Super Martinez Bros., each had career years. You simply cannot mess with that success, even with Cespedes in the lineup. Six might be low for Cespedes but should he get on base, he might be able to use his speed to help out the light hitting lineup that will follow. He didn’t steal many bases in Oakland or Boston last year, but the Tigers remain committed to speed and Cespedes should be able to distract pitchers enough to throw mistakes to the bottom third of the lineup.

McCann should hit better than Avila or Holaday from a year ago, however I still don’t feel the Tigers will hand him the job. I believe it will be a strict platoon based on who is pitching (same thing with Gose and Davis). As for Iglesias, there is no way he duplicates the combined .300 season he had with Boston and Detroit in 2013. He’s here for one reason: his dynamic defense.

Next: Tram's insight, Avila at first, J.D. Mart pressure