Detroit Tigers: Predicting the Starting Rotation

Detroit Tigers starting pitchers predominantly enjoyed a solid season last season. Here’s a prediction in terms of what this year’s rotation should look like.

Detroit Tigers pitchers nearly walked away with both the Rookie of the Year the Cy Young awards in 2016.

Michael Fulmer dominated opposing hitters in his first season in the Majors en route to taking home the American League Rookie of the Year.

Elsewhere, Justin Verlander nearly took home the Cy Young award, but lost out to former teammate Rick Porcello.

Initially, the rotation featured Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Greene and Mike Pelfrey.

However, by the end of the season, Fulmer, Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris had established themselves as integral parts of the staff.

This is key moving forward as the young trio will fill out 60% of the Tigers rotation.

Coupled with a resurgent Verlander, the future is looking bright in Detroit where starting pitching is concerned.

The team will continue to benefit from more young pitchers eventually entering the fold as Matt Manning, Kyle Funkhouser, Sandy Baez and Beau Burrows make their way closer to the big leagues.

However, the next wave of young starters is a few years away from making an impact.

Here’s a prediction of what the Detroit Tigers rotation should look like next season.

Justin Verlander
Age: 34
Throws: Right-Handed
Years of Major League Experience: 12
2016 Stat of Note: 5.2 WAR

Obviously the easiest call on this list, Justin Verlander returns once again to lead the Detroit Tigers rotation.

The team’s resident ace is coming off an excellent 2016 campaign that saw him post one of the best stat lines among pitchers in Major League Baseball.

Verlander made 34 starts, totaling 227.2 innings. Both of those numbers finished second in the American League to former Tiger David Price.

What’s more, Detroit’s starter also struck out 10.04 batters per nine innings. He also turned in a 3.04 ERA, a 3.42 SIERA, a 3.48 FIP and a 3.78 xFIP.

Verlander will likely once again be in the discussion while also front-lining a Tigers rotation with the chance to be among baseball’s best.

If Fulmer, Norris and Boyd can take steps forwards and if Jordan Zimmermann can return to the form he showed with the Nationals, Detroit should be poised to return to the playoffs after a two-season absence.

Verlander should also benefit from the Tigers adding catcher Alex Avila.

Not only did the club bring back a veteran who has plenty of experience with Verlander and the rest of Detroit rotation, but the Tigers added a player who found plenty of success against his former teammate.

Playing for the White Sox, Avila was one of only two players to go yard twice against Verlander last season.

Michael Fulmer
Age: 23
Throws: Right-Handed
Years of Major League Experience: One
2016 Stat of Note: 1.119 WHIP

The Detroit Tigers have done nothing but benefit from the Rick Porcello trade.

While the starter did go on to win the Cy Young last season, the Tigers certainly aren’t complaining.

In return for the former first-round pick, Detroit picked up Alex Wilson, Gabe Speier and Yoenis Cespedes.

Wilson has developed into one of the club’s most effective relievers, with a sparkling 2.58 ERA in 143 relief innings for the Tigers.

Meanwhile, Speier was flipped to Atlanta as part of the trade that brought Cameron Maybin back to the Motor City.

Last but not least, Cespedes logged a 4.4 WAR in a half season with the Tigers before being shipped to the Mets for a pair of pitching prospects.

One of those prospects was Luis Cessa, who was traded to the Yankees in the Justin Wilson deal. The other was one Michael Fulmer.

The starter registered the fourth-highest WAR on Detroit’s roster.

What’s more, Fulmer would look like the team’s best pitcher at times, which is saying something considering how dominant Verlander was in 2016.

Look for the second-year player to slot in behind the future Hall of Famer atop Detroit’s rotation.

Daniel Norris
Age: 23
Throws: Left-Handed
Years of Major League Experience: Parts of Three Seasons
2016 Stat of Note: 10.5 Swinging Strike Percentage

In just 13 starts last season, Daniel Norris established himself as a key member of the Detroit Tigers rotation for both the present and the future.

The former Toronto Blue Jays farmhand finished fifth on Detroit’s pitching staff in WAR with a 1.1 numbers despite logging just 69.1 innings of work.

Over the course of said innings, the left-hander notched a 3.38 ERA, a 3.93 FIP and a 3.94 SIERA.

Norris also missed bats with 9.22 strikeouts per nine frames and a 10.5 swinging strike percentage. In terms of Detroit starters, only Justin Verlander posted better numbers.

Pitch and innings counts could still be in play, but it will be interesting to see what Norris can do with a full season’s worth of work.

The pitcher has started 21 games for Detroit split across two seasons. Overall, he’s thrown just 136 frames in parts of three seasons in the Majors.

If he can continue to keep his ERA in the low 3.00s and miss bats, the Detroit Tigers will be a force to be reckoned with where starting pitching is concerned.

Matt Boyd
Age: 26
Throws: Left-Handed
Years of Major League Experience: Parts of Two Seasons
2016 Stat of Note: 2.56 ERA from July 9^th through September 6^th

The Detroit Tigers continue to reap the benefits of a highly successful 2015 trade deadline.

Not only did the club pick up Fulmer from the Mets for Cespedes, they also netted JaCoby Jones in a swap for Joakim Soria with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

While the trade involving Fulmer will rightfully steal all the headlines, Detroit’s deal with Toronto that sent David Price back to the American League East deserves praise as well.

The Tigers picked up Norris, Jairo Labourt—a potential power pitcher for the future in—and Matt Boyd

Boyd’s numbers from 2016 (4.75 FIP in 97.1 innings) may not show it at first, but he was just as important as either Fulmer or Norris.

The 26-year-old’s stats were partly inflated thanks to a handful of poor starts.

Boyd began the year with a 3.38 ERA in his first four outings, before being lit up to the tune of 15 hits, 13 runs, two walks and two home runs in a pair of starts against Chicago and Kansas City.

However, following those starts, the Washington native thrived, turning in a 2.56 ERA, a .232 batting average against and a .294 on-base percentage in 56.1 frames from July 9^th to September 6^th.

The lefty’s numbers to end the season (9.26 ERA in his final 11.2 innings) weren’t anything to write home about.

However, showed the upside to be an effective Major League starter for the long haul.

Next: Tigers Rookie of the Year Candidates

In this prediction piece, Boyd gets the nod over Mike Pelfrey and Anibal Sanchez, who both struggled mightily last season and haven’t been perfect this spring.