Detroit Tigers probably won’t be this bad next season

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DETROIT, MI – SEPTEMBER 19: Alex Wilson #30 of the Detroit Tigers reacts after giving up a grand slam to Jed Lowrie of the Oakland Athletics during the eighth inning at Comerica Park on September 19, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) /

Detroit Tigers fans haven’t seen the best play from the team in September. The Tigers might not contend in 2018, but they won’t be this bad.

Detroit Tigers players have endured a rough September, this much is true.

The team has been playing without the recently traded Justin Verlander and Justin Upton, as well as the injured Michael Fulmer—and it’s showed.

Detroit has played 22 games this month, winning just four of them. Over that same span, the Tigers are also sporting a -71 run differential over that span.

Of course, Detroit has also been without Victor Martinez, who himself is sidelined for the rest of the season.

While there have been undoubted positives—Nicholas Castellanos’ offense, Matthew Boyd and Jeimer Candelario’s overall play—Miguel Cabrera and company are plummeting towards the American League Central.

After Friday’s loss, Detroit and the White Sox fell into a tie at the bottom of the American League for the Junior Circut’s worst record.

In the long run, this is probably for the best as Detroit seemed ticketed for a losing year after trading Verlander and Upton.

Now the team can snag the highest draft pick possible in order to add an impact prospect to the team’s farm system.

Sure, some combination of Jose Iglesias, Shane Greene, Ian Kinsler and Alex Wilson could conceivably be traded.

However, the Detroit Tigers won’t struggle this much next season.

DETROIT, MI – SEPTEMBER 1: Michael Fulmer #32 of the Detroit Tigers watches their game against the Cleveland Indians from the bench during the third inning of game two of a doubleheader at Comerica Park on September 1, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) /

Pitching

The Detroit Tigers 2018 rotation could eventually feature prospects Franklin Perez, Grayson Long and Beau Burrows.

There’s also an outside shot that that pitchers like Sandy Baez, Matt Hall, Tyler Alexander or even Kyle Funkhouser join them.

That in itself is good news as the prospects should provide upgrades—or higher ceilings at the very least—to much of Detroit’s current rotation.

Due to injuries and trades, the Tigers have been forced to lean on Anibal Sanchez, Buck Farmer, Chad Bell, Myles Jaye and Artie Lewicki down the stretch.

While results matter little at this point, Detroit’s rotation certainly hasn’t helped keep the team competitive.

The rotation in September currently ranks 18^th in WAR. The unit also has the seventh-worst xFIP (4.93), the second-highest WHIP (1.76) while throwing the fourth-fewest innings (91).

Part of that is obviously due to a .377 BABIP that paces all Major League rotations since the end of August.

However, of the 19 hurlers Detroit has sent to the mound, just four have a SIERA south of 4.00. What’s more, 10 of them have a SIERA of 5.00 or higher.

Why 2018 will be an improvement

Despite all the struggles in September, the 2018 season will be much better for the Detroit Tigers from a pitching standpoint.

First and foremost, Michael Fulmer will be pitching every fifth day. That should improve things exponentially.

Fulmer could be joined in the rotation by some free agent signings.

Detroit’s fill-ins down the stretch haven’t exactly pitched at a Cy Young level.

Because of this, the Tigers may find it prudent to add a veteran free agent or two on a one-year deal.

That way, the team will have some veteran placeholders for Perez and company. Once the prospects are ready, Detroit can flip the veterans for more prospects.

This allows the Tigers to add some stability to the team, keeping the team more competitive in the process.

Some veterans who could fit the bill include Jaime Garcia, old friend Doug Fister and Tyson Ross.

DETROIT, MI – AUGUST 24: Shane Greene #61 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates a 10-6 win over the New York Yankees with James McCann #34 at Comerica Park on August 24, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

The bullpen

If Shane Greene and Alex Wilson stay in the Motor City through the offseason, Detroit will enter with a sorted back end of the bullpen.

Based on talent alone, Detroit should also see the likes of Joe Jimenez, Jairo Labourt and Zac Reininger improve as they become more acclimated to Major League hitters.

Similar to the rotation, it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see a veteran added on a short-term deal.

Also similar to the rotation, the Tigers should be welcoming some prospect reinforcements.

Paul Voelker and 2016 draftees Bryan Garcia and Mark Ecker all reached the upper minors last season.

They could debut at some point next year, bringing a much needed influx of talent to a bullpen that currently ranks 25^th in walk percentage, 28^th in strikeouts per nine innings and last in the Majors in FIP, WHIP and SIERA.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen is also the only unit in the Majors this season with a cumulative WAR dipping into the negatives with a -0.8 mark.

Add in a veteran free agent signing or two, and Detroit should be in much better shape.

There’s also the possibility that the Tigers could convert a starter like Farmer or Lewicki to a relief role in an effort to replicate the success the team found with Greene.

TORONTO, ON – SEPTEMBER 9: Miguel Cabrera #24 of the Detroit Tigers hits a two-run home run in the first inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on September 9, 2017 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

Offensive improvements

While the Detroit Tigers pitching staff has struggled mightily in September, the team’s offense hasn’t been nearly as ineffective.

Despite regularly relying on the likes of Andrew Romine (65 wRC+), Tyler Collins (.283 on-base percentage) and Efren Navarro (54 wRC+), the Tigers are 18^th in WAR among offenses in the month of September.

Detroit also ranks near the middle of the pack in ISO (15^th), wRC+ (16^th) and wOBA (17^th).

If the Tigers can get Miguel Cabrera back to being his old self at the plate next season, they should improve on those numbers significantly.

A full season of Victor Martinez in the lineup in 2018 certainly won’t hurt matters either.

In addition to Martinez, seeing Jeimer Candelario play on a consistent basis should help the Tigers significantly.

The centerpiece of the Justin Wilson trade, Candelario has arguably been Detroit’s best player in September.

In 84 plate appearances, the third baseman has clocked a 1.0 WAR to go along with a 169 wRC+, a .426 wOBA, a 14.3 walk percentage and a .181 ISO.

Candelario is also hitting .361 with a .452 on-base percentage and a .542 slugging percentage.

He’s not going to sustain those numbers for an entire season, but he looks like he’ll be an above-average contributor at the plate.

Nicholas Castellanos

Detroit’s other standout performer down the stretch is the player Candelario replaced.

In 191 plate appearances since the beginning of August, Nicholas Castellanos is hitting .319 with a .330 on-base percentage, a .578 slugging percentage, a .376 wOBA, a 134 wRC+ and a .259 ISO.

His 2.1 walk percentage over the same span (191 plate appearances) obviously isn’t ideal, but Castellanos’ aggressiveness at the plate has been paying off.

His recent play is certainly reminiscent of the run of form the former infielder was in last season.

In an injury-shortened 2016, Castellanos logged a 118 wRC+, a .350 wOBA, a .496 slugging percentage and a .212 ISO in 447 plate appearances.

If he can maintain those kinds of numbers over the course of a season, it will go a long ways towards replacing the departed production of J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton in the outfield corners.

Free agent fits?

Speaking of the outfield corners, the Detroit Tigers currently have an opening in left field.

In an ideal world, top prospect Christin Stewart would claim the position in Spring Training and run with it.

While that’s a possibility, Stewart just wrapped up his first full season in Double-A.

He may need a tad more seasoning in Triple-A before he starts hitting in the middle of Detroit’s lineup.

Because of this, Detroit could conceivably sign a veteran free agent to short-term deal—in the same vein as a potential rotation addition—to serve as a placeholder for Stewart.

Among the free agents this offseason who could be conceivable fits are Carlos Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gomez and Seth Smith.

Old friends (and free agents) Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson, Cameron Maybin and Rajai Davis could also be placeholders in left field.

If the Tigers make any signings in left field, it should elevate the team’s level of play somewhat.

In conclusion

Are the Detroit Tigers going to contend next season? Probably not.

Surprises happen all the time in baseball, so one never knows.

However, this Tigers team seems set for another season of developing younger players and waiting for prospects to reach the Majors.

Still, the team can improve.

If the team’s younger players continue to develop and veterans like Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez bounce back, Detroit will be better next season.

Next: Trade ideas to net Detroit more young, position player building blocks

The Tigers may not make it back to the postseason in 2018, but they certainly won’t play as poorly as they have in September for an entire season.

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