Detroit Tigers: Staff preseason predictions

The staff at Motor City Bengals makes their preseason predictions regarding the Detroit Tigers in 2018.

The Detroit Tigers are no longer perennial contenders for the AL pennant. After shipping away most of their premier talent at the trade deadline, the Tigers have geared up for a potentially lengthy rebuild.

With rebuilds comes a lot of uncertainty. The 2018 team has a lot of older, veteran talent still remaining. However, the majority of their future is still in the minor leagues, and the rest of the roster is filled with cheap veterans whose job it is to bridge the gap until the team can be competitive again.

That could make for an ugly couple of seasons in the Motor City. However, that does not mean there won’t be some fun to be had this season.

Here at Motor City Bengals, our staff set out to make predictions for the upcoming season. Each of us made a handful of predictions, and we will see how we did at the end of the year.

With such a young, volatile team, virtually anything can happen. Regardless, it should be a fun, albeit trying, season.

We will start with staff co-expert Andy Patton:

Victor Martinez hits 20 or more home runs

Victor Martinez has hit 20 or more home runs seven times in his illustrious career, with two of those seasons coming in Detroit. While Martinez’s 2017 season (10 home runs, .255 average) was disappointing, a bounce-back from V-Mart seems plausible heading into his age-39 season. Martinez only hit 10 home runs last year, but his hard-hit rate was actually higher than it was in 2016, when he hit 27 round-trippers. His problem was his launch angle, as he saw his fly-ball rate drop to 34.2% in 2017.

If V-Mart can continue to hit the ball hard while increasing his fly ball percentage, there is no reason he can’t easily eclipse 20 home runs for the third time as a Tiger.

Nicholas Castellanos makes his first All-Star Game

Castellanos was a sabermetric darling last year, boasting an incredible 43.4% hard-hit rate and the tenth most ‘barreled’ baseballs in the league last year. The results were there, as Casty hit 26 home runs with 101 RBI and a .272 batting average. All this while learning to switch positions on the fly. Now, Castellanos is locked in as the everyday right fielder. He looks likely to move into the clean-up spot in Detroit, and this is the year he will complete his break through and make the AL All-Star team.

Christin Stewart outperforms Mikie Mahtook

This prediction is more apprehension about Mahtook’s ability to repeat his performance from last year. Mahtook has looked terrible this spring, and while that is not a major cause for concern, it does beg the question: How long of a leash does he have until they call someone else up?

Stewart is the likely beneficiary if Mahtook struggles. The 24-year-old power hitter will struggle defensively, but has worked hard to become an adequate left fielder. He has the potential to hit 25 home runs in the big leagues, and posts strong walk numbers as well.

I think Mahtook will struggle to match last season’s performance, and will be replaced midseason by Stewart, who will have a stronger second half.

Next is co-expert Adam McIntosh’s predictions:

Mike Fiers will be the number three starter

First, Mike Fiers is going to establish himself as the number three man in the starting rotation behind Fulmer and Zimmerman. That vegan diet and mustache (and of course pitching coach Chris Bosio) are going to be contributing factors in Fiers turning things around during the regular season.

Matt Boyd will be the number five starter

Secondly, Matt Boyd will be the number five guy in the starting rotation. I think he figured things out towards the end of last season and Tigers fans should keep an eye on him. This also means that Norris ends up back in Toledo. This is the right move in my opinion. Norris hasn’t shown just yet that he needs to be moved to the bullpen and the Boyd would in all likelihood be claimed off of waivers by another team.

Tigers will trade Francisco Liriano

Franscisco Liriano will be gone once the trade deadline passes. Whether the Tigers can get some value out of that remains to be seen. But I don’t think the Tigers will keep him past the trade deadline.  He might play just well enough for us to flip him for some lower level prospects, but I don’t think it’d be any prospects of value.

Leonys Martin will become a fan favorite

Finally, Leonys Martin. He’ll became a fan favorite. Between his stolen bases and hitting hard in Comerica Park I expect Tigers fans to embrace the veteran hitter. They might even want him to stick around with the Tigers. Between Martin, Castellanos, Miggy and V-Mart the Tigers offense should be somewhat exciting. Although if wins are what excite people then maybe not…

Jose Iglesias will be traded

Iglesias agreed to a one-year deal this offseason to avoid arbitration, but will be a free agent following the season. He’s one of many Detroit Tigers who have shown up in trade rumors, and it makes sense for him to be dealt. Better to get something instead of losing him for nothing after the season.

Dawel Lugo will be the everyday second baseman by August

An Iglesias trade would open the door for Lugo to come up and play every day. Lugo was acquired in the J.D. Martinez trade, and hit a combined .277 with 13 homers and 65 RBI in his two Double-A stops last year.

Lugo possesses the ability to play any of the infield spots, so he could be a straight replacement for Iglesias, or could slot in at second with Dixon Machado moving to shortstop.

Even if for some reason Iglesias doesn’t get traded, Lugo could be promoted to replace Machado. If Machado struggles in his first extended look as an everyday player, Lugo could take over at second, and Machado could return to his former role as a utility player.

The Tigers will win 70 games

Detroit went 64-98 last year, underperforming their Pythagorean record by three wins. The offense should be improved with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez seemingly healthy, and Nicholas Castellanos looking primed to take the next step.

On the pitching side, the Detroit Tigers were at or near the bottom of the league in several pitching categories. Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris, and Jordan Zimmerman all had ERAs nearly a run higher than their FIP, suggesting some bad luck. Even the slightest improvements on the pitching side should lead to a few more wins.

Finally there’s the Ron Gardenhire factor. Gardenhire continuously got the most out of his young players in Minnesota and can do the same here. It won’t lead to a playoff appearance or a .500 record this year, but he is a better fit for this team than Brad Ausmus was.

Next: Using Baseball-Reference to predict 2018 performance

The fun part about predictions is that truly anything can happen. While a few of us are bound to hit on some of these, 162 games is a lot of baseball. Starting Thursday, all bets are off.