3 calls the Detroit Tigers should make immediately
It looks like the Detroit Tigers will be playing baseball soon.
Negotiations have been a bit of a roller coaster, and owners and the players have seemingly come close to agreement a few times before, but earlier today the MLBPA voted to accept the latest proposal from Major League Baseball.
Things began moving in a positive direction after the sides agreed to table talk of an international draft until late July. The owners still need to approve the deal, but that seems like a foregone conclusion. After that? Things could get absolutely wild:
We could see frenzied activity in all areas of the sport, but for our purposes the focus will be on free agency and trades. We expect the Detroit Tigers will be rushing to fill out their roster.
Their view of what they need probably doesn’t match ours, but here are three calls we would make immediately.
Detroit Tigers Call Number 1: Garrett Richards – RHP
The Detroit Tigers need more pitching. Adding Eduardo Rodriguez helps the pitching staff, but the organization’s starting pitching depth is woefully thin on experience, and the bullpen isn’t expected to be a strong suit for the club.
That’s where Garrett Richards comes into play. Richards turns 34 at the end of May, and last year marked the first time he hit the 80-inning mark in a season since 2015. Long noted for his elite spin rates, Richards was adversely affected by the crackdown on sticky stuff last year, and to compensate he tried to alter his pitch mix in the middle of the season.
That’s tough for anyone to do, and Richards’ performance understandably suffered. He owned a 3.23 ERA through 10 starts in April and May, but his ERA over the next 10 outings was an ugly 6.65, and the Red Sox moved him to the bullpen.
Moving to relief seemed to do the trick for Richards. As a starter his ERA was 5.22 and he struck out 17.3% of the batters he faced, but, in 18 relief outings covering 26.1 innings, his ERA dropped to 3.42 and his strikeout rate jumped to 24.8%.
There’s obvious risk here given Richards’ injury history and struggles as a starter last year, but for the Tigers he would represent an inexpensive investment — likely less than $8 million for one season — with a moderately high ceiling and a safe floor. Richards could be given the chance to start, where he still has mid-rotation ability, but if it doesn’t work out there he could easily move to the bullpen.
Detroit Tigers Call Number 2: Brad Miller – Utility Man
The Detroit Tigers are in a bit of a strange place. Their lineup could theoretically be upgraded at a handful of positions, but they also don’t have any glaring holes. At least not if we project Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson to join the club quickly.
They will eventually have to make some harder decisions, particularly with regard to their young outfielders, but for now they are left to make smaller improvements at the margins. It looks like Harold Castro, Willi Castro, Isaac Paredes, and Zack Short will be battling for utility duties on the club, but if the Tigers are really interested in competing this year, they should be targeting a little more stability.
Brad Miller is a flawed player, but he would give the Tigers some much needed left-handed power along with patience and defensive versatility. It might be helpful to compare him to another flawed lefty slugger, Joc Pederson:
Pederson has better career numbers, but Miller has been the better player over the past few seasons. He’s was also superior to Pederson by Statcast’s numbers last year, with the same hard hit rate, but a higher average exit velocity, a higher barrel rate, and a faster sprint speed.
We bring up Pederson only as a means to suggest Miller might be undervalued. The FanGraphs crowdsource numbers expect Pederson to get a two-year, $18-million deal. They didn’t even bother to project Miller.
And again, Miller can play multiple positions. He’s not a great outfielder by any means, but last year he played both outfield corners as well as first base, second base, and third base. He could help form the strong side of a platoon and buy the team some time if Greene or Torkelson need a bit more seasoning.
Detroit Tigers Call Number 3: The Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds will probably be fielding a lot of phone calls (or texts, as it were). They seem to be in the process of rebuilding again, and they have a trio of interesting pitchers due to be free agents after the 2023 season. Luis Castillo is the best of the group, but that means he’d also be the most expensive in a trade. Tyler Mahle doesn’t have a long track record of success, but he had a real breakout last year, and he’s the youngest of the trio, so he also figures to costs a lot. And then there’s Sonny Gray.
Gray is still just 32, so he’s not an old man, but his age combined with his contact figure to make the acquisition cost a bit more palatable. His contract isn’t prohibitive by any means — he’s due $10 million this season, and has a team option for $12 million next year with some performance escalators. That’s peanuts compared to what a healthy Sonny Gray can contribute to the Detroit Tigers.
Over the past three seasons, Gray’s numbers compare well with Eduardo Rodriguez’s:
Recall that Rodriguez is getting $15 million a year from the Tigers, and it’s generally viewed as a bargain. The Tigers could probably put together a deal for Gray that doesn’t include any of their top five prospects, and the teams have already made one trade this offseason, so presumably the Reds would have a list of targets ready.
These three moves probably wouldn’t have the Detroit Tigers getting fitted for World Series rings, but they could move the club much closer to being a real playoff contender in 2022.