Diamondbacks vs. Tigers prediction and odds for Sunday, June 11 (Why OVER is best bet)

Jun 9, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Josh Rojas (10) reaches for a
Jun 9, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Josh Rojas (10) reaches for a / Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

The Tigers and Diamondbacks finish a three game series in Detroit on Sunday afternoon.

Detroit will hope left hander Joey Wentz can find some answers after a poor start to this season with an ERA north of 7.00. It won't be easy for Wentz, who is set to face an elite Diamondbacks lineup that is pushing to the top of the National League while starting its ace and Cy Young candidate Zac Gallen.

How should we bet this matchup? I'm eyeing the total on Sunday afternoon:

Diamondbacks vs. Tigers odds, run line and total

Diamondbacks vs. Tigers prediction and pick

Wentz is going to have a tough go on Sunday even with his metrics indicating he should be performing better on the mound. He has a 7.49 ERA on the year that is supported by an xERA of 6.42. However, Arizona is hitting lefties at a .270 clip this season and should be able to knock around Wentz, who is allowing opponents to hit .354 on balls in play.

However, Detroit's offense can find some answers against Gallen, who has been pitching a bit better than his underlying metrics indicate. Gallen's 2.75 ERA is supported by a 3.88 xERA mainly because has been able to work out of jams. The right hander is stranding about 70% of batters on base and while striking out more than five batters for every walk dished out.

Gallen may face some natural regression if a few balls trickle out of the strike zone and put himself into a poor outing quickly. Yes, the Tigers offense has fallen off of a cliff, hitting below .200 over the last 15 days, but I believe the team can plate more runs than expectations in order to get this over the total.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.