Mets vs. Tigers prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 2 (Target total in series opener)

Apr 24, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA;  Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier B  ez (28) singles during
Apr 24, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier B ez (28) singles during / Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Detroit Tigers start its series against the New York Mets on Tuesday night at home.

Michael Lorenzen takes the mound for the fourth time this season in hopes of getting some necessary regression once the ball is in play against a Mets team that is fresh off a double header at home on Monday.

New York counters with swingman Joey Lucchesi, who is looking to find his form after missing all of last season due to Tommy John surgery.

Here are the odds for Tuesday's series opener with a best bet on the total:

Mets vs. Tigers odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Tigers prediction and pick

Lucchesi has been solid in more than 12 innings of work this season, allowing only three earned runs while walking only four batters to 12 strikeouts. The Tigers have also been prone to strikeouts against southpaws, posting a 30% K rate against lefties in 2023.

While the team has been around the big league average in terms of batting average, I believe Lucchesi can generate enough swings and misses to avoid trouble against this overall poor Tigers lineup.

On the other hand, expect Lorenzen to post better numbers than he has so far. While the Mets have pop in the lineup, Pete Alonso is tied for the big league lead in home runs, the team is below league average in batting average this season.

Lorenzen's 7.07 ERA this season appears concerning, but his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is nearly two runs lower at 5.32, meaning that he has been a bit unlucky so far this season.

He is walking less batters this season than he has since 2019 when he was a relief pitchers and his ability throw strikes and punch batters out (nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings) will keep the Mets down on Tuesday.

All signs point to a low scoring affair in the series opener.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.