Orioles vs. Tigers prediction and odds for Saturday, April 29 (Tigers undervalued at home)

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (57).
Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (57). / Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

The Detroit Tigers have gotten off to a slow start in the 2023 season, but they are 4-5 at home heading into Saturday’s game against the Baltimore Orioles. 

Baltimore is in second place in the AL East, winning nine of its last 10 games to move to 17-8 on the season. The young O’s are a sneaky playoff contender in the American League, and they are slight favorites on the road in this spot. 

Detroit will have lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (1-2, 2.32 ERA) on the mound for the first game of this doubleheader, while the O’s send Dean Kremer (2-0, 6.20 ERA) to the bump. 

Kremer has struggled this season despite his 2-0 record, so do the Tigers have value to win this game as home dogs?

Here’s a look at the latest odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Orioles vs. Tigers odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Tigers prediction and pick

It’s early in the season, but Rodriguez looks to be finding his form, posting a 3.48 Fielding Independent Pitching in addition to his 2.32 ERA. 

He ranks in the 86th percentile in expected ERA and the 90th percentile in hard hit percentage, showing that opponents are struggling to make good contact against him. 

Kremer on the other hand, is lucky to not have a loss to his name this season. 

The Orioles right-hander has a FIP of 6.59, showing that his ERA is right where it should be. He’s also in just the 10th percentile in expected ERA and fifth in opponent slugging percentage against. 

Other than a 6.2 inning performance against the Washington Nationals where he didn’t allow a run, Kremer has allowed four or more runs in every other start this season. 

The Tigers have scored the fewest runs in MLB, but this is a perfect spot for them to get their bats going. I like them to win this game as home dogs. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.