Tigers vs. Guardians prediction and odds for Monday, May 8 (Why UNDER is best bet)

Apr 22, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Joey Wentz (43) throws a
Apr 22, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Joey Wentz (43) throws a / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Tigers rebuild is going according to plan. No the team isn't contending just yet, but they are hanging around in a lowly AL Central, just three games behind the first place Twins.

Slightly ahead of the Tigers in the standings, the Guardians, host Detroit to start this week's action on Monday night. Detroit will trot out left hander Joey Wentz, who will look to shut down a Cleveland lineup that struggles against left handers while the hosts counter with Tanner Bibee.

How should we bet this one? First, let's look at the odds:

Tigers vs. Guardians odds, run line and total

Tigers vs. Guardians prediction and pick

Wentz has had a tough go in his first full big league season, posting a 6.67 ERA in six starts with most of his issue coming from his inability to allow home runs. The southpaw has allowed six dingers in over 28 innings of work this season, but I don't believe that will be an issue on Monday night against a Guardians team that has the second lowest slugging percentage against left handed pitching this season.

While I believe Wentz should be able to put up a far better performance than what he has done this season, the same can be said for the rookie Bibee. It's only been two starts for the rookie, but he has looked the part thus far, allowing only three earned runs in 11 innings while striking out 13 batters and not dealing a walk. It also helps that Cleveland has a top five bullpen in terms of ERA this season.

I don't agree with the Guardians being such heavy favorites, but the Tigers offense has struggled all season, 29th in wRC+ so I'm not sure the team can plate enough runs to justify this price. However, the only team worse on offense is the Guardians, leading me towards the under in the series opener.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.