The Tigers and Twins continue a weekend series between AL Central foes, is there an angle on the total worth playing?
Detroit will hope that Tyler Alexander can continue to cement himself as an opener for this emerging Tigers rotation while the team faces stiff competition against AL Cy Young candidate Joe Ryan of the first place Twins.
Here are the odds and our best bet for Friday's divisional showdown:
Tigers vs. Twins odds, run line and total
Tigers vs. Twins prediction and pick
Alexander is a prime positive regression candidate for the Tigers, pitching far better than his 5.23 ERA would indicate. The left hander has an xERA of 3.76 as he has been plagued by some poor luck once the ball is in play. He is only stranding 55% of runners on base, a note to some poor variance.
He will only pitch to the Twins lineup about once before passing the ball to a league average bullpen, but he should be in line for a strong start considering Minnesota has the fourth lowest OPS against southpaws this season.
However, I can't trust this Tigers offense that is 25th in OPS since the start of June and hitting just .227 as a unit this season against a talent like Ryan. He has a 2.90 ERA and his underlying metrics are even better, posting a 2.45 xERA as he limits mistakes better than arguably any other pitcher in the big leagues, walking only 1.74 batters per nine innings.
Ryan is too elite for this Tigers offense, but don't sleep on the Tigers pitching staff holding up on Friday. I'll be on the under.
PICK: UNDER 8
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.