White Sox vs. Tigers prediction and odds for Friday, May 26 (Detroit undervalued as home underdogs)

May 24, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Detroit Tigers pinch hitter Zack Short (59) hits a three
May 24, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Detroit Tigers pinch hitter Zack Short (59) hits a three / Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Tigers success continues as we get to the end of May and the team would love to keep gaining ground on the AL Central at the expense of a failing division rival.

The Tigers just finished up a series win against the Royals and now return home to face the White Sox, who will start veteran Lance Lynn, who is looking to put together three straight quality starts. Can Tigers left hander Joey Wentz hold up at home?

Here are the odds for Friday's AL Central matchup:

White Sox vs. Tigers odds, run line and total

White Sox vs. Tigers prediction and pick

Lynn has been in good form of late, allowing jut three earned runs over 13 innings, but I can't justify him as a road favorite with the lineup behind him.

The White Sox and Tigers are 26th and 27th respectively in wRC+, which generates quality of run scoring chances. So, the offenses don't have much difference between the two and the White Sox particularly struggle against lefty pitching, below league average in OPS when facing southpaws this season.

Joey Wentz's ERA is a concern, 7.45 across nine starts, but his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 5.79, meaning that while he is struggling either way, but maybe it's not as bad as we think.

The key to this one, and why I'm back Detroit as home underdogs is the bullpens. The Tigers are top 10 in bullpen ERA, while the White Sox have the second highest ERA as a unit. Lynn has been able to go deep into games, but has also allowed 10 hits per nine innings. If the Tigers are able to get some runners on base this can be a stressful outing for Lynn and it can become a bullpen-centric game, making me queasy of backing a road favorite who is way under .500.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.