Detroit Tigers: Three Reasons Why Tigers Will Make Playoffs in 2017

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Sep 12, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Francisco Rodriguez (57) and first baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) celebrate after the game against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park. Detroit won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /

Detroit Tigers fans saw the team’s season come to an end on Sunday with a 1-0 loss on the road in Atlanta. The result ended any hopes of grabbing a Wild Card place. Detroit will make the playoffs next year.

Detroit Tigers players improved greatly following the great debacle that was the 2015 campaign.

After posting a 74-87 record and a -114 run differential in 2015, the team bounced back to go 86-75 with a +29 run differential.

While the team wasn’t ultimately able to clinch a spot in the postseason, they stand an excellent chance to next season.

If anything, general manager Al Avila showed last year that he can significantly improve a team without sacrificing premium talent. If the Tigers general manager can pull off a similar feat during the coming winter, Detroit could be positioned to reclaim a playoff berth next season.

In addition to Avila’s likely additions, the Tigers will still have much of the same core to depend on. What’s more, Detroit’s young players will only improve, while the veterans will continue to produce at a high level.

There’s a lot to be excited about heading into next season.

Here’s why the Tigers will make the playoffs in 2017.

Sep 4, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Daniel Norris (44) greets teammates walking out from the bull pen against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /

Continued Development of Young Starters

Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd were undoubtedly the most significant bright spots of the 2016 campaign for the Detroit Tigers.

Fulmer

Fulmer launched himself into the driver’s seat for American League Rookie of the Year with an excellent freshman campaign. Over 159 innings pitched, the young starter posted a 3.0 WAR and a 3.06 ERA that nearly won him an ERA title.

What’s more, the future ace posted some excellent run-prevention numbers, including a 3.76 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP. Fulmer was third among Detroit starting pitchers with a 20.4 strike percentage, and only allowed 2.38 walks per nine innings.

Norris

Norris, another pitcher with ace-like potential, never really struggled in 2016. Over the course of 69.1 innings, he never allowed more than three earned runs in a start. That led to a 3.38 ERA, a 3.93 FIP and a 3.94 SIERA.

The former Blue Jay continued to thrive down the stretch when he started to strike more batters out. In five September starts, Norris fanned 38 batters in just 29.2 innings pitched. He only walked eight over the same span while reaching double digits in swinging strikes in each of his starts.

Given his upside, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him carry that over into next season as he continues to develop as a pitcher.

Boyd

Matt Boyd’s 4.53 ERA was somewhat inflated due to a handful of bad outings. Over a two-start span in mid-June, the former Toronto farmhand was hit around. Against the White Sox and Royals, Boyd allowed 15 hits, 13 runs, two home runs and a pair of walks in just eight innings.

Those two starts, and his final start of the season when he allowed five hits and four runs without recording an out, are likely why his ERA is where it is. However, what was encouraging about Boyd’s season was what he did between the poor outings.

From early July to late September, the Washington native pitched to a 3.18 ERA in 68 innings. Over that span, the Tigers went 9-4 when he pitched. Boyd also walked just 18 batters during the stretch while improving his strikeout numbers.

The right-hander struck out 61 while routinely reaching double digits in swinging strikes per start.

If Fulmer, Norris and Boyd can continue to develop, the Tigers’ rotation will be hard to stop next season.

Sep 5, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Detroit Tigers left fielder Justin Upton (8), second baseman Ian Kinsler (3) and right fielder J.D. Martinez (28) celebrate his three-run home run in the eleventh inning against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports /

Consistent Offense

Injuries happen to every Major League team every season, but the Detroit Tigers were hit particularly hard by the injury bug in 2016.

J.D. Martinez (120 games played), Nick Castellanos (110 games played) and Cameron Maybin (94 games played) all missed significant time due to injuries.

It is hard to say where the Tigers would have been had all three been healthy. However, it isn’t a stretch to say they would posted a much higher win total.

In terms of right fielders with a minimum of 500 plate appearances, Martinez ranked second in wRC+ at 142. That was a higher rate than the likes of Mookie Betts, George Springer, Mark Trumbo, Bryce Harper, Carlos Gonzalez and Jose Bautista.

J.D. also led the way in on-base percentage and ranked second in batting average and slugging percentage. He was also seventh in ISO.

Castellanos, who logged 447 plate appearances this season, fared well against fellow players at his position with at least 400 trips to the plate. Castellanos ranked 11^th in wRC+ and 12^th in batting average. The 2016 season served as a breakout campaign for the Tigers third baseman. Should he build on it next season, he’ll be well on his way to becoming the middle-of-the-order bat many thought he would be.

Rounding out the trio is Maybin, who was one of baseball’s best offensive center fielders when active.

Of all center fielders with 350 plate appearances, Maybin posted the third-highest on-base percentage and the seventh-highest wRC+ in the league.

Sep 16, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Detroit Tigers left fielder Justin Upton (8) rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the sixth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports /

Justin Upton Not Going Through a Significant Slump

All told, Justin Upton’s 87 RBI, 81 runs scored, 31 home runs, 28 doubles and nine stolen bases represent a solid initial return on the investment Detroit made when the team signed him to a long-term contract. However, despite those numbers, the outfielder still struck out 179 times and hit .246.

Much of this was due to a horrendous early season slump that saw him post a .590 OPS and register more strikeouts (72) than extra-base hits and walks combined (26) in 48 games.

That slumped did weigh his numbers down compared to the rest of the league. Upton finished 10^th in ISO, 12^th in wRC+, 13^th in wOBA and 16^th among all qualified left fielders in on-base percentage.

While Upton’s campaign was saved by a torrid finish to the season, the reality is that he isn’t going to go through another slump of that magnitude. Expect him to be consistently productive all season. That in itself should help Detroit’s offense tremendously next season.

With the veteran hitting sixth and Castellanos batting behind him, Detroit will have one of the most fearsome lineup in baseball. They certainly are dangerous from the leadoff spot to the seventh spot.

Next: Potential 40-Man Roster Losses

Having a consistent Upton in the batting order should help the Tigers finish near the top of the league in numerous offensive categories—not to mention return to the postseason.

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