Detroit Tigers: Rebuilds aren’t an exact science so tanking should be off table

The first round of the draft

Here’s the thing, teams don’t necessarily need a high draft pick in the first round to find impact or a star talent—they just need a first rounder, if that.

Often times, the star players are found outside of the first few picks

There have been plenty of successful former first-overall picks in recent memory, from Bryce Harper and Carlos Correa to Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg.

However, there have also been players who haven’t panned out. Tim Beckham, Luke Hochevar and Bryan Bullington all have or had career WAR numbers below 4.0.

Past drafts

The 2012 draft, which was headlined by Correa, featured seven first-rounders who currently own a WAR over 5.0.

Correa predictably leads the pack. However, he’s followed by Corey Seager (18^th-overall pick), Addison Russell (11^th), Marcus Stroman (22^nd), Michael Wacha (19^th) and Lance McCullers (5.8). Baltimore right-hander Kevin Gausman is the only other top-five pick on the list.

Moving back a year, the 2010 draft has had seven players with lifetime WARs currently sitting north of 10.

Four of the seven were taken with double-digit picks, including Sonny Gray (18^th) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (40^th).

2009 and 2013

The 2009 and 2013 drafts are perhaps the best examples of how impact players can be found outside of the first few picks.

The 2009 edition of the draft obviously saw Strasburg go first overall. However, it also saw Mike Trout selected 25^th.

Other notable double-digit picks in the first round that year included A.J. Pollack (17^th), Shelby Miller (19^th) and Randal Grichuk (24^th).

Meanwhile, of the top six first-rounders in the 2013 draft in terms of WAR, only two were top-10 picks.

Otherwise, the list includes the likes of Sean Manea (34^th), Tim Anderson (17^th), Corey Knebel (39^th) and Michael Lorenzen (38^th).

One player who will likely see his career WAR rise over the coming seasons is Aaron Judge. Judge is having a monster season for the Yankees in 2017, and was taken by New York with the 32^nd pick back in 2013.

The Detroit Tigers’ own Michael Fulmer was the 44^th-overall pick by the Mets in 2011.

Staying in the first round

Given the unpredictably and uncertainness of where impact players have been drafted in the first round over the years, the Tigers simply need to pick in the opening round to have a shot at landing promising talent.

Considering the organization is moving away from inflated contracts, it seems unlikely that the Detroit Tigers will be signing any free agents who would cost a draft pick any time soon.

Because of this, the team should have a chance to partially restock the farm system every year.

Late-round gems

In some instances, there are diamonds in the rough later in drafts.

Mookie Betts and Justin Turner, who are fifth and sixth in WAR among Major League position players, were respective fourth and seventh-round picks.

Corey Kluber and Chris Archer, the fourth and sixth ranked pitchers in WAR, were fourth and fifth round picks respectively.

Past rebuilds

While the draft can be tricky to negotiate in terms of finding success and building a winning core, rebuilding jobs in general can be hit or miss.

There’s no guarantee that the team get back to contention, or even to the place that they were in.

Of course, you could be the Astros and turn in a sustainable winner, but you could also be the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies haven’t won more than 73 games since 2012, and don’t look to be anywhere close to being a team that resembles a playoff contender.

Cincinnati is in the same boat. The Reds haven’t won more than 76 games since 2013 and have turned in win totals of 64 and 68 victories in each of the last two seasons.

Like Philadelphia, the Reds don’t look close to putting it all together.

Houston

Even the Astros, who have built an incredibly strong roster, have had their shares of missed opportunities.

Houston whiffed on Brady Aiken and Mark Appel as first-overall picks in 2013 and 2014.

What’s more, the Astros were fortunate with a number of key pieces. Dallas Keuchel was a seventh-round pick, while fellow starter Collin McHugh was a waiver claim from the Rockies.

Meanwhile, young hurlers and long-term building blocks Chris Devenski and David Paulino were both acquired in minor deals for Brett Meyers and Jose Veras respectively.

In other words, rebuilds sometimes require a little bit of luck and fortune.

In the cases of the Phillies and Reds, sometimes that luck and fortune isn’t hard to find.

Copy the 2016 Yankees

The Detroit Tigers clearly need to change things up, but they shouldn’t go for a complete tear-down. The team needs to target young players who can be plugged in right away or by 2018.

That’s easier said than done, but it is what Detroit needs to do.

Los Angeles’ Alex Verdugo and Willie Calhoun, Houston’s Derek Fisher, Milwaukee’s Brett Phillips and Brandon Woodruff and Washington’s Erick Fedde all qualify.

What’s more, all are all conceivable trade targets should the Tigers move Justin Wilson to one of the aforementioned teams.

Detroit should follow the Yankees’ blue print from 2016.

The Yankees, who entered that season’s trade deadline with an even 44-44 record, flipped veterans Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Carlos Beltran and Ivan Nova for an overwhelming haul of prospects.

Of the group, Miller was the only player who wasn’t on an expiring contract.

Dealing those players certainly hasn’t impacted New York’s ability to contend this season, as the Bronx Bombers are in the thick of races for both the Wild Card and the American League East.

While Detroit’s current trade chips—Justin Wilson, Alex Avila and perhaps Anibal Sanchez and Jose Iglesias—may not net the same kind of return, the Tigers will be in a solid position if they can get full value at the deadline.

Moving forward

In that scenario, the team can move forward with a young nucleus in the next few seasons that features the newly-acquired players young players along with the likes of Fulmer, Stewart, Joe Jimenez, Mikie Mahtook, Daniel Norris, Nicholas Castellanos, Bruce Rondon, Mike Gerber, Matt Boyd and Beau Burrows.

With a young core like that supported by veterans such as Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and Justin Upton, the Tigers will be in a place to stay competitive without enduring a lengthy rebuild with no light at the end of the tunnel.

Eventually players like Jimenez and Norris are going to start making good on their immense potential.

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When that happens, the Detroit Tigers will hopefully be back in contention.