2 starting pitchers the Tigers should exercise caution with in free agency

While the Tigers should absolutely be active in the starting pitcher market this offseason, they really should only be in the market for one type of arm: a strikeout artist. This could even mean tolerating a slightly higher ERA, simply to complement the arms already in the system looking to take a leap forward. Arms like Framber Valdez, Troy Melton, Keider Montero, and the potentially returning Reese Olson have made their living on pitching to contact.

It can be far too easy to forget that a good balance of pitching to contact and swing and miss typically creates the most ideal rotation, and the thought might be to pursue the best arm, versus the one that fits you the most. These two guys are perfectly representative of that: arms that can make a rotation better (like we thought would happen with Valdez himself) but, due to a loss in swing and miss potential, might age poorly in Detroit.

Sonny Gray

Gray is technically another a guy who needed to be talked out of retirement. He pitched wonderfully in 2026, no doubt. He improved his results on contact (.041 reduction in wOBAcon) and kept the walk rate low (6.7%), while maintaining his elite sweeper (+8 run value).

The biggest concern with Gray is the stark drop off in strikeout rate from 2025 to 2026, (a reduction of 4.9%, down to 21.7% overall). Add on his jump in pulled fly balls (18.2%), and there could be regression back to the mean on the way, but without the strikeout rate that made him so intriguing prior to last year.

Michael King

King has a big opt-out decision looming, and arms like him frequently end up on the market. On paper, he looks like he could really help the Tigers. He did an excellent job of limiting hard contact (87 mph average exit velocity, 32.7% hard hit rate), but since his injury-shortened 2025, his strikeout rate has seen a drastic reduction. What was once an elite 27.7% K rate is now a below average 21%.

He has seen his ground ball rate go up, but as we’ve discussed, that’s not a need. There’s also a luck concern attached to King, as his expected ERA based on contact was 4.42, a full 1.20 above his actual mark. His positive results are likely a result of limiting pulled fly balls this past year (15%), but this is actually against his career trend (19-21% during peak years). King could absolutely help the Tigers eat innings and maybe even be an ace, but the years they'd likely have to offer him might not be worth it in the long run.

There’s certainly a world where an ideal contract with either of these arms could be reached. Both arms come with playoff experience and great offerings. But their expected value on the open market is high enough that the Tigers should look to exercise caution around signing them.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow