Austin Jackson and the Magical BABIP: Caravan Edition

1 of 2

All offseason long I hear and read two very different things about Austin Jackson:
1. He’s a budding star and the most exciting player the Tigers have (often combined with ‘he’s my favorite player’)
2. There’s absolutely no way he can keep that up

Now I know we’ve been over this before, but with Hot Stove Season winding down and Caravan Season (when optimism reigns supreme and we all start counting the days until Spring Training) taking it’s place I feel like it’s time to bring it up again. Austin Jackson had more plate appearances than any other Tiger last year, and he probably will again this year. He leads off, and never sits, and in a way that makes him the most important man in the lineup. This time last year we had no idea what to expect from the guy, except that he was going to see play and that the Yankees saw something they didn’t like. According to FanGraphs he wound up giving us 3.8 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference 2.4. [A lot of that discrepancy is due to totally opposite views on his defensive contribution – which looked pretty solid to me.] Whichever number you prefer, the fact remains: he gave us a huge boost last year out of nowhere (and was robbed of the ROY). There is a reason so many folks are on board the Jackson bandwagon.

But that was last year. What’s he going to do for the Tigers today?

The pessimists look at his .396 batting-average on balls in play and think: that can’t be right. I don’t think I need to tell anyone that .396 is extremely high. In 1941, Ted Williams had a .378 BABIP. Think about that for a second. MVP Josh Hamilton put up a .390 BABIP last year. When he led the league in batting in ’07 Magglio hit .381 on balls in play. .396 seems so high that it’s hard to imagine him keeping that up, or really anyone keeping that up.

It’s worth mentioning that Jackson does profile as a high BABIP guy. The BABIP for the league as a whole hovers around .300, but that’s because the league contains a lot of Adam Everetts (career BABIP .275). Austin Jackson is no Adam Everett. When he makes contact he stings it, and he tends to hit it in a straight line. Jackson’s AAA BABIP in 2009 was .384 – it seems that the reason the Yankees got rid of him was that they didn’t think he could keep that up. Bill James projects him a .383 BABIP next year. He hits a lot of line drives, second in the major leagues in line-drive percentage behind breakout star Carlos Gonzalez. Of the four classifications we use for these things, line drives are the most likely to fall for hits followed by grounders, then outfield flies and then infield flies (AKA pop ups). According to Baseball Prospectus, Jackson only popped out 2.6% of the time [FanGraphs gives him a 1.7% IFFB%, they aren’t wholly equivalent] which was 9th best in the majors among guys with 500 PAs. Above him: guys like Mauer, Votto and Jeter. Popping out, logically, is bad – you never pop it for a hit. If you have wondered why Brandon Inge‘s batting average is so low, his 10.1% pops has something to do with it. Brennan Boesch popped out 12.7% of the time… might be a cause for concern.

Jackson also hits a lot more groundballs than he does outfield flies – 50.2% to 20.2%. That does suggest that he might be best suited for a leadoff role (so others are less likely to be on base), but it’s also true that ground balls are more likely to be hits than (in the park) fly balls. So that high ground ball rate is a contributing factor in his high BABIP, and especially important for his total team contribution given that his fly balls aren’t too likely to make it over the fence. 20.6% of Josh Hamilton‘s fly balls left the park last year, compared to 3.3% for Austin Jackson. Keep the ball down. Guys that hit a lot of grounders and a lot of line drives aren’t all that common. Of all the other guys who hit grounders 50% of the time last year, only a handful had a line drive rate over 20% – and, of course, none came close to Jackson’s 26.7%.

Jackson’s no slap hitter, he’s not just trying to put the ball in play. He’s taking big cuts, which is why he strikes out so much, but he isn’t elevating the ball when he does it. He’s no Juan Pierre, but he’s also no Josh Hamilton. The player I’d like to compare him to is Carlos Gonzalez, who rose to fame (and a fat contract extension) on that back of a 26.8% line drive rate and accompanying .384 BABIP. They both sting the ball, and hit the vast majority of them up the middle. That means ground balls are more likely to go for hits, and flies are less likely to be caught in foul territory. CarGo certainly hit a lot more home runs than Jackson did last year, but a lot of credit there has to go to the thin air of Denver, since 26 of his 34 came at Coors. Maybe in Colorado Austin Jackson would be a power hitter? Maybe he’ll grow into power too, like Lou Whitaker, but we can’t ignore the fact that he doesn’t have it now. He was better than CarGo in BABIP, due to fewer pop ups, more ground balls (and fewer fly balls) and a better BABIP on the balls he did hit on the ground. Still: Jackson was an above average player in 2010 with 3.8 FG WAR – CarGo was MVP-caliber with 6. They both project as guys who will maintain BABIPs well above the league average long-term, but CarGo is projected to drop to .350 next year. Of course, at a .350 BABIP he’s still very good. With a .333 BABIP in 2009 he still had an .878 OPS. The same won’t be true for Austin Jackson. He needs a bit more power and he needs to cut down on those strikeouts or a .350 BABIP (which is still pretty good) would make him an offensive liability.

I don’t think a .350 BABIP is likely, aside from some infield hits Jackson’s BABIP doesn’t look like luck. It looks like an odd and fortuitous combination of traits you don’t often see. Still, his BABIP will probably fall a bit – the question is how much. Bill James says 13 points. FanGraphs’ Jack Moore says that he’s a “mortal lock” to drop below .380. FanGraphs fans project him at .360. For someone as dependent on that high BABIP as Jackson is, the difference is extremely important – and never forget that BABIP does still have a pretty significant luck component. What if his BABIP drops to .345? We saw that in June, alWhat Jackson needs is to get a bit less dependent on it. And on that count, I think we’ll see him make noticeable progress in 2011. He’s only 23 and still developing. We know he can be great on defense, he’ll get more consistent. I think we’ll see him walk just a bit more than he did in 2011. I think we’ll see him strike out just a bit less. He’s not going to become Ryan Howard overnight, but I think we’ll see a few more home runs too. Not a huge change anywhere… but steps in the right direction.

With that amazing BABIP in 2010, he only had an OBP of .345 and a SLG of .400. As a 21-year-old in AA in 2008 his BABIP was a more pedestrian .346, but with an OBP of .354 and an SLG of .419. Why? He struck out less – 21.7% of the time instead of 27.4%. He walked more: 9.7% of the time instead of 7% and he hit 9 home runs instead of four. Ultimately, I think that’s what we can expect from Jackson even in a down year – and that will give us production every bit as good as his rookie campaign. At his best? He might look a bit more like CarGo.

Home / Detroit Tigers News

Schedule