Speed and Defense: How Much The Detroit Tigers Added This Offseason

May 2, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Prince Fielder (28) slides into home safely against the Houston Astros in the eighth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Detroit Tigers offseason thus far, at least as far as the offense is concerned, has followed two general guiding principles: add speed and add defense. Or, at least, that’s how the narrative has gone.

Trade Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler? Look at that athleticism upgrade. Move Miguel Cabrera from third base to first? They’re getting better at both positions. Sign Rajai Davis? He’s going to steal every base.

But was does the upgrade actually look like in terms of runs gained (by base running) and runs saved (on defense)?

That question is hard to answer because speed and defense are hard to measure. You need a large sample size to be able to rely on the numbers – it’s said that three years of defensive data equals the reliability of one year of hitting data – but once you have the requisite sample, you end up with a possibly different version of the player than you started with. But we can try, anyway.

What follows is a comparison between the Detroit Tigers team we saw in August and September and the Detroit Tigers team we expect to see in 2014. I’ll use three years of UZR (defense) data and BsR (base running) data, as reported by FanGraphs, for each applicable position below. When utilized, data is scaled to 600 PA or 1250 innings.

Sep 23, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler (5) slides home ahead of the throw to Houston Astros catcher Carlos Corporan (22) on a single by shortstop Elvis Andrus (not shown) during the fourth inning of a baseball game at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

Catcher
2014: Alex Avila
2013: Alex Avila

I’m not going to try to compare the relative merits of backups Brayan Pena and Bryan Holaday, so for now I’ll just call this Avila’s spot and call it a push. In reality we should probably expect worse base running in 2014 than we’ve seen in the past (he’s older now, and running probably peaks earlier in a player’s twenties), but let’s favor 2014 with the numbers and say it’s the same.

Verdict: Even

First Base
2014: Miguel Cabrera
2013: Prince Fielder

Miguel Cabrera hasn’t played first base regularly since 2011, so I used his last (and only, really) three seasons of data at the position to calculate his defensive value. His three-year UZR number comes out better than that of Prince Fielder, but only marginally. We’re talking about two below average first basemen here.

On the running side of things, Cabrera was hampered for the last couple of months in 2013 and turned plenty of doubles into singles or outs, but this only cost him a few fractions of a run in his three-year average.

Verdict: +1 run of defense, +2 runs of base running.

Second Base
2014: Ian Kinsler
2013: Omar Infante

Ian Kinsler is a massive speed and defense upgrade over Prince Fielder, but it’s not really Fielder that he’s replacing, it’s Omar Infante. Kinsler does seem to run the bases aggressively (and well), and so he is a bit of upgrade over Infante in that regard, but his defense is probably not better.

Verdict: -1 run of defense, +3 runs of base running.

Aug 14, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Rajai Davis (11) slides into third base before scoring on a four-base error in the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Right Field
2014: Torii Hunter
2013: Torii Hunter

The third of five spots that stay the same. Hunter is solidly in his decline phase at 38 years of age, but let’s not penalize him for it just now. He didn’t always play like it last year, but he’s probably still close to average in right field, and probably also close to average on the base paths.

Verdict: Even.

Center Field
2014: Austin Jackson
2013: Austin Jackson

Fans like to point out that, for all his speed, Jackson has never been one to steal many bases. And while that’s true, it’s also true that he provides positive base running value without the gaudy stolen base totals. He’s a good runner and defender, but not an upgrade over himself.

Verdict: Even.

Left Field
2014: Andy Dirks (400 PA) / Rajai Davis (200 PA)
2013: Andy Dirks (400 PA) / Matt Tuiasosopo (200 PA)

I’m going to assume that Andy Dirks retains his spot in the strong side of the platoon and that Rajai Davis will be around to start against left-handed pitchers and to pinch run late in games. This isn’t a sure thing, but Davis’ sub-.300 career OBP versus right-handed pitching mitigates his speed advantage on the bases, and his defense in the outfield is well worse than Dirks’.

But if Davis takes the place of Tuiasosopo on the weak side of the platoon, we’ll see real, tangible gains in base running value. Davis isn’t much of a defender (limited sample size on Tui’s defense, but Davis probably isn’t better), but he is one of the better runners in the game when he gets on.

Verdict: +0 runs of defense, +6 runs of base running.

July 10, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder Torii Hunter (left) center fielder Austin Jackson (14) left fielder Andy Dirks (12) and second baseman Ramon Santiago (right) celebrate after the game against the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park. Detroit won 8-5. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Putting it all together

The entirety of the ‘defensive upgrade’ comes down to how much better Castellanos is at third base compared to Cabrera, and we have no credible way of gauging his defense. Not unless you’re a scout, but even scouts haven’t seen him play the position above the AA level, and not since the early part of the 2012 season. Maybe the 2014 Tigers are 10 runs better defensively or maybe they’re no better. We can guess they probably are somewhat better as a team, but it doesn’t look like a defensive revolution.

The base running thing is real, however. This estimate puts the team at +12 runs on the bases compared to last year’s mix of players. Much of that is due to the addition of Davis, but swapping out Fielder for Castellanos and Kinsler for Infante probably each also add a couple of runs.

I’m estimating that the Tigers got 17 runs better in the ‘speed and defense’ categories this offseason (that’s a little more than a win and a half), with the caveat being how little we know about Castellanos’ defense. Maybe we should really think about it as somewhere between 12 and 22 runs (one or two wins) better.

The Tigers were a combined 22.5 runs below average in terms of UZR and BsR, so our expectation for 2014 should be for them to be somewhat below average again.