Detroit Tigers Roundtable: On Nelson Cruz, the Leadoff Spot, and Magical Upgrades

Sep 30, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers right fielder Nelson Cruz (17) watches batting practice before the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Rangers Ballpark at Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Nelson Cruz has been a hot debate topic around here. What would be your maximum offer to him if you were Dave Dombrowski?

Chris Hannum: I would rather have a first round pick than Nelson Cruz, who I expect would be a replacement level player in a large park. If he would sign for 4 years at league minimum, I still wouldn’t do it.

Matt Pelc: I’d give him one year, $6 or $7 million and put some incentives in there like games played, average/home run bench marks. Leftfield would be crowded, but Cruz could stand out from the rest if he’s playing for incentive and is in a contract year with the goal of securing a Jhonny Peralta-like redemption contact in 2015.

Matt Snyder: I don’t think I’d even offer him the minimum. I think he’s a downgrade over the current left field platoon, and probably no better than a push with Victor Martinez at DH. I’m probably being overly harsh here (the Tigers could use a DH next year, and a cheap Cruz could work very well in that spot), but he’s clearly in his decline years and can’t play the field at all.

Scott Byrne: One year in Torii Hunter range – $10-13 mil. But I doubt it will happen due to the draft pick compensation.

Michael Emmerich: I would definitely make him an aggressive one-year offer. Maybe for 12 million. Lack of power, as I explain in this Saturday’s article, could torpedo the Tigers’  hopes of getting out of the AL.

Josie Parnell: While I’m not a fan of Cruz personally, I do believe he could bring some value to the Tigers, but only if the planned Dirks/Davis doesn’t work the way I’m (really, really) hoping it will. That said, if the power was in my hands, I’d offer Cruz 1yr/6 million, if only for the power threat he would bring to the table. It’s up to Cruz to redeem himself and prove he’s truly the player he seems to believe he is, and until then nothing more than one year and $6 million.

Tom Zahari: If I offered Cruz a deal at all, it would be for 2 years, $18 million. Cruz’s power would not translate well from Texas to Detroit not even factoring the PED issue. I would not sign Cruz because he would cost the Tigers a draft pick and money that they could use to improve other aspects of this team, not an outfield that is already pretty well set or a DH spot that already has an everyday player in Victor Martinez.

Josh Paulisin: Don’t want him. You have solid left fielders in Andy Dirks and Rajai Davis. The Tigers will most likely work with a platoon between these two. Adding another outfielder to the mix would just be silly, especially since they have been fiscally responsible this offseason.

Blair Tatrault: With the Tigers’ signing of left fielder Rajai Davis for 2 years and $10 million, it’s hard to see where Cruz would fit into the master plan. He would also cost a first round draft pick, which is a further deterrent to any deal. The appeal, of course, is his potent bat, which would look good in the number five slot in the order. Since impact hitters are hard to find, I’d offer him $16 million over two years, but he won’t take that. If he does, you just turned Davis into the world’s most expensive pinch runner, unless you can flip him. Save the money for Scherzer’s new contract and keep the draft pick. If it turns out we need a bopper, pick one up in July.

Grant Stoye: I am not so hot on Cruz, but if he were willing to accept a 1-year “prove it” kind of deal for around $1-3 million it’d definitely be worth a shot.

Sam O’Toole: I have been a proponent of signing Nelson Cruz and even wrote an article about it.  The Tigers are short on power for 2014 AND 2015, with Hunter and Martinez becoming free agents.  The right deal for Cruz would be a one-year (player option in the second year); he could fill the open designated hitter spot in 2015 if Martinez isn’t retained.  Cruz’s demands are still very high which is the main reason why he isn’t signed to a major league contract yet.  I would offer him one year, $11 million deal with a player option in 2015.  The player option allows Cruz to test the market again if he has a big year in 2014.  Cruz made $10.5 million in 2013, so paying him on a one-year deal for the same amount isn’t out of the question.  Cruz will take the one-year deal from someone before Spring Training.

Summary: the median MCB offer to Cruz would be 1-year, $6.5 million.

Sep 22, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers left fielder Nick Castellanos (30) hits a single in the fifth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

If the Magical Baseball Genie allowed you to instantly upgrade one spot on this Tigers team, which spot would it be?

Chris Hannum: Could that baseball genie maybe get Nick Castellanos‘ rookie year out of the way and turn him into the middle of the order bat that he projects to be?

Matt Pelc: We’re all hoping for the best from Alex Avila, but if I could upgrade just one spot, I would upgrade catcher. Avila struggled mightily at the plate in 2013, but he also struggled behind the plate as well. He threw out just 17 percent of runners attempting to steal last year, easily the lowest of his career. I can deal with a light-hitting catcher who limits stolen bases, but Alex didn’t do anything very well last year.

Matt Snyder: I would upgrade Miguel Cabrera. Not because he’s bad or anything, but geez, can you imagine an upgraded version of Miggy? That would be fun to watch.

Scott Byrne: Catcher. Alex Avila’s 27th birthday is next week, but it seems like he should be 37, and he moves like he is 87. I feel like the 2011 season wrung too much out of him and that was the absolute zenith of his career. Love the guy, he has the heart of a Tiger, but they could really use something more than the 87 OPS+ he delivered last year.

Michael Emmerich: It’s a toss up between third base and the 8th inning bullpen guy, but I’ll go with a set up man. Hey, ZIPS love Castellanos, so why should I worry about that position.  No one loves the Tigers bullpen after Nathan though.

Josie Parnell: In my opinion, left field has already been improved. I happen to be very optimistic about Rajai Davis and the potential he has to improve the team with his speed and base running ability. However, I certainly wouldn’t turn my nose up at a defensively sound everyday left fielder with a power bat and speed if I encountered a magic baseball genie.

Tom Zahari: I would upgrade the middle relief pitching because it is the cheapest thing to do in a big area of need. This did not need to be a magical genie; I am a bit upset that the Tigers did not sign Grant Balfour to the deal the Rays signed him. If the Tigers could have the 7^th an 8^th innings locked down without a question, this team would probably be the most complete in all of baseball.

Josh Paulisin: Third base. No one knows how Nick Castellanos will perform in his first full season of duty. Prospects scare me. They can range from Mike Trout to Matt LaPorta. And when you’re trying to win the World Series, I would rather have a proven player over a young prospect any day.

Blair Tatrault: One more quality arm for the bullpen. Please. Can throw right, left, or both. Have you been watching what Oakland is doing? They are adding strength to an already potent bullpen. I like that approach.

Grant Stoye: I’d upgrade the training/medical staff, so as to prevent any significant injuries whatsoever to this year’s squad. No offense, Kevin Rand.

Sam O’Toole: Corner infield depth. What if Miguel Cabrera gets banged up again this year? Does Brad Ausmus keep playing him like Jim Leyland did at one point? Also remember, Nick Castellanos will begin his first full season and might not produce what an average third baseman would. Compared to last year, the defense on the corners has improved with Cabrera moving to first base, but offensively, the the Tigers are weaker there now, in my opinion. Don Kelly looks like the backup at both positions with Victor Martinez being able to play some first base as well. If one of the starters is out for an extended period (either injury or poor performance), the Tigers will lose some pop to an already power-depleted lineup.

Summary: third base (3), bullpen (3), catcher (2), left field (1), Miguel Cabrera (1), training staff (1)

May 2, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello (21) throws a pitch against the Houston Astros in the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Who’s going to have a better year in the rotation: Drew Smyly or Rick Porcello?

Chris Hannum: Porky. The last piece of the puzzle for him is a defense capable of turning tough double plays – I think we have that now and I’m expecting Porcello’s 2014 era will match his 2013 xFIP and SIERA. I expect an ERA about 4.00 from Smyly.

Matt Pelc: The Tigers are going all-in with Drew Smyly as was seen with the Doug Fister trade. I’m hoping he lives up to the expectations. He was solid in the bullpen last year, but had only a little bit of experience starting in 2012. All that said, I think Smyly will have the better year, though I am hoping and expecting Porcello’s ERA to drop a bit.

Matt Snyder: Smyly had the sexy bullpen ERA last year, but it’s much more difficult when you’re asked to turn over a lineup two or three times in an outing. I think Smyly will be good, but I’m going to say that Porcello wins the ERA battle at 3.8-something. It should be really close though.

Scott Byrne: I like Porcello this year. He really seemed to learn how to pitch last season, gained some velocity and scrapped the slider, and if it weren’t for two hideous starts vs. the Angels his numbers would have been eye-popping. He also stands to benefit greatly from improved infield play behind him. Smyly is a bulldog, but the transition back
to starter will have rough patches. Also, he seemed to tire by the end last year and that was when called on for short stints. Stamina could be an issue for Drew.

Michael Emmerich: From start to finish Porcello will give the Tigers more value, although Smyly will probably have more dominant stretches.

Josie Parnell: I think this is Smyly’s year to shine and become the formidable opponent he’s shown glimpses of being. He has something to prove(the same can be said about Porcello, but it’s hardly the first time he’s had something to prove and it’s yet to really work out for him). Smyly has shown he has the mind, heart, and cajones to take a challenge and opportunity such as this and run with it.

Tom Zahari: Both of these guys will have solid seasons this year that would probably equal the 3 guy for many rotations in baseball, but I think Porcello has a bit of an edge. The book is out on Smyly now and I think some hitters will adjust to his stuff this season, where everyone has known what Porcello is bringing to the mound for a few years now. Porcello’s ERA has improved every season since his second year in the league and his WHIP was down .25 points last season. Porcello could be entering the prime of his career this season and I expect him to take another step forward.

Josh Paulisin: I’ll go with Rick Porcello. I really like Drew Smyly and I’m excited to see him in the rotation for a full year. The fact that he’s a lefty is huge as it’s been a long time since the Tigers had a left handed starter out there every fifth day. But no one will benefit more from the improved infield defense than Porcello. I see him having a career year.

Blair Tatrault: Tough call. Hopefully both are on the ascent. I think Smyly’s going to have a little more trouble than we think against lineups stacked with righties and Porcello made progress against lefties last year, so I give the edge to Porcello.

Grant Stoye: I think Porcello will have a better year. Think about how good he was, as a rookie, in 2009 with an infield of Cabrera, Polanco, Everett, and Inge. I think this year’s infield is better than that one (Cabrera – leaner, more agile, although Castellanos has more to prove defensively).

Sam O’Toole: Rick Porcello. His numbers across the board have improved year-by-year, so he should be able to step into Doug Fister’s old spot in the rotation.  Drew Smyly is coming to the rotation from the bullpen where he was excellent for the Tigers in 2013.  He has starting experience in the majors, but it is a transition from bullpen to the rotation.  I see Porcello emerging into the “Big 4” in the rotation that was talked about last year.

Summary: Porcello (9), Smyly (2)