Detroit Tigers Roundtable: Grading the Offseason and Season Predictions

Feb 14, 2014; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski watches during the Tiger

The Detroit Tigers could still possibly sneak in a move this spring, but it really looks like we can close the books on the offseason. How would you grade Dave Dombrowski and the Tigers on the moves they made?

Chris Hannum: It’s hard to grade DD this year and feel like you’re being fair. I suppose I’ll give him a B-, but you could make the argument that he deserves an A or something much lower. He has overseen a conscious decrease in expected win total while working hard to keep payroll under control.

Scott Byrne: B-minus. On the surface, the moves all seem to be made to appease the mindless section of the fan-base that clamors for a World Series-or-bust: Out with the Crusty Old Manager, in with the handsome, young Ivy Leaguer; out with the overweight, pouty slugger, in with the speedy, hustling second sacker; the bullpen-by-committee is gone, replaced by The Shutdown Closer; out with the three-run dinger, enter small-ball. The one move that was likely savviest is least-loved – three pawns for the popular Doug Fister. If the payroll savings translates into a long-term deal for Max Scherzer, call this off-season an A-minus.

Josie Parnell: I give Dave Dombrowski and the Tigers a (conditional) B for this offseason. If Krol kills it immediately out of the gate and makes an impact in the pen, that grade jumps to A territory. If Krol doesn’t break camp, or has major struggles, then I’d have to drop the grade to a C. I will say that with the magic Dombrowski worked pulling the Fielder trade out of his hat, this off season grade can’t fall below a C for me.

Josh Paulisin: Despite the mind-boggling Doug Fister trade, Dombrowski did an excellent job of filling the needs the Tigers had during the offseason. I like the additions of Kinsler and Davis. Kinsler via trade and Davis via free agency. The lineup finally has the speed it has been lacking. The bullpen improves in the back end with Joe Nathan anchoring down the 9th. We’ll see how things pan out.

Matt Pelc: Let’s consider this the progress report, rather than the report card: B-. I was hoping they’d do more with the bullpen and left field. Depth at catcher and third base are both concerns as well, but I think he did what he needed to. From all reports and rumors, Prince Fielder didn’t want to be here, so you didn’t want a miserable and expensive anchor on the team for another decade. They also got a little bit faster and better defensively, perhaps retooling on the fly to win deeper in the playoffs. We really won’t be able to accurately grade the 2014 off-season until the end of the season.

Tom Zahari: I would give the Tigers a B for this offseason. I am not much of a fan of the Doug Fister move, but we will have to wait a couple of years to see what Robbie Ray and Ian Krol become. I thought the Prince Fielder-Ian Kinsler swap was solid, and I really like the Rajai Davis acquisition. I would have liked to see another bullpen arm, but it was a solid offseason overall.

Michael Emmerich: There are more question marks entering this season than last season, and it didn’t have to be that way. The bullpen is still one question mark after another. Third base is a huge gamble. The catching is thin. The rotation is strong but without any reserves. They are no longer an overwhelming favorite to win the division. So, I give Dombrowski a C-, and only because they are still the slight favorite to win the division.

Matt Snyder: The Fister trade still doesn’t make a ton of sense for a team trying to win a World Series, but Dave Dombrowski deserves high marks for getting out from under the Prince Fielder contract (while getting a worthwhile piece in return). My gut says ‘B-‘ but then again, he’s one of the best GMs in the game and I’m, well, not.

Blair Tatrault: Dombrowski is one of the best in the business, but he gets a “C”. Great job dealing Fielder, that trade was a coup. I’m also fine with the guys they let walk (Peralta, Infante, Benoit, Pena), those were sound decisions under the circumstances. They needed a closer and paid market for Nathan, which was a no-brainer. I’m assuming Brad Ausmus had major input on the Rajai Davis signing, but 2 years at $10 million seems expensive for an aging platoon player, albeit a very fleet one. In my opinion, though, DD flunked the Fister deal. He was too impatient and didn’t get close to full value. One look at what mid-rotation type guys signed for in the late postseason will tell you if he felt compelled to deal Fister, at least he could have waited for a less underwhelming return. Let’s hope Robbie Ray is what DD and the scouts think he is. Also, the bullpen still worries me. Chamberlain is a $2.5M coin flip. I’m also not sure why Phil Coke is still on the payroll.

Sam O’Toole: Unloading all but $30 million of Prince Fielder’s deal and getting Ian Kinsler in return was the best move of the offseason for the Tigers by far.  The Tigers wanted to get more speed on their roster, so signing Rajai Davis to platoon in left was also a good move.  They could have held on to Doug Fister for one more year (free agent in 2016) and still get a deal similar to the one they worked out with the Nationals after the 2014 season.  Joe Nathan was an important signing as he replaces a steady Joaquin Benoit.  Signing a power bat or another more reliable bullpen arm would push the grade higher.

Feb 14, 2014; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Phil Coke (40) throws during the Detroit Tiger

We’re all thinking (probably) that the final roster is pretty much known, but if you were forced to predict one surprise cut, what would it be?

Chris Hannum: Andy Dirks. If he stinks it up in the Spring, I don’t think he has any store of goodwill to draw upon.

Scott Byrne: Let’s appease the Freep commenters – Don Kelly. Or how about Phil Coke. Seriously, Jordan Lennerton could provide a power source that is lacking from the projected final roster. And if Casey Crosby can locate the dish consistently, his explosive arsenal makes Coke expendable and saves a few dollars as well.

Josie Parnell:  While I don’t really anticipate this happening, I’ve heard Jose Ortega is throwing fire in his BP sessions and really making his case to make the team. If he continues to throw as he has been, he could give Luke Putkonen a run for his money, and his bullpen spot.

Josh Paulisin: Phil Coke. With Jose Alvarez and newly acquired Ian Krol competing to be contributors this season, Coke may be the odd man out after a rough 2013 campaign.

Matt Pelc: Phil Coke will not go north with the team. The Tigers have a few relievers that were shuttled between AAA and Detroit last year that will do a better job than Coke.

Tom Zahari: The most likely cuts will come in the bullpen with the possibility of a few guys getting shuffled around between the Toledo Mud Hens and the Tigers. If I had to predict one real surprise cut, I could see Phil Coke getting cut if he has a terrible Spring Training and other lefties light it up. I would also keep an eye on Trevor Crowe, Daniel Fields and Tyler Collins possibly contending for a surprise outfield spot.

Michael Emmerich: If Castellanos bombs it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Tigers send him down for while to readjust to playing third base. Then we’ll probably see Lombo and Cabrera rotate at third.

Matt Snyder: I think Phil Coke could end up on the chopping block if he doesn’t impress in live action, but I also think there’s a non-zero chance that Ezequiel Carrera beats out Don Kelly as an extra outfielder/pinch runner. Kelly is no longer the teams best option as a backup third baseman, pinch runner, or center fielder, but his versatility is still going to give him a spot unless someone else forces their way onto the squad.

Blair Tatrault: Back-up catcher Bryan Holaday. He doesn’t hit that much and James McCann could catch Ausmus’s eye, who might want to tutor him on a daily basis at the big league level. Not likely, though, as McCann is Toledo-bound for more Triple A at-bats. I didn’t include Phil Coke here because it won’t be a surprise if he has a bad spring and is released.

Sam O’Toole: Phil Coke.  I’m not sure how surprising that would be because of his poor 2013 season, a new manager and a non-guaranteed deal.  But, Coke has been a Tiger since he was acquired from the Yankees in the Curtis Granderson deal before the 2010 season.  Coke has had his struggles in the Old English D, but he really imploded last season.  I don’t see the Tigers giving up on Al Alburquerque, who is still a great talent when healthy and under team control until 2018.  Don Kelly looks like he will make the Opening Day roster as well.

Feb 14, 2014; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer (37) signs autographs after the Detroit Tiger

Let’s get everyone on the record: how many wins do you predict for the Tigers in 2014, and what will be the order of finish for the AL Central teams?

Chris Hannum: 91 wins, Tigers atop the division 2 games ahead of KC and 4 ahead of Cleveland. Mini Soda finishes .500 and leaves Chicago in a distant fifth.

Scott Byrne: 92 wins, good for first place; followed by Kansas City, the White Sox, Cleveland and the Twins.

Josie Parnell: I’m going with the Tigers having a record of 93-69 this season, and I predict the Central will end up as follows: Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City (tough call on 2nd and 3rd place, these could easily be switched and/or separated by a single game), Minnesota, Chicago

Josh Paulisin: 104. I just think Ausmus will bring new life to a talented, but aging team. With the window for winning for the World Serires closing each year, the Tigers need to make it happen soon. I feel a big season is in store for the Tigers.

Matt Pelc: This division is not a pushover anymore. I believe the Tigers will win the division, but it would not shock me if they did not like it would have the last couple years. With that said, I think the Tigers’ 94 wins will take the Central by three games over the Royals. Cleveland will finish around .500 in third, followed by the Twins and White Sox.

Tom Zahari: I expect the Tigers to win more than 90 games this season and win the AL Central. If I had to put an exact number of wins, I would say 92. For the AL Central I think it will go: 1. Detroit Tigers, 2. Cleveland Indians, 3. Kansas City Royals, 4. Chicago White Sox, 5. Minnesota Twins

Michael Emmerich: 87 wins, edging out the Royals, and then in order the Indians, Twins, and White Sox.

Matt Snyder: I think the Tigers win 91 games and finish six in front of the next best team. I think Cleveland and Kansas City battle it out for the second spot, with Chicago and Minnesota bringing up the rear.

Blair Tatrault: 1. Detroit–90 wins, 2. Cleveland, 3. Kansas City, 4. Chicago, 5. Minnesota

Sam O’Toole: 95 wins.  My AL Central Order: Tigers, Indians, Royals, White Sox, Twins.

In 2013, the Tigers went 93-69 but their Pythagorean W-L record was 99-63, six games worse than how their record should have looked.  Also remember, the Tigers lost their final three games of the season after clinching the division.  The loss of Doug Fister, the lack of pop in the lineup and the improving Indians will keep the win total below 100, but the team is still really good.  The Tigers went 15-4 vs. Cleveland in 2013, which more than likely won’t happen again.  But going 11-17 against the Marlins, Angels and Twins doesn’t look probable either.  The only change in the standings is at the bottom, and the Indians will be tough as long as Terry Francona is the manager.