Detroit Tigers: Top Five Bold Predictions for 2015
Mar 10, 2015; Clearwater, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers shortstop
Jose Iglesias(1) dives and throws to first base during the first inning of a spring training baseball game at Bright House Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
There probably isn’t a team in sports who has won four consecutive division titles the media is doubting more than the Detroit Tigers.
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Whether its injuries, age or performance decline, Detroit just isn’t capturing the hearts of America.
It would be naive to suggest there is no risk in the current Tigers roster, but as the saying goes, with great risk comes great reward.
At Motor City Bengals, we tend to believe the Detroit Tigers could see big rewards during the 2015 season. Here are five bold predictions for Detroit Tigers this summer.
Mar 13, 2015; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers outfielder
Anthony Gose(12) fouls a pitch off in the fourth inning of the spring training game against the Atlanta Braves at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
CF Anthony Gose Will Make the All-Star Team
The title says “Bold Predictions” so why not start out with a bang.
Coming into Spring Training, the Tigers were just hoping Gose would be able to play at a high enough level to win the starting center field job. In order to do that, Gose had to prove he can hit against lefties otherwise he would more than likely platoon with fellow center fielder Rajai Davis.
It is a small sample size, but Gose is 2-for-5 this spring versus left-handed pitching. He is also 13-for-25, .520, overall this month with three doubles, three triples, nine runs, six RBI and four steals.
Gose has a lot more work to do to become an All-Star by July, but if he can continue to get on base in the regular season, his speed should attract many voters.
Mar 8, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman
Miguel Cabrera(24) smiles from the field before a spring training baseball game against the Houston Astros at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
1B Miguel Cabrera Wins His Third AL MVP
The Tigers first baseman had a down season last year after winning back-to-back AL MVP awards in 2012 and 2013. In 2012, he became the first hitter since Carl Yastremski to win the Triple Crown with 44 home runs, 139 RBI and a .348 batting average.
Last season, though, he hit .313 with 25 home runs and 109 RBI.
As I have written many times before, the fact those numbers are considered “down” should tell fans how productive Cabrera really could be.
Many are worried at age 32 and coming off foot surgery in October, Cabrera won’t return to his MVP type numbers.
Motor City Bengals disagrees.
The surgery could really help Cabrera, who really didn’t look healthy down the stretch last season or the year prior, and yet he still competed for one of the best averages in the American League. Cabrera is moving along just fine in his rehab this spring and if healthy, will return to his MVP type numbers.
Mar 12, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher
Justin Verlander(35) pitches during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
SP Justin Verlander Will Finish in the Top 5 in the AL Cy Young Vote
Like Cabrera, Verlander has seen a decrease in his numbers since his MVP season, but for Verlander, that was four years ago.
In his 2011 MVP season, his average fastball was 95.0 MPH according to Fan Graphs. Since then, Verlander’s heater has dropped to 94.3 MPH in 2012, 93.3 MPH in 2013 and 92.3 MPH last season.
It would be unrealistic to expect Verlander’s velocity to return, but if the former ace comes to terms that he needs to be more of a finesse pitcher at 32 years old, Verlander has enough other pitches to carry Detroit once more.
The Tigers right-hander also had a much better offseason than he did last year. Before the 2014 season, Verlander had surgery to repair a core muscle which caused him to come into camp 15 pounds under his normal weight.
This spring, he came into camp heavier than normal, having added muscle. Verlander has also looked sharp this month as he has only allowed two hits and no runs through five innings in two starts.
Oct 5, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers manager
Brad Ausmus(right) and trainers Kevin Rand check on catcher
Alex Avila(13) after he is struck by a ball in the sixth inning during game three of the 2014 ALDS baseball playoff game against the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
SS Jose Iglesias and C Alex Avila Will Both Reach 400 At-bats
This one is a lot harder to predict because as fans saw when a ball hit Iglesias in his recovering shin during batting practice, there is a lot of luck involved in avoiding injury.
The same can be said for Avila, who always seems to take a foul ball in the face mask right after he has returned from a concussion.
Iglesias has never reached 400 at-bats during one season in his career, and Avila hasn’t reached that plateau since 2011.
Each player will likely have to start about 125 games to record 400 at-bats. The Tigers would love for both players to be that healthy this season.
Mar 14, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers relief pitcher
Joe Nathan(36) throws a pitch during the fifth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
RP Joe Nathan Will Not Finish the Season with the Tigers
It is probably bolder to state Nathan will be a top closer this season at the age of 40, but even Motor City Bengals isn’t that bold.
Nathan was having a decent spring until the Philadelphia Phillies lit him up on Thursday for six runs, four earned on five hits in two-thirds of an inning.
If Nathan struggles early like he did last season, he very well could lose his closing role to Joakim Soria or Bruce Rondon. In that scenario, Nathan would have to become a middle reliever, which might prove to be too big of an adjustment for him.
With the exception of a couple months in 2011, Nathan has been a closer since 2004 meaning he is trained for one inning and to come into the game with no one on base.
Middle relievers don’t have the luxury.
Additionally, middle relievers sometimes warm up multiple times per game because situations change in the middle innings. That is something Nathan probably won’t be able to withstand at his age.
Therefore, if Nathan does indeed lose his closer job, he very well could lose his job altogether in Detroit.