Detroit Tigers: Could Detroit Trade for an Ace?
Detroit Tigers starting pitchers have been up and down this season. Some, like Michael Fulmer and Justin Verlander have excelled. Others struggled mightily. Could Detroit trade for another ace?
Detroit Tigers fans have seen a number of ace starters over the years. From Kenny Rodgers to Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer to David Price, there have certainly been a number of elite pitchers to don the Old English “D.” Rookie sensation Michael Fulmer and recent first-round draft pick Matt Manning both have the potential join that group, but should the Tigers trade for another ace?
There are a number of conceivable trade targets on the market who qualify as aces. Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer is out there, as is Oakland’s Sonny Gray and Atlanta’s Julio Teheran.
All three would be excellent fits in Detroit, but there are caveats to bringing in all three.
First off, Detroit shouldn’t be looking to deal future pieces. That means players and prospects like Daniel Norris, Bruce Rondon, Christin Stewart, Joe Jimenez and JaCoby Jones aren’t going anywhere.
Secondly, Atlanta may value Teheran too highly. The Braves sold extremely high on Shelby Miller in the offseason, and Teheran is arguably having a better season this year than Miller did during the 2015 campaign. Based on this, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the current Atlanta pitcher cost an exorbitant amount in a trade.
Additionally, it looks like Archer could end up staying in Tampa Bay. On Sunday, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the “Rays have told teams Chris Archer is not available unless somebody totally overwhelms them. So, he’s not available.”
There goes any hope of buying low on Tampa’s latest ace. That leaves…
Sonny Gray
With Teheran and Archer likely too expensive for the Tigers, that leaves Gray as the last ace standing who could fit in with the Tigers. Just 26-years-old, the Oakland starter owns a career 3.25 ERA and a 3.57 FIP to go along with a 37-28 record.
These numbers are all despite a 2016 campaign that has so far seen the ace post a 5.12 ERA, a 4.62 FIP and a 4-8 record in 96.2 innings pitched. Gray pitched well early in the season, but a 10-game stretch from May to early July forced the pitcher’s numbers to balloon. In the 10 games, the right-hander allowed 44 runs in only 56.1 innings pitched.
There isn’t really any way around it, Sonny Gray has struggled this season, but he still holds plenty of appeal. From 2013 to 2015, the A’s starter posted a 33-20 record, a miniscule 2.88 ERA and a 10.3 WAR. Gray also made the All-Star team and finished third in the Cy Young voting in 2015.
Additionally, he is controllable. The Vanderbilt product won’t hit free agency until 2020. With the contracts of Justin Upton, Sanchez and Pelfrey potentially coming off the books after 2017, the Tigers will have plenty of money to spend on Gray’s arbitration seasons and beyond.
A four-man playoff rotation of Justin Verlander, Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann and Gray is pretty formidable. Add Daniel Norris to the mix and the Tigers are set for at least the next three or four years with a potentially elite rotation.
How Detroit Would Go About Acquiring Sonny Gray
It isn’t clear what kind of return Oakland would want for Gray. However, considering that he’s struggling and that fellow potential trade chip Rich Hill recently exited a start after “Aggravating a blister on his left middle finger,” (per MLB.com), the A’s could conceivably be more open to dealing Gray.
One proposal that would seem to work for all parties would see Detroit send Matt Boyd, Austin Kubitza, Steven Moya, Kade Scivicque and Mike Aviles to Oakland for Gray, Danny Valencia and Coco Crisp.
On the surface, this may seem like a trade that mortgages the future, but it’s far from it. Gray is only two years older than Boyd, and (obviously) much more of a finished product. What’s more, Kubitza and Scivicque are blocked on the organizational depth chart in the starting rotation and behind the plate.
Prospects like Matt Manning, Kyle Funkhouser, Beau Burrows, Tyler Alexander and Jairo Labourt all figure to have higher ceilings than Kubitza, while Spencer Turnbull, Kevin Ziomek and Myles Jaye also provide starting depth.
At catcher, Detroit is set with James McCann for what will hopefully be another eight to 10 years. When Jarrod Saltalamacchia eventually moves on, John Hicks will likely fill in as McCann’s deputy. Elsewhere, Arvicent Perez and Grayson Greiner are moving through the ranks in the low minors.
In terms of Moya, the outfielder has tremendous power, but remains a work in progress in the field. If he can improve up that, Detroit should hang on to him. However, if he continues to struggle, the Tigers should deal him in the right deal—like for Gray.
It’s not as if the team doesn’t have long-term outfield depth.
Top prospect Christin Stewart is excelling in the lower minors, and could be in Detroit sooner rather than later. Additionally, JaCoby Jones should make the Tigers out of Spring Training next season, while Tyler Collins presents a solid all-around option at the Major League level. This is all without mentioning incumbent starters J.D. Martinez, Cameron Maybin and Justin Upton. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the trio stay in Detroit for the long term.
Initially thought to bring a blend of defensive flexibility and some pop to the bench, Mike Aviles has simply provided defensive flexibility. The utility player has struggled at the dish, posting a .266 on-base percentage.
Detroit would bring in a significant upgrade in the hypothetical deal by acquiring Valencia, who is hitting .304 with 12 home runs and 33 RBI. Valencia has seen time at third base, first base, second base and both corner outfield positions in his career.
Rounding out the deal is Coco Crisp. Detroit would be taking on the rest of Crisp’s salary for Oakland to help facilitate the deal.
Per MLBTradeRumors.com, the outfielder has a $13 million option for next season that “vests at 550 plate appearances or 130 games played in 2016. So far, Crisp has logged 309 plate appearances and played in 74 games.
By adding Crisp, the Tigers would allow the A’s to continue playing without having to worry about Crisp’s contract potentially vesting for next season. The veteran outfielder would play in a reserve role for Brad Ausmus’ club and wouldn’t come close to reaching the stats needed to have his contract vest.
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Detroit could also add Mark Lowe’s contract to the deal to somewhat even out the salaries.