Detroit Tigers: Why A Potential Justin Wilson Trade Return Should Be Significant

Why Justin Wilson Could Have Value on the Trade Market Should Detroit Decide to Move Him

Not only does Justin Wilson throw hard and miss bats (12.5 swinging strike percentage), but he’s also controllable at a relatively inexpensive rate.

Per Spotrac, the reliever is controllable through 2018. Additionally, MLBTradeRumors projects a $2.7 million salary for the 29-year-old in 2017.

Elsewhere on the free agent market, fellow relievers like Joaquin Benoit and Marc Rzepczynski are signing deals with values that far exceed Wilson’s projected salary.

In a tweet sent out on Monday afternoon, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, “Joaquin Benoit’s one-year deal with Phillies will pay him $7.5 million, according to a source. That is what he made in 2016, too.”

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported the specifics of Rzepczynski’s contract, tweeting on December 2^nd, “Marc Rzepczynski’s deal with #Mariners is for 2 years and $11M. He gets $5.5M each year.”

Benoit’s WAR in 2016 was 0.5. Rzepczynski’s WAR checked in at 0.4.

Justin Wilson’s WAR in 2016? 1.0.

Detroit’s setup man is without question the better reliever of the three, and given the high prices on the free agent market, teams may be willing to give up more in a trade to save money.

Recent Deals

While the free agent market has provided a number of relatively lucrative contracts for relievers lately, teams have also received excellent returns in recent trades for bullpen arms.

The Kansas City Royals flipped Wade Davis to the Chicago Cubs for Jorge Soler.

Davis is under team control for one more season, while Soler doesn’t reach free agency until the conclusion of the 2020 campaign and looks like a potential middle-of-the-order bat.

While Wilson doesn’t have the track record that Davis does, Detroit’s setup reliever should still fetch a high price in a trade should the Tigers chose to move him.

Another recent example that may be more comparable is the Tyler Thornburg trade.

Boston acquired the 28-year-old for Travis Shaw and a pair of minor league prospects with Major League upside.

Over the past two seasons, Shaw has accumulated 3.0 WAR while providing pop at both infield corner spots. The 26-year-old isn’t arbitration eligible until after the 2018 season, and is under team control through 2021.

Last season, Shaw drove in 71 runs in 145 games. He also collected 63 runs scored, 34 doubles, 16 home runs, five stolen bases and a pair of triples.

Additionally, one of the two prospects heading to the Brewers, Mauricio Dubon, batted .339 in Double-A last season. He could be in the Majors before too long.

The third prospect in the deal, Josh Pennington, is a 21-year-old starting pitcher who owns a 2.29 ERA in the low minors.

If Justin Wilson is Dealt

Should the Detroit Tigers decide to trade Justin Wilson, a similar return to the one Milwaukee received for Thornburg would make sense.

The Tigers are looking to contend. At this point, dealing Wilson for a couple of pitchers in Rookie ball simply isn’t going to help.

That being said, if Detroit can acquire a controllable, young, Major League player with ability and upside—as well as a prospect for the future—it would benefit the team in the long run.

What’s more, Detroit can afford to move Wilson given the team’s sudden depth in the bullpen. Bruce Rondon, Shane Greene and Joe Jimenez all represent hard-throwing options for Brad Ausmus, while Alex Wilson, Kyle Ryan and Blaine Hardy can provide quality innings.

This is all without mentioning Mark Lowe, who could rebound, as well as potential rookies in Victor Alcantara, Chad Bell and Myles Jaye who could contribute.

There’s also the possibility of a converted starting pitcher or two making the switch to the bullpen next season.

Anibal Sanchez showed well in a limited role as a reliever last season. With a crowded rotation, he could conceivably pitch in relief next season.

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Mike Pelfrey and Buck Farmer are two other starters who could transition into relieving. However, Sanchez, Pelfrey and Farmer would likely be more depth options that would allow the likes of Hardy and Ryan to pitch later in games.