Detroit Tigers: Assessing whether team can contend in next two seasons

Detroit Tigers general manager Al Avila is in the midst of a full-blown rebuild. With the Tigers embracing a youth movement it’s fair to wonder when the team will be in contention again.

Detroit Tigers fans could see some more trades before all is said and done this offseason.

It obviously remains to be seen what the team will do this winter, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the likes of Ian Kinsler, Jose Iglesias and Andrew Romine traded at some point.

There’s also veteran starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who has a $16 million option on his contract, according to Spotrac, that can be bought out for $5 million.

In other words, changes could be coming and the youth movement will continue.

For some teams youth movements pay early dividends.

The Rockies’ young rotation helped propel the team to a playoff berth in 2017, while Minnesota’s young core helped the team surprise the league in qualifying for the postseason as a Wild Card.

With the Tigers finishing with baseball’s worst record in 2017, it also remains to be seen when the team will return to contention.

It’s entirely possible that Detroit could once again end up with a top-10 record after the next season or two.

However, it’s also possible the team could take some positive steps forward during that span.

So will the Detroit Tigers contend in the next two season?

Returning to some form of contention in the next two years is possible

Let’s get this out of the way first, the Detroit Tigers will probably need a lot of bounce-back performances for the team to improve.

The team will also need some prospects and additions from outside the organization to immediately make an impact.

That’s all easier said than done and may require some good fortune, but the Tigers certainly aren’t a team devoid of talent.

Resurgent seasons from Michael Fulmer and Miguel Cabrera will give the team a solid base to build on.

Meanwhile, the offense should also benefit from continued improvements from the likes of Nicholas Castellanos, Mikie Mahtook, Jeimer Candelario and James McCann.

The reality is that Detroit should be fine offensively even if Ian Kinsler is dealt. Teams have done better with worse offenses.

Where the Tigers really need to take steps forward, regardless of their place in the standings, is in the pitching department.

Whether it be the rotation or the bullpen, improvements are needed.

Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris and Jordan Zimmermann all struggled at times last season, while the relievers were the only bullpen unit to have a collective WAR (-1.2) below zero.

The positive news here is that there is potential for improvement and effectiveness out of Detroit’s pitchers.

If Boyd and Norris pitch like 2.0+ fWAR pitchers and Zimmermann regains some past form and consistency, it would go a long ways towards stabilizing the rotation and the pitching staff as a whole.

The bullpen

Elsewhere, the Tigers have a number of talented relievers who could be turn into key contributors if they can start to figure things out.

Most prominent among them is Joe Jimenez.

Jimenez has the potential to be a shutdown, late-inning reliever.

After dominating hitter sin the minors, Jimenez made his Major League debut in 2017. While he didn’t exactly light the world on fire (4.81 SIERA, 4.26 walks allowed per nine innings in 19 frames), there were some encouraging signs in terms of missing bats.

Only four Detroit relievers had a higher swinging strike percentage than Jimenez’ 11.8 number.

One of those four was Victor Alcantara, who could pair with lefty Jairo Labourt to give the Tigers a pair of hard-throwing options earlier in games.

Add in Bryan Garcia, Zac Reininger and Drew VerHagen, and there’s potential for a promising young bullpen if the hurlers start make adjustments.

Even if just two of the aforementioned group start to figure things out and become dependable relief options, the Tigers will be in decent place.

Combine said relievers with Shane Greene, Alex Wilson, Daniel Stumpf and a veteran, place holder signing from the free agent market like Tony Watson or Luke Gregerson and Detroit’s bullpen may just be a strength.

The reality of the situation

In a perfect world, the Detroit Tigers would be able to play meaningful baseball into July or August next season.

However, that is a perfect world scenario as it is and might be unlikely if some of 2017’s trends repeat themselves.

If Cabrera continues to struggle at the dish, Boyd, Norris and Zimmermann all go through lengthy spells of inconsistency and the bullpen fails to make progress, the team will once again be sunk in the standings.

However, if Detroit can hit on some veteran free agent signings and make some progress across the board, they could eventually build themselves into a surprise Wild Card contender by 2019.

By that point, Franklin Perez, Christin Stewart, Grayson Long, Mike Gerber, Beau Burrows, Garcia and Dawel Lugo should be integrated into the team with the likes of Daz Cameron, Kyle Funkhouser, Sandy Baez and Jake Rogers closer to the Majors.

In conclusion

Baseball is a fickle sport and the standings often fluctuate from season to season. Just look at the Twins.

Minnesota has rattled off win totals of 70, 83, 59 and 85 in the past four seasons.

While the Detroit Tigers seem set for another year (or possibly two) of rebuilding, a lot can happen in two years around the league.

A pennant, or even a playoff berth may too far out of reach in the next two years.

Next: Tigers/Marlins trade ideas

However, the Tigers have the potential to lay the groundwork for a team that could bring a World Series trophy back to the Motor City in the following years.