Detroit Tigers: Should they sell high on Mikie Mahtook?

Detroit Tigers fans saw a strong debut season in the Motor City from Mikie Mahtook. With the Tigers in full-on rebuild mode, should the franchise look to sell high on Mahtook in a trade?

Detroit Tigers outfielder Mikie Mahtook was one of the few bright spots for the team in 2017.

In a season that was a perfect storm, or imperfect storm if you prefer, of injuries, inconsistency and rough luck, the ex-Rays outfielder stood out.

Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays for reliever Drew Smith in the offseason, the Louisiana State product was a cost-efficient replacement for Cameron Maybin.

According to Spotrac, Maybin made $9 million in 2017. Per the same publication, Mahtook took home $541,300 last season.

It’s also worth noting that the current Tigers player was a significant upgrade over his predecessor at the plate.

Cameron Maybin in 2017: 1.2 fWAR, 88 wRC+, .300 wOBA, .683 OPS, 20.9 strikeout percentage, .137 ISO.

Mikie Mahtook in 2017: 1.6 fWAR, 107 wRC+, .335 wOBA, .787 OPS, 20.8 strikeout percentage, .181 ISO.

While Mahtook’s season was certainly encouraging, this is a rebuild after all.

If the Tigers were still contending, the outfielder would probably be untouchable due to his controllability (per Spotrac he’s controllable for four more seasons) and youth.

But this isn’t a contending team, this is a rebuilding situation—and in a rebuild, any move that can make the team better over the long run is worth a look

That’s why there could be plenty of trade speculation and talk in the next year or two about Michael Fulmer. It’s why it makes sense for the Tigers to shop Shane Greene.

But should the Detroit Tigers try to sell high on Mikie Mahtook?

Long-term piece?

In a time where controllability is king, Mikie Mahtook certainly fits the bill as a long-term asset for a team.

However, is that team the Detroit Tigers?

The question is more, can the Tigers contend in the next four years?

In a perfect world, Detroit will be able to surprise some people next season and expedite the rebuild somewhat.

Relatively strong seasons from Fulmer, Matthew Boyd and Daniel Norris would certainly go a long way toward achieving that goal.

That being said, the reality is that much of Detroit’s exciting young talent is either at Double-A or in the low minors.

So while the likes of Franklin Perez, Beau Burrows, Grayson Long and Dawel Lugo could be in the Majors at some point next season, it could also take them longer to reach Detroit.

All in all, there are a lot of variables that could make this a shorter rebuild or a lengthier one.

If the Tigers think they can turn things around sooner rather than later, it make sense to hang on to Mahtook.

However, if it’s a lengthier rebuild, Detroit may find it prudent to move Mahtook while his value is high.

The team also have Mike Gerber and Christin Stewart close to the Majors.

Detroit can always deal Mahtook for prospects and sign a veteran to a short-term deal to serve as a place holder for Gerber or Stewart.

Can the Detroit Tigers move Mahtook for a relatively premium return? Or at least significant pieces that can help the team in the future?

These two questions would probably be easy yeses from an answer standpoint if the free agent and trade markets were devoid of outfield options.

However, that’s not exactly the case.

The free agent market is littered with outfield bats, many of whom (J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson—I can keep going—Rajai Davis and Cameron Maybin) used to play for Detroit.

There’s also plenty of other intriguing outfielders who aren’t former Tigers, from Michael Brantley and Lorenzo Cain to Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez and Jay Bruce.

Purely from a financial standpoint, other teams may find it more appealing to trade for Mahtook than overpay an aging player with a multi-year deal as said player begins to decline.

Per Spotrac, the outfielder has four years of controllability left and isn’t eligible until arbitration until after the 2018 campaign.

The trade market

Mahtook certainly wouldn’t draw the kind of prospect haul that other outfielders conceivably on the trade market would.

The likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Randal Grichuk hold more value than the Detroit outfielder based on their respective track records.

Still, in a similar vein to the free agent market, Mahtook could appeal to teams who aren’t willing to sacrifice the kind of prospect capital required to nab Yellich or Grichuk.

If Mahtook is shopped, the Tigers should market him as a center fielder to maximize any potential return.

His power and extra-base ability plays better in center field, where slugging players are less common.

Had Mahtook qualified from a plate appearances standpoint, he would have tied for eighth in the league among center fielders in ISO.

The seven players with a higher ISO number include Andrew McCutchen, Chris Taylor, Tommy Pham, George Springer, Granderson, Charlie Blackmon and some Anaheim player named Mike Trout. Might have heard of him.

Speculative trade partners

Given Mahtook’s ability to slot in at any of the three outfield spots, he could be a fit for pretty much any team in the league.

His defensive metrics in 2017 (-2.0 UZR/150, -13 DRS, -4.3 ARM) weren’t anything to write home about.

However, the former first-round pick showed much better in 2016 (10.9 ZUR/150, + 1 DRS, 0.9 ARM) and 2015 (29.7, -1 DRS, -0.1 ARM), suggesting 2017 could simply be an off year defensively.

Additionally, his second half surge this season should be any doubt about his hitting ability to rest after a down year at the plate in 2016 (33 wRC+ in 196 plate appearances) and a slow start (48 wRC+, .249 wOBA in 63 plate appearances through May 31) to 2017.

Mahtook hit .283 with a .356 on-base percentage, a .486 slugging percentage, a .841 OPS, a .203 ISO, a .358 wOBA and a 122 wRC+.

He also tacked on an 8.4 walk percentage and a 19.7% strikeout rate as his BABIP finished at .327.

Trade fits

All that being said, the Toronto Blue Jays stand out as a potential fit.

Detroit could look to combine their trade chips and move Ian Kinsler and Mahtook for a greater return from a Toronto team that will enter 2018 with an outfield mix of Kevin Pillar, Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Alford, Ezequiel Carrera and Steve Pearce.

The Jays also have a significant need at second base as well. The case could probably be made for Jose Iglesias in this situation as well, considering Toronto’s needs up the middle.

Seattle also has an outfield need with Dyson potentially departing. Mahtook would provide an upgrade over either Ben Gamel in left or Guillermo Heredia in center field.

There’s also San Francisco, a team that could use some youth in outfield that starts Denard Span and Hunter Pence on a regular basis.

Anaheim is a fit if Upton leaves town.

However at this point unless the Tigers can snag some combination of Jo Adell, Jahmai Jones and Griffin Canning, the team should probably look elsewhere after already acquiring prospects from a then-thin Anaheim farm system in past deals for Upton, Maybin and Jefry Marte.