Detroit Tigers: Predicting the 2018 Starting Rotation

Who will be the opening day starter? Answer: Michael Fulmer.

Fulmer is the Tiger’s new ace, and I do not expect him to be traded. The Yankees and Rangers were the two teams to really ask about him. The Rangers do not have the farm system to acquire him. Unless they threw in Nomar Mazara, the Tigers should not trade him to the Rangers.

The Yankees have one of baseball’s deepest farm systems, but they do not want to give up Gleyber Torres. The Yankees are also supposedly deep in talk with Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole now.

The Philadelphia Phillies are known to be searching for a young controllable starter, and Fulmer fits that category. It is not known if the Phillies have asked about him though, but they do have a good farm system.

Fulmer will be with the Tigers on opening day 2018, but possibly not opening day 2019.

Fulmer is under team control for 5 more seasons and after two seasons is already worth over 8.0 WAR. In 2016 he was named AL ROY and in 2017 was named to his first All-Star Game. He did struggle in the second half of 2017 and eventually underwent surgery, but he still is a possible Cy Young contender.

Surprsingly, his K/9 number are kind of low for the great stuff Fulmer has. His career K/9 is 6.8, but his BB/9 is only 2.3 and his career WHIP is 1.137. He has a career FIP of 3.71 and an ERA+ of 128. Those are very good numbers, not great, but still solid.

Most folks in the baseball world are predicting another all-star caliber season, and he will possibly be the only all-star representative for the Tigers. He will also be named in Cy Young voting, but unfortunately not recieving the award. Yet.

Next up is the veteran of the Tigers rotation.

JORDAN ZIMMERMANN

Next in the rotation is the oft-injured Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann signed a huge five year deal with the Tigers to be the co-ace alongside former Tiger Justin Verlander. This proved to be  a mistake.

Zimmermann is almost assuredly not going to be traded, so he needs to stay healthy and pitch like he did in Washington D.C. In 2016 he managed an ERA+ of 88 and 75 in 2017, while averaging less than 6 .0 K/9 after managing around 7.0 K/9 with the Nationals.

With the Nationals he never had an FIP above  3.75 in a full season and he never had an ERA+ of under 100 in a full season. While he gave up some home runs in a Nationals uniform, he gave up his career high in 2017 at 29. 29! If he can get it down to even his 2016 number of 14, his numbers will improve significantly. Zimmermann also gave up the most earned runs in the American League at 108.

One thing he has done well is limiting his walks. With 2.2 BB/9 in 2016 and 2.5 BB/9 in 2017, they are the highest numbers in his career; but they are still fairly low.

He did have a positive WAR in both seasons with the Tiger’s, but they were just barely over 0.0 with 0.2 in 2016 and 0.3 in 2017.

If he can stay healthy and pitch around 180 innings while being a veteran prescence for the younger players he might just earn his value back.

MATT BOYD

The middle of the rotation will feature left-handed starter Matt Boyd, who has dealt with inconsistency, but nearly threw a no-hitter. I believe Boyd will pitch over 150 innings in 2018. His career numbers may not be pretty, career FIP of 5.00 and an ERA+ of 80, but there is reason for optimism.

After he revamped his pitching mechanics last year he became the Tiger’s second best pitcher and nearly threw a no-hitter. He has also lowered his HR/9 numbers every year, lowering his FIP.

Matt Boyd was worth 1.3 WAR, according to Baseball Reference, and is still under team control for five more seasons. He will need to bring down his 1.5 WHIP, but what he showed in the second half of 2017, shows me that he is very capable of that. He pitched to a 2.95 ERA in September and he had a WHIP of 1.120.

Boyd actually started 25 games and pitched one game in relief in 2017, so he should have a leg up in the starting rotation competition.

Baseball-Reference’s prediction for Boyd in 2018 is not too far out of the question. 7.9 K/9 is higher than his career numbers, but also very in line with them. 9.5 H/9 seems very likely, but a predicted WHIP of 1.422 seems a little high; even with the 9.5 H/9.  Hopefully he pitches around 150-160 innings, and an ERA in mid 4.00s. He will probably give up a hit per inning, but not many will come in the form of a home run.

MIKE FIERS

And yes, it is pronounced FIRES.

Pitching fourth in the rotation will be an innings eater that was just signed to a one year contract worth $6.0 million, and that is former Astro and Brewer Mike Fiers. He has been inconsistent throughout his career and was even left off of the Astros 2017 postseason run.

However, he is a consumate professional and will always be there to pitch for his team. He was signed to provide some innings and save the young Tigers bullpen. 2017 was rough for him as he pitched to an ERA of 5.22, and ERA+ of 76, and a FIP of 5.43; but if you just look back to 2015 he had an ERA+ of 107 and of 178 the season prior in 2014.

He has usually been very wild with a career 2.9 BB/9. In 2016 he had a 1.358 WHIP and in 2017 a 1.428 WHIP. His career H/9 is a very high 8.8, but his HR/9 is not too bad at 1.4. However, he also has 8.5 K/9 in his career and a career FIP of 4.25 which is respectable for a back end starting pitcher.

Fiers also has a no-hitter under his belt from 2015 and knowing how to pitch in either league is never a bad thing. Also in 2015, Fiers pitched an immaculate inning, becoming only the 73rd player to do so. An immaculate inning is when a pitcher strikes out the side on just 9 pitches.

All the Tigers can really hope to get out of him is a 160-170 inning season of 4.50 ball from Fiers in 2018.

DANIEL NORRIS

The final spot in the rotation will go to Daniel Norris. You might be thinking Norris should be higher up the rotation and I can understand that, he has the stuff to be an all-star caliber player. However, he has been injured every year he has been in a Detroit Tigers uniform and he has been in a Detroit Tigers uniform since halfway through the 2015 season. He has also dealt with inconsistency, like Boyd, but Boyd has stayed healthy for the most part.

Norris has a fastball that can reach 96mph, but when your results are a1.613 WHIP and 10.6 H/9, like he did in 2017,  that fastball looks like a beach ball. He does have decent strikeout numbers and even one career homerun from Wrigley Field, which was amazing.

Like I said before, he has the stuff to be a frontline starter and all-star. He needs to stay healthy however. Staying healthy is easier said than done and some people just get injured much more easily. I am hoping that Daniel Norris is not on a Mark Prior route, as in they have the stuff to be a great pitcher, but injuries will ultimately ruin their promising career.

One BIG thing to remember with Daniel Norris though is that he will not even be 25 until late April of 2018. He still has a lot of time to get healthier and become an annual All-Star and possible Cy Young contender.

More than likely he will suffer another injury, hopefully not serious, but ultimately pitching around 120 innings. An ERA of around 3.90, limiting his walks to under 3.0 per nine innings, and if he can get close to his 9.2 K/9 he had in 2016; he will have a very solid season.

Next: Predicting the 2018 Bullpen

The 2018 Detroit Tigers rotation is not going to be great but it CAN be solid if everyone stays healthy and limits home runs. That might be asking a lot though.

The Tigers are in a rebuilding phase. We will hopefully see some young great players. The Tigers have a young ace already in the rotation, another possible ace in Norris if he stays healthy. Boyd can be a solid number three if he pitches like he did in September of 2017. Those three can be a part of the next great Tigers rotation, with Norris under control for four more seasons and Fulmer and Boyd five more.

We still must support our home team. They will not be good in 2018, but this is for a better future.  Go Tigers!