Detroit Tigers: Best/Worst Case Scenarios for 2018

If the Detroit Tigers exceed expectations could they make a run at a wild-card bid?

This scenario isn’t as unlikely as it seems. The Detroit Tigers would have to exceed expectations for next season. FanGraphs projects the 2018 Detroit Tigers to go 72-90 next season, which is 8 games better than last season. It’s a significant number below what the team would need to win just to have a wildcard bid next season.

In all likelihood, a wild card bid would require 85+ wins, as the Twins were the #5 team in the AL playoffs last year at 85 wins. The Detroit Tigers only posted 64 wins last season, but they could exceed that in 2018 if the cards fall the right way.

Assuming the 2018 Detroit Tigers find a way to scrape together a wild-card bid, it would be a season beyond all expectations. No one expects the Tigers to make the playoffs next season. Not when they’re rebuilding, have sent off most of their veterans, and only posted 64 wins in the season before.

The 2017 Milwaukee Brewers are a case in point of performing above expectations. Despite not making the playoffs last season, there was a point late in the season when it seemed like a rebuilding team was serious contenders to make a wildcard bid. Something that bodes optimism for the 2018 Detroit Tigers.

There is, of course, brings up a worst case scenario for the 2018 Detroit Tigers. Posting 100+ losses.

The Detroit Tigers posted 98 losses last season, could it get worse from there?

The Astros posted 100+ loss seasons from 2012-2013, and it seems like the Detroit Tigers aren’t in that bad of dire straits to be worried about consecutive 100+ loss seasons.  2003 was just horrid for the team, and that’s the worst it’s ever been in franchise history.

Things aren’t likely to be that bad, but they could be 100 loss bad. The team went 64-98 last season, two losses shy of posting 100 losses. So posting at least 100 losses isn’t too far out of the realm of possibility. The Detroit Tigers have shipped away veterans like Justin Verlander and Ian Kinsler, veterans who were core to the 64 wins the team got last year.

As we mentioned earlier FanGraphs projects the 2018 Detroit Tigers to post 72-90 record, just 10 losses shy of 100. Of course, projections aren’t perfect but this is a good indicator of how the team will fare next season and is another determinate of being doubtful the team will actually lose 100+ games.

Even if they win just 65-74 wins, that gives the team wiggle room, and away from the dreaded 100 loss mark.

This of course ties into the next best case scenario: The 2018 Detroit Tigers continue their rebuild.

The Detroit Tigers are rebuilding in 2018 and the best thing that they can do is continue to move forward.

The Detroit Tigers have already started rebuilding the franchise, trading away veteran players for prospects to stockpile a depleted farm system. This scenario seems like the one that is most likely to happen. The Detroit Tigers will post wins in the 65-75 win range, acquire some more prospects and work towards the goal of being World Series contenders.

General Manager Al Avila has already stated that there’s no long-term future for shortstop Jose Iglesias, but what kind of return can he haul? Only time will tell the answer to that, but the Detroit Tigers still have veterans on their roster they can ship away for prospects.

As I stated above, I think this is the most likely scenario to happen. I don’t see the team making a wildcard berth this season. I also don’t see them losing at least 100 games. Somewhere in the middle seems sensible enough as they continue to rebuild.  I actually wouldn’t’ be surprised with a 75-win season this year and then an 85+ win season in 2019 (it’s possible I’m being too optimistic).

Finally, we have one last worst case scenario to look at. The Tigers being wildcard contenders and try to make a playoff run.

If the Detroit Tigers are doing well towards the trade deadline, they make a push for a playoff run.

I think this is the least likely of all the scenarios and by far the worst of the worst for Detroit Tigers fans. As the 2018 trade deadline ends, if the Detroit Tigers find themselves in playoff contention, it would seem that the worst thing they could do is try to make a deep run.

In the midst of a rebuild, an openly admitted one, the last thing you want to do is deplete a farm system that is building to acquire veterans to try and make a run. Especially, when you probably won’t win the World Series.

That scenario would set the rebuild back to square one-something the Detroit Tigers don’t want to do.  If the Detroit Tigers find themselves looking at a wild-card berth, the best thing they’ll want to do is see how it plays out.

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That’s exactly what the Milwaukee Brewers did last season when they found themselves having a surprise 2017. Late in the season, it looked like they might win the NL Central and make a playoff berth as a wildcard. That ultimately didn’t happen, but the Brewers didn’t try to make that run-rather they just let things play out and ultimately didn’t make the playoffs.