Detroit Tigers: Predicting an Alex Wilson Trade
Alex Wilson was one of the Detroit Tigers most reliable relievers in 2015 and 2016. While 2017 was a down year for him, he still provided some solid relief innings. With two years of team control left, he will be a hot trade commodity in the coming months.
Alex Wilson was acquired from the Boston Red Sox in December 2014 alongside all-star Yoenis Cespedes and minor leaguer Gabe Speier. He was part of the trade that sent future Cy Young winner Rick Porcello to the Red Sox. While Porcello won a Cy Young award in 2016, his other two seasons in Boston have been horrible. The Detroit Tigers clearly won this trade. Alex Wilson has been a very solid reliever. While Cespedes only spent half a season in Detroit, won a Gold Glove that year and was traded to the New York Mets. This trade sent Luis Cessa and Chad Green to the New York Yankees for Justin Wilson and current ace Michael Fulmer. Gabe Speier was later flipped with Ian Krol to Atlanta for Cameron Maybin.
Alex Wilson’s stats are an important key to predicting any trade he might be involved in.
Wilson has posted stats that support the argument he is a reliable and solid relief pitcher.
While Wilson has never been known as a strikeout pitcher, posting a career K/9 rate of 5.9. He does have limited walks with a career BB/9 of 2.3 and he has been able to pitch in every situation. He has started a game, he has four career saves, and has pitched everywhere in between. In 231 career games, he has pitched 259.0 innings showing you that he has logged plenty of innings pitched.
In 2015 he pitched 70 innings and had a FIP of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.029 while pitching an ERA of 2.19. In 2016 Wilson pitched 73 innings with a solid FIP of 3.60, ERA+ of 144, and an ERA of 2.96. 2017 was a rough year for him, but he still posted solid numbers. Wilson’s ERA was 4.50 and he pitched 60 innings. His ERA+ was still a solid 102 and a FIP of 4.17, and while his H/9 was high at over 10, his BB/9 was only 2.3 and he only surrendered 1.1 HR/9.
Alex Wilson still has two years of team control left at the time of this post. The free agency this off-season lacked a surplus of reliable relief pitching, something that Wilson can provide. Along with his solid numbers, two years of team control, and ability to pitch anywhere he will be a hot commodity come the trade deadline, if he is not traded prior.
The Detroit Tigers are rebuilding but what could they get for Alex Wilson.
You could probably throw out a few teams that would be interested in of right now. In a few months, however, that number could shoot up to 29. Teams, even ones out of contention, will always want a controllable reliever. So there really is not a right or wrong list of interested or disinterested parties for relievers.
What would the Detroit Tigers be able to get for Alex Wilson? The Tigers probably will not a Justin Wilson type package, but it shouldn’t be too far off. There will be no top 100 players like Jeimer Candelario, however, acquiring two top 30 prospects is a likely scenario. With a trade to a decent farm system, probably a lower top 15 prospect and a mid-twenties prospect. With a trade to a poor farm system, probably a top ten, but not top 5, and a prospect ranked in the high teens.
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However, teams have been known to overpay for relievers in recent years, see Justin Wilson. With bullpens becoming such an important assets in today’s game a reliever that can pitch anywhere in a game is arguably the most valuable pitcher on a team.
With Alex Wilson traded, and possibly even Shane Greene, the Detroit Tigers bullpen gets much worse. However, sometimes it has to get worse to get better.