Analyzing the last ten Detroit Tigers drafts

The Detroit Tigers are in rebuilding mode, and with that comes an increased focus on the draft. Let’s take a look at Detroit’s draft successes (and failures) from the last ten years.

The Detroit Tigers have one surefire way to ensure that this rebuild goes well: draft well. the Houston Astros won the World Series last year after languishing in the cellar for many years. The primary reason they were able to escape was using high draft picks on players like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel. They made mistakes as well, taking Mark Appel and Brady Aiken, neither of whom has panned out.

The Tigers have made, and will make, their fair share of mistakes in the draft. However, if they are able to use the next few years to acquire high quality talent in the early rounds of the draft, their ascension back to the top of the AL Central and into the World Series will be quick.

With the exception of Justin Verlander, who was taken second overall in 2004, the Tigers have not had a ton of success this century in the draft. It is too early to tell on some of their recent selections, although early returns on Beau Burrows, Alex Faedo and Matt Manning are very positive.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at the last ten MLB drafts for the Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers used their first pick in 2007 on high school right-hander Rick Porcello. Porcello ascended rapidly through the minor leagues, making the opening day starting rotation in 2009 as a 20-year-old. He went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA, finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting.

From 2010-2013, Porcello was a slightly below average, yet durable, starter for the Tigers. He went 47-41 with a 4.64 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and a 90 ERA+. His low 5.6 K/9 and high 10.4 H/9 kept him from being anything more than a back-end starter.

2014 was Porcello’s most successful year in the Motor City. He posted the lowest walk-rate, hit-rate and WHIP of his career up to that point. That led to a tidy 3.43 ERA. He also had a league leading three shutouts, to date the only three of his career.

Porcello was flipped after the season to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for superstar slugger Yoenis Cespedes and reliever Alex Wilson.

He struggled his first year in Boston, but more than made up for it by winning the Cy Young award in 2016 with a 22-4 record and a 3.15 ERA. Although his win was controversial (many felt Justin Verlander deserved the award) there is no doubt that Porcello was a successful first round pick by the Tigers.

The rest of the 2007 draft was underwhelming, with Danny Worth, Luke Putkonen, Charlie Furbush and Casey Crosby all playing sparingly in the major leagues.

Colorado Rockies second baseman DJ LeMahieu was drafted by the Tigers in the 41st round out of high school, but did not sign.

The Tigers used their first round pick in 2008 on a hard throwing college right-hander Ryan Perry.

Perry spent less than 30 innings in the minor leagues before making his big league debut with the Tigers in 2009. He threw 61.2 innings of 3.79 ball with a 8.8 K/9 and a 5.5 BB/9.

Perry dropped his walk rate and his strikeout rate considerably in 2010, posting a 3.59 ERA in 62.2 innings as a middle reliever in Detroit’s bullpen.

An injury riddled 2011 season saw Perry post an ugly 5.8 K/9 with an even uglier 5.1 BB/9. His 5.35 ERA and 1.62 WHIP were bad as well, and at the end of the season the Tigers shipped Perry to the Washington Nationals for reliever Collin Balester.

Perry threw eight innings with the Nationals in 2012, and never reached the big leagues again.

Although Perry was a bust, the 2008 draft was not a complete loss for the Tigers. They snagged All-Star catcher Alex Avila in the fifth round and left fielder Andy Dirks in the eighth round.

Avila posted a 105 OPS+ and hit 77 home runs in his Tigers career, which ended with him getting traded at the 2017 trade deadline along with Justin Wilson for third baseman Jeimer Candelario and prospect Isaac Paredes.

Dirks spent three years in Detroit, hitting .276 with a 101 OPS+. Injuries unfortunately cut his career short however, and he was out of baseball by age 28.

2009 may have been Detroit’s least successful draft of the last decade. They used their first round pick on high school right-hander Jacob Turner. Turner posted great numbers in the low minors. He was the number 15 prospect in all of baseball in 2010, according to MLB.com.

Turner made his big league debut in 2011. He made three starts and posted an 8.53 ERA. At the 2012 trade deadline Turner was involved in one of Detroit’s best deadline trades in team history. Turner, along with Rob Brantly and Brian Flynn, was sent to Miami in exchange for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez went on to win an ERA title in Detroit while Infante was a solid starter at second for multiple years.

Turner never panned out, having one successful season in 2013 in Miami’s rotation. He spent last season in the bullpen for the Washington Nationals, pitching to a 5.08 ERA in 39 innings.

Detroit’s second round pick was left-hander Andy Oliver out of Oklahoma State University. Oliver made seven starts between 2010-2011, pitching to a 7.11 ERA with a 1.83 WHIP and a 23/21 K/BB ratio. Oliver is still pitching in the minors, but has not been back to the big leagues.

Sixth rounder Daniel Fields, 11th rounder Adam Wilk and 21st rounder Giovanni Soto all played sparingly in the big leagues, but that was it from the Tigers 2009 draft class.

The 2010 draft saw the selection of one of Detroit’s best remaining players in slugger Nicholas Castellanos.

Castellanos made his big league debut in 2013 and has been a mainstay in Detroit’s lineup since 2014, when he finished eighth in Rookie of the Year voting. He originally came up as a third baseman before being shifted over to left field. He then shifted back to third base at the big league level until last season, when he was moved to right field to make room for rookie Jeimer Candelario.

Defensively, Castellanos has struggled at each new position. He is the right fielder now and is embracing his new role on the team. While it may take a while for him to even post average defensive numbers, his offense more than makes up for it.

Castellanos has steadily improved his offensive game, blasting a career-high 26 home runs, 36 doubles and a league-leading 10 triples in 2017.

While trade rumors have been prevalent this offseason, it seems Castellanos is content being the future leader of the Detroit Tigers. Certainly a first round pick that a team can be proud of.

In addition to Castellanos, the Tigers snagged left-hander Drew Smyly in the second round. Smyly went 16-12 with a 3.53 ERA and a 116 ERA+ with the Tigers. He was traded in the summer blockbuster that netted the Tigers David Price.

Chance Ruffin, Rob Brantly, Bryan Holaday and Kyle Ryan also came from a rather impressive 2010 draft.

The Tigers did not have a first round pick in 2011 draft, but they used their second round pick to draft catcher James McCann out of the University of Arkansas.

McCann made his big league debut in 2014 and became a regular in 2015. He had his strongest professional season in 2017, hitting .253 with a career-high 13 home runs, 49 RBI and a 92 OPS+.

Lauded mostly for his defense, McCann has gradually improved his offensive profile as well. He has split time behind the plate with both Alex Avila and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but will have a chance to be the primary catcher in 2018.

McCann, like Castellanos, looks to be a part of Detroit’s future for the next couple years. Detroit has two strong catching prospects in Grayson Greiner and Jake Rogers. Either could eventually unseat McCann behind the dish.

The rest of the 2011 draft has been underwhelming up to this point, with tenth round pick Curt Casali being the best big leaguer besides McCann. The Tigers traded Casali to the Rays in 2013. He has hit .199 in 161 big league games.

It’s too early to tell how the last couple of drafts will turn out, although the Tigers have seen a lot of their recent picks get high praise from scouts.

2013

The first round pick in 2013 by the Tigers was right-hander Jonathon Crawford. Crawford went 8-3 with a 2.85 ERA in 2014 with Single-A West Michigan, before getting traded to the Cincinnati Reds along with Eugenio Suarez for Alfredo Simon. Crawford has struggled mightily in Cincinnati. He went 0-10 with a 5.65 ERA at High-A ball last year. He struck out 44 and walked 79. It likely won’t be long until he is out of baseball for good.

Second round pick Corey Knebel had a phenomenal season in Milwaukee’s bullpen last year. Fifth round pick Buck Farmer and 11th round pick Chad Green have spent some time in the major leagues as well.

2014

2014 first rounder Derek Hill has disappointed in his minor league career thus far, only hitting .246 and barely reaching High-A. However, he’s only 21 and still has blazing speed, having swiped 100 bags in his career.

Third rounder Grayson Greiner, eighth rounder Artie Lewicki, tenth rounder Paul Voelker and fifteenth rounder Mike Gerber all figure to see the major leagues in the next year or two. Voelker was recently named one of our four “under the radar” prospects to pay attention to.

2015

Beau Burrows is considered one of Detroit’s top prospects, and many scouts feel he will be a dynamic starting pitcher in the major leagues. In fact, MLB pipeline named him the 85th best prospect in the MLB, one of four Tiger pitchers on the list.

Second rounder Christin Stewart is a power-hitting prospect that has struggled defensively, but figures to make his big league debut next season. Cam Gibson, son of MLB legend Kirk Gibson, was taken in the fifth round as well.

2016

Matt Manning checked in at number 61 on MLB pipeline’s list. The first rounder from 2016 is still just 19 years old and has the potential to be a frontline starter in the major leagues.

Second rounder Kyle Funkhouser is another right-handed pitching prospect that the Tigers are really high on.

2017

You can read about Alex Faedo’s dominant performance in the College World Series here. There is a reason he checked in as the number 66 prospect despite never having thrown a professional pitch. The kid has explosive stuff and is one of the most exciting prospects in a rapidly improving Tigers farm system.

Next: Prospect Report - Alex Faedo

The Tigers, like most teams, have had mixed results atop the draft. Not every player the Tigers take will become a superstar. But, if they can get a healthy mix of talent from the draft in the next few years it will expedite their rebuild and bring the team back into contention.