Detroit Tigers: An unscientific way to predict 2018 performance

The Detroit Tigers have a lot of question marks heading into 2018. Here is a unique way to look at projected performance for Detroit’s young team.

Detroit Tigers fans are beginning to come to terms with the rebuilding process taking place in the Motor City. While having less major league talent is a tough pill to swallow, fans will get to enjoy watching young prospects grow and develop at the big league level. With established players, it is usually somewhat predictable how they will perform year in and year out. Rookies and prospects, however, are a different story.

There are hundreds of different projection systems out there that use advanced stats to try and predict future performance. PECOTA, Steamer, ZIPS and Depth Charts are just a handful of the ways for fans to gauge how successful their team or their favorite player will be in 2018.

Here at Motor City Bengals, we decided to use a completely different ‘system’ to measure potential performance by our Tigers in 2018.

Baseball-reference.com has a program called “Similarity Scores” which was originally thought up by baseball statistics guru Bill James in the mid-1980’s. You can read more here.

For active players who have accrued a certain number of at-bats, the program will crunch the numbers and create a list of the ten players who have had the most similar career through a certain age.

So for example, on Justin Verlander‘s baseball-reference page his similarity score says “similar pitchers through age 34”. His list includes Dwight Gooden, Mike Mussina, Bob Welch and John Smoltz. The purpose of this exercise is to pick the closest comparison and look at how they did the next season. So in this case, we would look at how Dwight Gooden did at age 35, to make a guess at how Verlander will do at the same age

It goes without saying that this is not a very reliable projection module. Injuries, teammates, park factors, even the era of baseball all factor heavily into this. This exercise should be taken more as a fun comparison tool, as opposed to a reliable prediction for our 2018 Tigers.

Let’s take a look at what this comparison tool thinks of our 2018 Detroit Tigers.

First up for the Tigers are the catchers. John Hicks has not been around long enough, so instead we will compare numbers for veteran minor league signees Brayan Pena and Derek Norris. First up, however, is the starter.

James McCann: 2017 Travis d’Arnaud

Although d’Arnaud was a highly touted prospect and McCann was a lesser known commodity, their careers have looked rather similar up to this point. Injuries have played a much bigger part in d’Arnaud’s career up to this point, with McCann managing to stay relatively injury free. In 2017, the 28-year-old d’Arnaud slashed .244/.293/.443 with 16 home runs and 57 RBI. The Tigers would like  more from McCann in the BA/OBP department, but 16 home runs seems about right for the McCannon. d’Arnaud only saw 376 plate appearances however, so if McCann remains healthy he has a solid chance at 20 home runs next season.

Brayan Pena: 1891 Jim Keenan

Apparently Pena’s 12-year-career has most closely resembled a player who played over 125 years ago. Baseball is fun isn’t it? Keenan’s final season in the show was in 1891, when he slashed .202/.302/.317 with four home runs, and five triples. While five triples does not seem remotely likely, a low average and a handful of home runs is about all you could expect out of Pena, if he were to serve as the backup catcher.

Derek Norris: 2010 John Buck

Norris’ career up to this point has been so unconventional that his comparisons are even less reliable than others. Few players have already peaked and cratered by age 28 like Norris has. Case in point is his comparison, the 2010 version of John Buck. 2010 was Buck’s finest big league season, as the veteran catcher blasted 20 home runs with a .281 average, making his only career All-Star game. Norris has already made his one career ASG, and seems very unlikely to do much, if anything, with the stick in Detroit.

Dixon Machado and Jeimer Candelario are expected to start at second base and third base, respectively, next season. However, neither of them have been around long enough to have registered any comparisons, so they will not be a part of this exercise. In this place I’ll use the two veterans who are competing for the utility infield role, Pete Kozma and Alexi Amarista. Only one of them will likely make the team, however.

First up is a player who has been around plenty, Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera.

Miguel Cabrera: 2015 Albert Pujols

As one might expect, the more statistics a player has racked up the more challenging it is to find similar player comparisons. However, Cabrera has shown a lot of similarities through age 34 to superstar slugger Albert Pujols, now of the Los Angeles Angels. Pujols’ career has taken a much publicized downturn in his later years, something many fans are afraid may happen to Cabrera. While that still could be the case, it is worth noting that Pujols had a strong season in 2015, blasting 40 home runs and posting a 118 OPS+. He made his tenth All-Star game and finished with 95 RBI. Tiger fans would be thrilled with 40 home runs from Cabrera next season. It would mean he surpassed the 500 home run plateau, which he is currently 38 home runs shy of.

Jose Iglesias: 1998 Kevin Stocker

This comparison is actually quite spooky, as Iglesias and Stocker both have a very similar set of skills. Stocker was a glove first shortstop who got off to a very hot start offensively, before seeing his hitting steadily decline over time. Still, he remained a starting shortstop even through his decline because of solid work with the glove. Sound familiar? Fans can hope Iggy’s fate is not the same as Stocker’s, who was out of the game by age 30. He hit .208/.282/.313 with six home runs and five stolen bases in 1998. Iglesias hopefully will show more than that next season.

Alexi Amarista: 1994 Mark McLemore

This comparison is a good example of why this exercise should be taken with a grain of salt. At age 29, Amarista and McLemore’s careers happened to intersect at a similar place. Each of them, however, were on very different paths. McLemore would go on to play 10 more years, with his best seasons long ahead of him. Amarista looks to be nearing the end of the line, already resorting to minor league contracts with rebuilding teams. It is certainly possible Amarista will make a comeback and play decent ball, but accruing nearly 5,000 more plate appearances (like McLemore did) seems unlikely.

McLemore hit .257 with 20 stolen bases in 343 at-bats in 1994, numbers that Amarista will not reach unless injuries affect Detroit’s other starters.

Pete Kozma: 2012 Omar Quintanilla

Quintanilla was a first round draft pick in 2003 who made his big league debut just two short years later with the Rockies. His career never really got off the ground however, and he has only received more than 100 at-bats in four big league seasons. One of those was 2012, when he hit .243 with four home runs in 169 at-bats. Kozma’s career has seen a somewhat similar path, and he does not seem likely to see many at-bats in the Motor City.

Victor Martinez: 2004 BJ Surhoff

Martinez’s closest comparison through age 38 is actually veteran second baseman Chase Utley, who just completed his age 38 season. Since we have not seen Utley’s age 39 season yet, we move on down the list. In one of the more telling comparisons, the next six players all retired before their age 39 season. While V-Mart is unlikely to walk away from the $18 million dollars he is guaranteed next season, he also seems unlikely to replicate what his closest comparison did at age 39, former catcher/outfielder B.J. Surhoff. Surhoff hit .309/.365/.420 with eight home runs and 50 RBI in 343 at-bats in 2004. While V-Mart likely won’t hit .309 next season, if he stays healthy he should see double-digit home runs.

Hopefully, he can achieve the 13 necessary to reach 250 home runs for his career before he hangs them up for good.

The projected starting outfield of Mikie Mahtook, Leonys Martin and Nicholas Castellanos are all represented here. Potential backups Victor Reyes and JaCoby Jones do not have enough big league experience to generate comparisons. Let’s start in left.

Mikie Mahtook: 1996 Matt Mieske

Mieske was a late bloomer who had the best season of his career in 1996 at age 28. The Western Michigan Alumnus hit .274 with 14 home runs and 64 RBI in a career-high 374 at-bats. Tigers fans will hope that Mahtook is ready for his breakout in 2018. The outfielder hit .276 with 12 home runs last season. He will look to build upon that and have a season that trumps Mieske’s effort in 1996.

Leonys Martin: 2017 Peter Bourjos

Martin and Bourjos made their big league debuts less than a year apart and at this point in their careers have very similar numbers. The way they have approached those numbers, however, has been quite different. Bourjos has consistently been a fourth outfielder, only accruing over 450 at-bats in one season, back in 2011. However, he has remained healthy and has seen at least 168 at-bats every season he has been in the big leagues. Martin has eclipsed the 450 at-bat mark three times. However, he only has one other season with more than Bourjos’ career-low 168 at-bats.

Still, the numbers remain similar. Bourjos hit .223 with five home runs and five stolen bases last season, numbers that Martin should surpass, provided he does not lose the center field job to JaCoby Jones or Victor Reyes.

Nicholas Castellanos: 1952 Willie Jones

Jones, like Castellanos, was just starting to hit his peak heading into the 1952 season. He was coming off two straight All-Star seasons and had surpassed 20 home runs and 80 RBI each year. Jones dipped slightly in his age-26 season, hitting .250 with 18 home runs and a 96 OPS+. Castellanos will hope to avoid a dip in performance next season. Coming off the finest year of his career, next season could be the year we see Castellanos become a bonafide star, far surpassing the numbers that Jones put up.

Buck Farmer: 2004 Dave Borkowski

The Tigers have had a hard time deciding what to do with Farmer. He has appeared in 43 games with Detroit, 19 of them as a starter and the other 24 out of the pen. The results haven’t been good either way, and his days may be numbered. The same was true for Dave Borkowski in 2004, who had not appeared in a big league game in two years. He appeared in 17 games (eight starts) and pitched to a 5.14 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP. Here’s to hoping Farmer is better, but this seems like a realistic projection.

Shane Greene: 1997 Curt Leskanic

Greene’s career trajectory from starter to reliever to closer is a rare one, which confused the age comparison chart. The result ended up being Curt Leskanic, who is one of the few who fits Greene’s profile. Leskanic started 11 games combined in his first two big league seasons, before transitioning to the bullpen and even saving 10 games in 1995. Unfortunately, if Greene truly follows in Leskanic’s footsteps than next season may not be pretty. Leskanic put up a 5.55 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 58.1 innings in 1997, his age 29 season. He went on to have a pretty solid career as a reliever, which seems likely for Greene.

Tigers fans will hope that Greene doesn’t have as ugly of a season next year as Leskanic did.

Alex Wilson: 2012 Pat Neshek

Neshek’s career got off to a hot start before he went through a multi-year rough patch. He emerged stronger than ever and just made his second All-Star team in 2017, at age 36. Alex Wilson may just be beginning his rough patch after a career-worst 2017 season. Neshek only threw 19.2 innings in his age 31 season, with a 1.37 ERA. Hopefully Wilson is able to log more time on the mound next season, whether as a starter or a reliever.

Blaine Hardy: 2008 George Sherrill

Sherrill was a late bloomer, not making the big leagues until age 27 and having his two best seasons in 2007 and 2009, at ages 30 and 32. His age 31 season was sandwiched in between in 2008. Despite making his only All-Star game appearance, he pitched to an ugly 4.70 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Hardy also debuted at age 27 and although he has had some good seasons already, could definitely fit the bill as a late bloomer. Let’s hope next season Hardy somehow finds himself in an All-Star game.

Travis Wood: 1999 Kent Mercker

Wood was almost exclusively a starter through 2014. He transitioned to the bullpen after that, where he has resided the last few years. Mercker’s career was the exact opposite, starting out as a reliever before actually transitioning into the starting rotation. This transition is much more rare, and is one fellow Tiger Alex Wilson is hoping to make. In 1999 Mercker started 23 games and pitched to a 4.80 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. Wood seems much more likely to make the Tigers as a reliever rather than a starter. His 6.80 ERA from last season is not encouraging, but Wood has had a lot of success working with pitching coach Chris Bosio, so there is a good chance for him to rebound in the Motor City. Certainly, he is capable of doing more than Mercker did at age 31.

Next: Analyzing the last 10 Tigers drafts

This projection system should be used more for entertainment than actual predictions for our Tigers in 2018. Still, it can be fun to see how similar players in baseball’s history have fared at roughly the same age.

The Tigers will hope to get strong bounceback performances from many of their veterans next season. Their younger players will continue to develop, pushing for a contention window in the not-too-distant future. Regardless, it will surely be a season with plenty of ups and downs.