Detroit Tigers: Five Milestones to watch out for in 2018

Miguel Cabrera: 500 Home Runs (38 shy)

Miguel Cabrera currently sits at 462 career home runs, leaving him 38 home runs short of the magic number 500. Cabrera has hit 38 or more home runs four times in his big league career: 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2016. While it’s a stretch to assume he will reach the 38 home run mark in 2018, it is by no means impossible.

Cabrera would become the 28th member of the 500 home run club and the tenth first baseman. Cabrera would become the first player who has spent the majority of his career in Detroit in the club. Gary Sheffield and Eddie Mathews are both members, but each only spent a small portion of their career in the Motor City.

Miggy is coming off one of the worst seasons of his big league career, only hitting .249 with 16 home runs last season. While a bounce-back is all but certain for the 34-year-old, 38 home runs does seem a bit far-fetched. Most projection systems have him around 22-25 home runs next season. 30 certainly isn’t out of the question, but 38 would be a tall order.

Expect Miggy to hit his 500th home run sometime early in the 2019 season.

However, if he is on a power surge this year, make sure you grab tickets in left field for September home games, as Cabrera’s 500th home run is something you won’t want to miss.

Victor Martinez: 250 Home Runs (13 shy)

While certainly not as memorable as 500, Martinez is just 13 home runs shy of 250 home runs for his career. For a guy who has been primarily a catcher (although not lately) 250 home runs is a big accomplishment.

Martinez has played 858 games at catcher in his career, compared to 746 as a DH. Unless he eclipses 112 games at DH this season, Martinez will likely go down as a catcher in the record books. If he is able to hit 13 or more home runs this season, he will become just the 12th catcher to do so.

Martinez has hit more than 13 home runs in nine of his 15 big league seasons, although he’s only done it three times in his six years in Detroit.

Still, a bounce-back from V-Mart seems plausible heading into his age-39 season. While Martinez only hit 10 home runs last year, his hard-hit rate was actually higher than it was in 2016, when he hit 27 round-trippers. His problem was his launch angle, as he saw his fly-ball rate drop to 34.2% in 2017.

If V-Mart can continue to hit the ball hard while increasing his fly ball percentage, there is no reason he can’t easily eclipse 13 home runs and reach the 250 mark. Expect it to happen near the end of the season however, as the Tigers will surely give their veteran’s frequent rest during this rebuilding season.

Jordan Zimmermann: 100 Wins (13 shy)

After seven seasons with the Washington Nationals, Zimmermann signed with the Tigers boasting an excellent 70-50 W-L record. Unfortunately, he has only posted a 17-20 record in the Motor City, with an ugly 5.60 ERA and 1.47 WHIP across 47 starts.

That leaves Zimmermann with 87 wins, just 13 away from reaching 100 for his career. Named Detroit’s opening day starter, Zimmermann will remain in the starting rotation as long as he is healthy.

That should net him around 25-30 starts, plenty of opportunities to earn 13 wins. Zimmermann will need to help himself however. His 6.08 ERA from 2017 is unlikely to get him anywhere near 13 victories.

Zimmermann’s rapid decline in Detroit primarily stems from a decrease in his fastball velocity, which dipped to 92.5 miles per hour when he first arrived in the Motor City. That allowed hitters to post a ridiculous .944 OPS on the heater in 2016.

2017 saw Zimmermann’s fastball remain roughly 92 miles per hour, but his curveball’s success plummeted as well, leaving Zimmermann with virtually nothing left in the tank. The result was an epically bad 6.08 ERA and 29 home runs surrendered.

For Zimm to reach 13 wins, he will need to find some of the velocity he had earlier in his career and get his breaking pitches back to where they once were. His 4.15 ERA in spring training is an improvement,  but he’s surrendered three home runs in just 13 innings, which is not a good sign.

Fans can hope Zimmermann’s 100th victory comes at the tail end of the 2018 season, but a rebuilding team and a pitcher who has been going backward for two seasons is not a recipe for success.

Shane Greene: Detroit’s All-Time Saves list

Currently, Shane Greene ranks 46th all-time in Detroit history with 11 saves. For basically every save he racks up this season, he will move up the list.

The writers at Valley of the Suns, the FanSided page for the Phoenix Suns, have been tracking Devin Booker’s place on the NBA’s all-time scoring list after each game. While he is still outside the top-900 scorers in NBA history, it’s a fun way for the team to track his progress. Tracking Greene’s ascent up Detroit’s all-time saves list is a much easier, but still entertaining endeavor.

If Greene is able to lock in just 20 saves this season, his 31 career saves will rank him 18th in franchise history, just ahead of Ugueth Urbina. 25 would tie him with Joe Nathan for 14th all-time.

35 saves on the season would give Greene sole possession of 10th place on Detroit’s saves list, just behind Francisco Rodriguez.

Greene, 29, had nine saves last season after taking over the closer’s role from Justin Wilson following his trade to the Chicago Cubs. He is expected to be the team’s primary closer in 2018. That is, unless he gets traded.

Greene remains a candidate to get shipped away at the trade deadline, especially if he has a strong first half. The Tigers would love to acquire more prospects at the trade deadline. Well performing relievers have recently brought back very nice prospect hauls. Last year’s Justin Wilson trade netted the Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario and infield prospect Isaac Paredes. The Tigers would love to move Greene for a similar package, if at all possible.

Look for Greene to move up Detroit’s all-time save list. How far he climbs is dependent on his trade value come July.

Miguel Cabrera and Detroit’s record books

Miggy’s name is already littered all over Detroit’s record books. A healthy 2018 season should move him up in nearly every offensive category. Here is a look at the climbs that Miggy could (and should) be making in 2018:

Runs

Cabrera needs 53 runs to pass Norm Cash (1,027) for ninth all-time.

Hits

Cabrera needs 66 hits to pass Bobby Veach (1,859) for eighth all-time.

Total Bases

Cabrera needs 92 total bases to pass Norm Cash (3,233) for eighth all-time, and 301 to pass Alan Trammell (3,442) for seventh.

Doubles

Miggy needs just five doubles to pass Hank Greenberg (366) for eighth all-time. He’d need 41 to pass Sam Crawford for seventh, and 51 to pass Trammell for sixth.

RBI

Miggy would need 111 RBI to pass Hank Greenberg (1200) for sixth all-time.

Walks

Cabrera needs six walks to pass Greenberg and 50 to pass Harry Heilmann for tenth and ninth place, respectively.

Strikeouts

Last but not least, if Miggy strikes out 66 times this season he will move into second place in team history, behind the legendary Brandon Inge.

Next: A unique way to predict 2018 performance

The Tigers will always have something to look forward to in 2018. While the talk will surround the young stars and the prospects, the veterans will be creeping toward some major milestones. Stay tuned.