Detroit Tigers: Exploring Michael Fulmer Trade Scenarios

Tigers Rumors: Rumors the Detroit Tigers could deal star right-hander Michael Fulmer have continued to ramp up. Here are a few realistic trade scenarios.

It’s no secret that Tigers Rumors are going to run rampant this month. Leonys Martin, Mike Fiers, Francisco Liriano and Jose Iglesias all seem likely to be dealt. Less likely, but still possible, are Matthew Boyd, Shane Greene and Blaine Hardy.

However, the big question mark is what the Tigers will do with star right-hander Michael Fulmer. Fulmer is currently 3-7 with a 4.22 ERA. He does have a career-high 7.62 K/9, but also a career-high 2.96 BB/9. He’s had some bad luck, with a 3.97 FIP.

Still, it’s undeniable that Fulmer hasn’t looked like the pitcher Tigers fans know that he can be. That makes trading him a tricky situation. The Tigers likely value Fulmer similarly to how they valued him during the offseason, which was very high. He is under team control through 2022 and cost only $575,200 this season, per spotrac.

The added value that five years of team control adds is huge, and gives the Tigers little incentive to trade him unless they get a truly monstrous return.

The problem is that a contending team likely is not going to offer up the kind of return that Detroit will be demanding – not while Fulmer sports an ERA over 4.00 and a career-high walk rate.

Basically, the Tigers will want the type of return that the Mets will want for Jacob deGrom. But since deGrom is available, any team that is willing to part with huge prospect capital will just go after him.

For those reasons, Fulmer is likely going to remain a Tiger. However, there are a handful of teams who are desperate to improve and might be willing to put together the prospect capital necessary to get the Tigers attention. Here are those teams, along with what it might take to get a deal done:

The Dodgers are the team most connected to Fulmer at this point. While they have a solid farm system, it’s still hard to imagine a deal getting done unless they include star right-hander Walker Buehler, who is currently injured. Buehler is 23 and has a 3.44 ERA in 10 appearances for the Dodgers this season. He boasts a 9.29 K/9 and just a 2.06 BB/9.

It doesn’t make any sense for the Dodgers to deal Buehler for Fulmer, and it doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to deal Fulmer for anything less than Buehler.

If Buehler is off the table, the Tigers would absolutely need LA’s number one prospect, outfielder Alex Verdugo.

Verdugo is 22 and was ranked as the 27th ranked prospect in all of baseball preseason. He has hit .228 in 24 big league games in the last two seasons, but is slashing an absurd .350/.393/.513 at Triple-A. Still, he doesn’t provide a ton of home run or stolen base potential, with 13 as his career-high for each.

Gavin Lux is an interesting second base prospect that we discussed in yesterday’s post, but unless the Tigers can wrestle Buehler and Verdugo, this deal isn’t likely to get done.

For the Dodgers, who are also interested in Manny Machado, they likely won’t part with their top two prospects to acquire Fulmer. If the Tigers accepted any less than that, they would be selling Fulmer short.

Presently, the Phillies are one game behind the Braves for first place in the NL East. They had been discussed as surprise contenders before the season, and that appears to be the case this year. If they wanted to go all-in, they have enough interesting young pieces that they could maybe get a deal done for Fulmer.

Scott Kingery is a middle infield prospect who had 26 home runs and 29 stolen bases last season between Double-A and Triple-A. He is hitting just .224 in the show this year, but he looks like a potential 15/20 HR/SB guy in the future, and can hold his own defensively at second base.

If Kingery were packaged alongside No. 1 prospect Sixto Sanchez and a few other prospects, the Tigers might consider pulling the trigger.

Sanchez checked in as the No. 23 prospect in all of baseball this season. He’s made eight starts at High-A this year, pitching to a 2.51 ERA with an 8.68 K/9 and a 2.12 BB/9. Not bad for a 19-year-old. Sanchez would immediately become Detroit’s No. 1 prospect, and would someday lead a rotation alongside Casey Mize, Alex Faedo, Matt Manning and Beau Burrows.

If the Tigers could pry Kingery, Sanchez and maybe a mid-level prospect from the Phillies, this could work. Spencer Howard is Philadelphia’s No. 19 ranked prospect. He has an 11.3 K/9 in 14 starts with Single-A, and has shown a four-pitch mix that could make him a big league starter. If not, his velocity will play up well in a relief role.

I’d hardly call this trade plausible however, as the Phillies don’t want to move their No. 1 prospect as well as a big league position player for Fulmer, not while he’s struggling. It could work, but I don’t see the Phillies pulling the trigger.

Next: Exploring Matthew Boyd Trade Scenarios

The fact is, a Fulmer trade seems unlikely this season. That’s a good thing, as it means Detroit gets to keep their ace for a while longer. If he has a super strong first half next season, or the season after that, perhaps they’ll consider dealing him then. It gives the team a chance to evaluate what their needs will be to field the most competitive team that they can in 2022 or so.