Detroit Tigers: 3 veteran starting pitchers to target this offseason

Marco Estrada

Estrada, 35, is coming off his worst season as a starter. He currently boasts a 5.75 ERA, with a 5.36 FIP and a 5.44 SIERA. His 6.56 K/9 is the second lowest of his career, and his 3.25 BB/9 is the second highest. It’s safe to say it hasn’t been his year.

However, Estrada was a solid back of the rotation starter prior to that, even posting an All-Star caliber season in 2016. He has long been a fly-ball pitcher, which has not served him well in Milwaukee and Toronto – two notorious fly-ball friendly parks.

Comerica is much different, and while I don’t expect Estrada to suddenly become a stud with the switch, it won’t hurt. CoPa has a HR park factor of 0.847, the 24th lowest in the major leagues. That means the park favors pitchers with regards to home runs, by a fairly substantial margin.

His velocity dip is no doubt a concern, and is likely contributing to his dip in strikeouts. At 35, it’s possible age is catching up with Estrada, who has thrown over 1,200 big league innings. It comes with risk, but if the Tigers are willing to gamble that a change of scenery could squeeze some more value out of the veteran, he could be a nice No. 5 starter for a half season.

There are a fair amount of similarities between Estrada and Mike Fiers, and Fiers ended up having a very solid year in the Motor City. Perhaps Estrada will be Fiers 2.0.

Tyson Ross

Remember Tyson Ross? The right-hander was among the best starters in the game between 2013-2015 with the Padres, compiling a 3.07 ERA (3.13 FIP) with a 9.2 K/9 and a 1.23 WHIP. Then, the injury bug bit hard. Ross only made one start in 2016, and didn’t return to the big leagues until June of 2017, with the Texas Rangers.

Ross was not good with Texas, going 3-3 with a 7.71 ERA and more walks (37) than strikeouts (36). However, he has rebounded respectably in 2018. He began the year back with the Padres, making 22 starts and going 6-9 with a 4.45 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9. He was dealt to the Cardinals, where he has made eight appearances, seven out of the bullpen. He has a 2.31 ERA, although his 3.9 K/9 is concerning.

Ross’ best asset is his age. He is only 31 years old, and won’t turn 32 until the start of the 2019 season. While his injury history makes him a risk, Ross has more upside than most of the veteran starting pitching that will be in Detroit’s price range. I don’t expect the Tigers to spend big money on a veteran starter, and it is possible that Ross gets priced out. Additionally, the veteran may look for a longer term guarantee, which doesn’t make sense for the Tigers.

However, if he is willing to take a one-year deal, there is a great chance he could find success in the Motor City. It is extremely unlikely he returns to his 2013-2015 levels, but if he can post a low-4.00 ERA and a K/9 around 8, he will be a hot commodity at the trade deadline.

Josh Tomlin

Detroit Tigers fans are all too familiar with Tomlin, who has thrown nearly 900 innings with the Indians since 2010. Tomlin has pitched primarily out of the bullpen this season, but started 55 games between 2016-2017. He posted a 4.66 ERA (4.54 FIP) in those two seasons, with a 1.22 WHIP and a 6.5 K/9. He is a control master, only walking 34 batters in those two seasons combined, good for a 1.0 BB/9.

Tomlin was squeezed from Cleveland’s rotation in 2018, and has not had the same level of success in the bullpen. He currently sports a 6.49 ERA (7.62 FIP) with a 5.58 K/9 and a 1.66 BB/9. Obviously those numbers are less than ideal, but Tomlin has the pedigree of a former back of the rotation starter, and a change of scenery and a low pressure role could help him return to those ways in Detroit.

Tomlin has a four-pitch mix, with a four-seam fastball, a cutter, a curveball and a changeup. Tomlin’s curveball is his money pitch, with a career .193 BAA. Tomlin is likely the most affordable of the three options listed, although he is the least likely to recoup trade value at the deadline.

However, if the free agent market blows up, the Tigers should still grab Tomlin to get some extra SP depth. It’s a low-risk, medium-reward endeavor for a team that has little to lose heading into 2019.

The Detroit Tigers are gearing up for what projects to be a fairly lengthy rebuild. Adding veteran starting pitching and flipping them at the deadline for more prospects is a good way to speed that process up. Let’s hope Detroit can do that again next year.