Detroit Tigers: Way-too-early 25-man roster prediction

The Detroit Tigers have a busy offseason ahead of them. Here’s our first projection for the 25-man roster come Opening Day 2019.

The Detroit Tigers started their offseason off with, well not a bang necessarily but a move nonetheless, releasing five players from their 40-man roster. Artie Lewicki was claimed by the Diamondbacks, while Pete Kozma, Louis Coleman and Jim Adduci all elected free agency. Harold Castro accepted his assignment to Triple-A Tacoma.

That move has little ramifications on the expected 25-man roster come Opening day 2019. The team has some glaring holes to fill at shortstop and first base, and could afford to find veteran options on the mound that they can try to trade next July, a la Mike Fiers last season.

With the World Series not even over, it’s far too early to make projections on Detroit’s roster next season. However, we are going to take a stab at it anyway. The team doesn’t project to make many big moves, just a series of small moves to keep the team relatively competitive while they build toward a competition window in 2020 or so.

Here is a position-by-position breakdown of what the 25-man roster could look like next season, starting with the infield:

Catchers: James McCann and John Hicks

I don’t expect major changes behind the dish. McCann is arb eligible with an expected salary around $3.5M. While some think he could be non-tendered, I don’t think the team saw enough from Hicks or Grayson Greiner to be the full-time guy behind the plate.

I think Hicks will play some first base, but will serve primarily as the team’s backup catcher. If he does well or if Greiner looks good in Toledo, McCann could be trade bait for catcher-needy teams.

First Base: Logan Morrison

I profiled Morrison, along with Luis Valbuena and Lucas Duda, as free agent first base options Detroit could go after this offseason. Morrison had an ugly 2018, hitting just .186 with 15 home runs, but he blasted 38 round-trippers in 2017. I think there’s some rebound value here, and Detroit could use another pure left-handed hitter in their lineup. Morrison is a solid fielder as well – and makes an intriguing trade candidate if he can rebound in the first half next season.

Second Base: Niko Goodrum

Goodrum was a revelation for the Tigers last season, coming to the team as a low-key minor league free agent and hitting a tidy .245/.315/.432 with 16 home runs, 12 stolen bases and excellent positional versatility. However, he was at his best at the keystone, and I think he goes into 2019 as Detroit’s starting second baseman.

Shortstop: Jose Iglesias

I don’t think Iggy’s time away from the Tigers will last very long. There are plenty of reasons for Detroit to bring him back, most notably the lack of internal options to replace him and the limited need for a starting shortstop around the league. I think Iggy will end up back in Detroit on a one or two-year deal, serving as a nice stopgap for potential successors in Sergio Alcantara, Willi Castro or even Wenceel Perez.

Third Base: Jeimer Candelario

Candelario cemented himself as Detroit’s starting third baseman of the future, earning 619 plate appearances and hitting 19 home runs with a .224 average. He fell off toward the end of the season, but the Candy Man will be a big part of the Detroit Tigers in 2019.

Utility: Ronny Rodriguez

This position will be a battle between Rodriguez and prospect Dawel Lugo, although Detroit could certainly bring in a veteran like they did last season with Pete Kozma and Alexi Amarista.

However, I think they’ll stick with Rodriguez, as Lugo could use some extra time in Triple-A. Rodriguez did not look good in the big leagues last season, but his positional versatility and strong hitting in Triple-A could make him a solid utility guy next year.

Starter 1: Matthew Boyd

A strong trade candidate after a nice 2018 season, I think the Detroit Tigers will hold onto Boyd for another year, possibly making him available at the trade deadline. On the heels of a career-year, I think Boyd will get the ball on Opening Day.

Starter 2: Michael Fulmer

Fulmer’s trade value has completely tanked at this point, so it makes sense for Detroit to hold onto him and hope he can regain some of the form that made him the 2016 Rookie of the year and an All-Star caliber arm in 2017.

Starter 3: Jordan Zimmermann

Zimmermann and the $50M+ the Tigers still owe him aren’t going anywhere this offseason. Hopefully the right-hander can maintain the solid K/BB ratio he had last year, while limiting some of the home runs so he can return to his old ways. It’s a longshot, but Detroit doesn’t have much choice with his gargantuan contract.

Starter 4: Marco Estrada

I think the Tigers will once again turn to the free agent market to pick up cheap veteran starting pitching, and Estrada reminds me a lot of the Mike Fiers signing last year. While I don’t expect Estrada to post a 3.38 ERA like Fiers did, I think a move to a low pressure situation in Detroit, not to mention a much bigger park – which is a big deal for a fly-ball pitcher – should help him rebound from an ugly 2018.

Starter 5: Daniel Norris

I believe the Tigers will give Matt Hall and Spencer Turnbull an opportunity to compete for the fifth rotation spot. I also think Tyler Alexander and possibly even Blaine Hardy will be in the mix as well.

Ultimately though, I don’t think the Tigers are ready to move on from Norris as a starter yet and if he is healthy I expect him to start the season out in the rotation. I won’t guarantee that he will finish the year there though.

Long: Blaine Hardy

I teased the idea of the Tigers trading either Hardy or Alex Wilson, but ultimately I think they provide more value to this team than whatever they could get back in an offseason trade. Hardy had a career-year as a hybrid starter/long reliever last season, and I’d like to see him reprise that role again next year – even if some regression is coming.

Middle: Victor Alcantara

I think Alcantara will steal a bullpen spot from guys like Warwick Saupold and Zac Reininger, who both saw innings last season. Alcantara finished the year on fire, tossing 30 innings with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He has the tools to be an eighth inning guy down the line, and I think he begins the year in the Motor City.

Middle: Drew VerHagen

The Tigers successfully turned two starters, VerHagen and Buck Farmer, into decent middle relievers. Neither are going to be all-stars, but VerHagen had a nice 8.47 K/9 and 3.84 FIP last year, so he’s already a decent option for this bullpen.

Middle: Buck Farmer

Farmer and VerHagen will always go together in my head, as starters-turned-average relievers with electric stuff. Farmer is fun to watch pitch, if only he had enough consistency to put it all together. He will begin 2019 as one of Detroit’s middle relievers.

LOOGY: Daniel Stumpf

Daniel Stumpf wasn’t very good last year, but I think he will reprise his role as Detroit’s LOOGY next season, with Hardy as their long-man. His role is precarious to say the least though, and I think he’ll face competition from Saupold, Reininger and Zac Houston during spring training.

Set-Up: Alex Wilson

Again, I don’t think Wilson’s trade value is worth more than keeping him around at his expected $2.5M arb salary next season. Wilson had a nice season, posting a 3.36 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. I expect him to be a reliable eighth inning option for this team again in 2019.

Set-Up: Trevor Rosenthal

Detroit’s bullpen wasn’t very good last season, but I don’t expect them to invest big money in fixing it while they are rebuilding. However, Rosenthal is coming off Tommy John surgery and could be a nice low-cost gamble on a one-year deal for this team. If he proves he is healthy and pitches well in the first half, this former Cardinals closer would command a hefty payday at the trade deadline. Of course, a lot of teams will be interested in Rosenthal, so he may price himself out of Detroit’s range. If he doesn’t, I like him a lot as a bounce back candidate.

Set-Up: Joe Jimenez

Jimenez is Detroit’s closer of the future, although as long as Shane Greene is in the fold I think he will retain that role. Greene is a prime candidate to be traded next July, so Jimenez might be the closer by midseason.

Closer: Shane Greene

Greene had an up-and-down season in Detroit, which likely cost him a chance to get traded to a contender at the deadline. I don’t see Detroit dealing him over the offseason, when the reliever market is much quieter, but I think he finishes the 2019 season in a different uniform. Until then, he will be Detroit’s closer.

Ultimately, this roster doesn’t look wildly different from what the Detroit Tigers already have. However, a few small moves here and there could help Detroit stay somewhat competitive next season. Plus, buying guys on the cheap who could bounce back is a great way to flip them for prospects, which will help the team get to the rebuild quicker.