Detroit Tigers: 5 Notable Stats from Fangraph’s 2019 Steamer Projections

The Detroit Tigers have some intriguing projections for a few of their players next season, based on Fangraphs’ Steamer module.

The Detroit Tigers are 1.5 years into what is probably going to be a three-year rebuild. As such, the 2019 season may end up another forgettable one as this team trots out some middling talent while they wait for the talent-heavy farm system to reach the big leagues.

Steamer is a projection module at Fangraphs that was recently released with their 2019 projections. It does not give overall team predictions, but it does provide statistical projections for every player on the roster.

While it is a module, and of course it’s early November so numerous roster moves have yet to be made, it does provide an interesting look at which Tigers players may be poised to have better, or worse, seasons next year. Plus, it gives a look at what Detroit’s depth chart could look like, although Steamer seems to give Detroit a lot more at-bats than they have to go around.

We will look at that and a lot more in these five surprising statistics from the 2019 steamer projections:

Miguel Cabrera – 25 home runs

It’s no secret that Miguel Cabrera is getting up there in age. He missed nearly all of the 2018 season with a back injury, and at age 35 he is likely relegated to just DH duties from here on out.

Steamer must think he’s going to DH full-time as well, otherwise I doubt they’d project the big fella for a team-leading 649 plate appearances next season. Steamer also thinks Miggy will still be an elite hitter, although not quite at the level he was five years ago.

Still, a .282/.368/.479 line with 25 home runs, 88 RBI, a 132 wRC+ and a 2.7 fWAR would be a very nice boost for the Tigers, who are in desperate need of some production out of Miggy and his gargantuan eight-year, $248 million dollar contract that runs through 2023.

25 home runs and a .282 average may seem far-fetched after his last two seasons, but it’s important to remember that Miggy hit .318 with 38 jacks as recently as 2016.

Plus, health has been an issue the last two years. I think these numbers are a bit ambitious, but entirely possible if he manages to stay healthy – which of course is a big if.

Ronny Rodriguez – 14 home runs, 11 stolen bases

Personally, I don’t think Ronny Rodriguez will be Detroit’s starting shortstop in 2019. I believe the team will peruse the free agent market, potentially even bringing back Jose Iglesias on a one-year deal. However, if the Tigers do go into 2019 with Ronny Rodriguez as their primary shortstop, steamer actually projects decent production from the 26-year-old.

Steamer gives Rodriguez, over 541 plate appearances, 14 home runs, 11 stolen bases, 61 RBI and a .259/.293/.410 slash line. That would equal a 89 wRC+ and a 1.1 fWAR, both big steps forward from the 58 wRC+ and -1.0 fWAR from his brief 2018 cameo.

The jump in batting average is primarily because of Rodriguez’s ghastly .253 BABIP from last season, which will surely regulate to some degree in 2019. The 4.3% walk rate and 19.8% strikeout rate are not too far off from what he actually posted last season, so it does make sense that he’d see a major uptick in his slash line.

However, I think it’s rather bold to project 14/11 from Rodriguez after he managed just five home runs and two steals in 206 plate appearances last season.

Ultimately, Rodriguez’s value will be tied to his role – if he is the starting shortstop, perhaps double-digit HR/SB is possible. If he’s a utility infielder, probably not.

Matt Hall – 11 starts

Steamer predicts that Detroit’s starting rotation will be Michael Fulmer, Matthew Boyd, Jordan Zimmermann, Daniel Norris and Blaine Hardy, with each of them making 16 or more starts. Next up is left-hander Matt Hall, who is projected to make 21 appearances for the Tigers, including 11 starts.

Hall made a few appearances down the stretch for the Tigers, after dominating in both AA and AAA. He appeared in five games for Detroit, tossing eight innings and giving up 13 runs on 19 hits with a 5/3 K/BB ratio.

However, despite his ugly performance, Hall is still one of Detroit’s most big league ready pitching prospects, and it is entirely possible he makes a fair amount of appearances in Detroit’s rotation next season. After all, Norris and Fulmer and very injury prone, and Hardy has never pitched a full season in a big league rotation.

I don’t foresee Hall as much more than a SP6/swingman type arm in the big leagues, but I think he is already at that ceiling and could be a regular contributor for the Tigers starting in 2019.

Victor Alcantara – 40 Innings Pitched

The Detroit Tigers rotated through multiple bullpen arms in 2018, with very few finding success while in the Motor City. One of the few who had a solid season was hard throwing right-hander Victor Alcantara.

Across 30 innings pitched, Alcantara posted a 2.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and a 1.80 BB/9. Of course, his sky-high 95.8% left on base rate and .230 BABIP indicate he had a lot of luck on his side – which is shown by his 4.53 FIP and 3.81 SIERA.

Still, he showed enough that steamer views him as one of Detroit’s more important bullpen pieces in 2018. His 40 projected innings is greater than Drew VerHagen, Zac Reininger and Sandy Baez, meaning Steamer thinks he has a good chance to be a part of Detroit’s bullpen throughout the 2019 season.

Armed with a nasty sinker that runs up to 95 miles per hour, Alcantara generates a lot of ground balls which limits his strikeout potential. As such, he’s probably never going to be a closer or even an eighth inning guy. However, he has great potential to be a solid middle reliever for the Tigers, again as soon as 2019.

A lot is going to change for the Detroit Tigers between now and opening day 2019. For now, we can take a look at these projections and determine how this Tigers team may look when the next season is upon us.