Detroit Tigers: Constructing the Opening Day Lineup for 2021

Here’s our first draft of what the projected Detroit Tigers 2021 Opening Day lineup will look like.

After the winter meetings and the comments made by Al Avila last week, we have a general idea of what the Detroit Tigers lineup may look like on Opening Day. While the corner outfield, catcher, and first base (or third) are yet to be determined, with this whole concept that we will be doing throughout the off-season, this first attempt at lineup construction is to look within and an educated guess on a name to bring in.

The idea came from our friends over at Reviewing the Brew but I decided to take a different route and decided instead of the “Perfect Lineup”, I just decided to go with Opening Day and if the Tigers do make moves, the lineup will change.

Where to start? Well, Avila spoke about the versatility of Jeimer Candelario so I took that into consideration and what A.J. Hinch said about addressing the need behind the plate.  So with all subtext, let’s begin.

Batting First: LF Victor Reyes

In 35 games in 2020, we saw Victor Reyes batting leadoff quite a bit. Now it is strange to think that a player with a walk rate just under 4% would be the hitter leading off but turned out to work out ok for the Tigers as he produced a slash line of .277/.313/.372 (38-for-137) with an OPS of .685. He was much more aggressive at the first pitch, swinging at a 21.6% clip, up from 2019 so that could have been a factor.

Reyes showed improvement from his 2019 numbers in exit velocity, (up 2.4) hard-hit contact  (up 9.8%) and his XWOBA (expected weighted on-base average) actually climbed towards near what is considered “average”. (.321 was the league average in 2020)

Reyes can hit fastballs and the big concern heading into 2020 was breaking pitches and how he could handle offspeed offerings. While he needs to hit better against curveballs ( he hit .118 with a run value of -5 according to Baseball Savant), he showed greater improvement against sliders, batting .321 and improving his run value from -4 to -1. So, who bats second?

Batting Second: SS Willi Castro

For how much flack Al Avila has been getting all week about the lack of free-agent moves and his comments to the press, one move that can’t be given too much grief for was flipping Leonys Martin for Willi Castro, who made some waves upon his call up from the 60-man camp.

In his first game on August 12, he went 3-for-4 and drove in three. It was a sign of things to come and for his efforts, he got Baseball America’s Detroit Tigers Rookie of the Year for an impressive body of work in 36 games.

In 68 plate appearances batting second, he put up a slash line of .311/.358/.541 with an OPS of .899 as he would play shortstop in place of Niko Goodrum. The most impressive number that stands out was his XWOBA, which was .387. Even with the injury towards late September with right shoulder soreness, he finished the month hitting .362/.402/.564.

The switch-hitting Castro hit over .300 from both sides of the plate but had more power from the right side, hitting five home runs. Tigers fans can live with a high strikeout rate and low walks with a wRC+ of 151 with this production from the second spot in the lineup.

As Chris Brown pointed out, he is one of just ten players in 2020 with an average sprint speed of at least 28.2 ft/sec and a home run of 445 feet or longer. That list included names like Ronald Acuna Jr, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Mike Trout. You need speed at the top of the lineup and Castro definitely has that.  If he can make the adjustments that players need to make in their second year once teams get more film on him, the Tigers will have an All-Star caliber infielder.

Batting Third: DH Miguel Cabrera

Jim Price changed forever how I hear “batting third, the big man, Miguel Cabrera” but I digress.

Cabrera showed improvement in this weird, strange shortened season with improvements from his 2019 season with increases in exit velocity, barrel % hard-hit contact and the power flickered on again, to the tune of 10 home runs, which was in 57 games, compared to 10 in 136 games in 2019. Even in the stats like XBA, he hit .291 and he was able to walk at a clip closer to his 11.3% rate with a 10.4% walk rate.

Even with his bad start in July, batting .133 in the first 8 games,  like Jeimer Candelario, Cabrera picked it up in August which is when the Tigers started to pick it up as a ballclub.

The big man turns 38 in April and whether there is a full season or not, the uptick in Cabrera’s production was a much-needed sight for the lineup that lacked power in 2019. Cabrera has stated he wants to play first base again at some point in 2020 but it appears to save the bat a bit, they will keep him at DH and they should.

If the future Hall of Famer can repeat his performance of an OPS+ of 102 or near it, that can help protect the cleanup hitter. You can tell the big man is slowing down a bit but it appears on the surface, he is healthier than he has been in quite some time.

Batting Fourth: C.J. Cron

Now, this is the first free agent that was added to the lineup and it is a familiar face in Cron, which makes a lot of sense for the Tigers. He started 2020 strong, hitting four homes in his first 13 games before the knee injury ended his season.

According to Spotrac, his market value has him at $3.5 million. and if you look across the market for first baseman, the market is rather slim after Cron. Could you sign Marwin Gonzalez and have him play first? Sure, but in this case, Gonzalez would be better suited to play a multiple set of positions.

What about the farm system? Bryant Packard has not played above High-A and Spencer Torkelson, who is playing third at the moment even if he makes a splash right away, the Tigers may wait to bring him up as they have with their other prospects for service time purposes.

When Cron is healthy, he can provide 20-30 home runs, above league average in OPS+  give you positive Defensive Runs Saved, and has had gains in exit velocity, barrels and as Jacob pointed out, he is hitting the ball hard for being over 30 years old.

You know what helps, enduring to Tigers fans, which he did when he found out his season was ending.

Batting Fifth-3B Jeimer Candelario

The Detroit Tigers player of the year as voted by the BBWAA and rightfully so with the year the “Candy Man” batting either cleanup or batting 5th.

Defensively, he was worth 2 Outs Above Average, and even with a change to first base, a negative -1 Outs Above Average all things considering that happened after Cron’s injury, the adjustment could have been much worse.

From the fifth spot in the batting order, Candelario produced a slash line of .283/.327/.522  (13-for-46) with an OPS of .925. His numbers with batters in scoring position are where he shined. He hit .327/.389/.408, going 16-for-49.

The number that Tigers fans should be excited about the most was his ISO numbers, which put him above .200 for the first time in his career.  Per FanGraphs, his Steamer projections are pretty good, with 24 home runs and 78 driven in with a healthy walk rate of 11.1% and hitting .297.

Candelario could hit clean up too depending on if Detroit signs Cron or not. If he goes back to first and say a scenario that plays out that Isaac Paredes starts the year at third base, I would be fine with this too.

Overall, the mere fact that we having the conservation that Candelario is firmly entrenched in the Tigers’ future is a good one.  Per the article in the Freep this morning, it could be possible to have Candelario at first base on the comments from Avila.

“In talking to AJ, he likes flexibility,” “Ideally, probably, third base might be the best thing for (Candelario). I think, also, the ability to play first base is good for him, too.”

Batting Seventh-2B Niko Goodrum

Goodrum rolled with playing second last year after coming off the injured list despite what it appears on the surface, reservations about it. 

“Uh, I mean,” he said Wednesday, taking a pause before giving his response. “It’s not my team. It’s their decision they want to make. I go play ball. That’s the only thing I can do.”

From an offensive standpoint, Goodrum had a down year but was a Gold Glove finalist for his play at shortstop. What he could provide from batting sixth? From a career perspective, he has put up a slash line of .177/.239/.331 but batting seventh, he has put up in 81 plate appearances.

Whether it was injuries that affect him at the plate this season, if the Tigers can get production near what he did in 2018 and 2019 as far as home runs are concerned, then that would make him much more palatable at the plate with his good defense.

His work ethic and the ability to adapt to any position the Tigers throw at him is tremendous. But as the Tigers continue the rebuild, they will expect much more production.

I hate to sound overdramatic but this is a make-or-break year for Goodrum at the plate. The Tigers are high on him so to start the season, this is a place to see him on Opening Day.

Batting Eighth-CF JaCoby Jones

JaCoby Jones got off to a hot start this season, batting .423 (11-for-28) and was responsible for some highlight-reel plays to start the season.

Fans wanted him to be at the top of the lineup but he did most of his damage batting 9th, hitting .308/.379/.712 with an OPS of 1.091 with all of his home runs coming from that spot.

As Jules Posner of Forbes.com pointed out in August, his swing change that goes back to May 2019 has resulted in a higher walk rate and chase % going down. Having that type of power in the double clean-up role does sounds appealing.

Injuries continue to hamper Jones’s progress. Seeing him get plunked in the Milwaukee series and go out with a fractured hand was frustrating as yet another injury ended his season.

For his career batting 8th, Jones has put up a slash line of .229/.282/.380 (44-for-192) in 56 games with 6 home runs so he is familiar with batting here.

Jones will still need to continue he can hit breaking and offspeed pitches better. If Jones can start the season as he did in 2020 the same way, it would give Detroit a punch in the bottom of the order.

Batting Ninth-Jake Rogers

This last selection is predicated on several factors including his comments in the Freep today from manager AJ Hinch.

• “I think he can shut down a running game,” Hinch said. “He can do some things athletically behind the plate that you can’t teach. We need to bring his whole game together, whether it’s the name-calling to mixing in the attraction of being an offensive player.”
• “It’s a blessing and a curse to play for an ex-catcher when you’re a catcher,” Hinch said. “One part is we got a lot of expertise and a lot of feel for that position. The bad news is we have a lot of expertise and a lot of feel for that position.”

Like Jones, Rogers tweaked his swing to get more offensive production. His leg kick is gone and the admitted rushing by Aliva in 2019 may have hindered his progress.

Now, you can certainly indicate a lot of how a team feels on a prospect based on their actions of not bring him up when Austin Romine was injured but we have no idea what was going on down in Toledo. But we do know Rogers has the defensive skill set to be on a major league ballclub.

Conclusion/Disclaimer

These choices were based if Detroit decides not to spend a lot of money on bats, rather as they indicated today, to add starters to the rotation, which makes perfect sense. If they decide not to sign Cron or a first baseman, I would be fine with Isaac Paredes starting the season at 3rd and Candelario at 1st. Jeimer has said he will play anywhere Detroit will put him.

As far as Rule 5 pick Akil Baddoo goes, I expect him to be on the bench and the Tigers may choose their spots on where they should play him.

Either way, this is the first version of the Detroit Tigers Opening Day lineup 1.0. Comment below and let us know what you think your starting nine should be.