The Detroit Tigers Have Top Prospects. Now What?
We recently wrote about the Detroit Tigers becoming the first team ever to land 5 players inside the top 25 on MLB Pipeline’s top-100 Prospects list.
If we switch over to Baseball America’s top-100 prospect rankings, the Tigers are the first team since the 2011 Kansas City Royals to land 5 players in the top 35.
Clearly these are impressive accomplishments, and the Detroit Tigers officially have great prospects. But when it comes to prospect rankings, it’s hard not to think of that old Drew Carey line: “Everything is made up, and the points don’t matter.”
This isn’t to suggest MLB Pipeline and Baseball America don’t work hard on these lists, or their opinions aren’t valid. On the contrary, Motor City Bengals is in the process of rolling out our top 20 Detroit Tigers prospects right now because we think rankings provide useful information for fans.
But teams don’t get prizes for landing a certain number of prospects on lists. And the Detroit Tigers wouldn’t suddenly have a worse farm system if Riley Greene, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal had each landed 10 spots lower.
The players are still the players, the rankings are still subjective, and none of it matters without more information. So let’s provide some context.
Will These Prospects Help the Detroit Tigers Win?
It’s clear the Detroit Tigers have a strong collection of potential impact talent. To get an idea of what that actually means, let’s look at four similar prospect groups to see what kind of MLB production and success fans should expect in the near future.
Under each team you’ll see tables showing the number of top-25, top-50, and top-100 prospects, and we’ve also included the total WAR each group eventually produced for their team, as well as how much they contributed during specific playoff years.
Just a few quick notes before we get to the list. Tigers fans may be looking at the most top-heavy farm system of all time. Since 2000 there have been 24 instances of a team landing 5 prospects inside the top-50 on a Baseball America or MLB Pipeline list, and the 2021 Detroit Tigers are the first of those teams with no other prospects inside the top 100.
The second note is a quick reminder that teams typically need at least 35-40 WAR to make the playoffs.
With that said, let’s compare Detroit’s current crop of top-50 talent to the most similar farm systems over the past two decades.
The 2006 Arizona Diamondbacks
Prospects (BA/MLB): Justin Upton (2/7), Stephen Drew (5/9), Conor Jackson (17/20), Carlos Quentin (20/22), Chris Young (23/27), Carlos Gonzalez (32/41), Dustin Nippert (67/NA)
The Diamondbacks went 77-85 in 2005, and these lists were published prior to the 2006 season, when the team finished 76-86. But the following year Arizona won their division with Drew, Jackson, and Young all serving as regulars. Nippert (36G), Quentin (81G), and Upton (43G) saw time with the 2007 team as well, but they combined for -1.6 WAR. Arizona did win the NLDS that year, with strong contributions from Drew, Upton, and Young, but they were then swept by the Rockies in the NLCS.
The D-backs didn’t return to the playoffs until 2011, by which point Gonzalez, Jackson, Nippert, and Quintin had all been traded. Drew and Young were traded in 2012, and Upton was moved early in 2013. Carlos Gonzalez never played for Arizona, but he was a big part of the trade that brought Dan Haren to town. Quentin and Nippert didn’t bring back much in return, and Jackson unfortunately came down with a rare disease. All things considered, this is a pretty disappointing group. The Diamondbacks did land three solid regulars, with Upton and Young making All-Star teams, and they used their prospect depth to trade for a starter who gave them 12.6 WAR over two seasons. But in the end all they have to show for it is two division titles.
The 2008 Tampa Bay Rays
Prospects (BA/MLB): Evan Longoria (2/2), David Price (10/11), Jake McGee (15/20), Wade Davis (17/12), Reid Brignac (39/32), Desmond Jennings (59/NA), Jeff Niemann (99/NA)
The Tampa Bay Rays were no stranger to strong farm systems, in part because they were also quite familiar with picking high in the draft. The 2007 season was Tampa’s 10th as a franchise, and to that point the team had never won more than 70 games in a season. But the 2008 prospect class was their best yet, and it helped kick off a run of success that extends to this day. The 2008 Rays shocked the world by going 97-65 and making it all the way to the World Series, with prospects Evan Longoria and David Price making big contributions.
The Rays made the playoffs three more times over the next five years, with Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann providing average starting pitching, Jake McGee helping in the bullpen, and Desmond Jennings capably taking over in the outfield when Carl Crawford left. Even Reid Brignac managed to sneak in one solid season in an otherwise disappointing career. But as is almost always the case, this group slowly moved on to other locations. Davis was traded to Kansas City in a huge deal that brought back Jake Odorizzi and Wil Myers, while McGee was moved to Colorado for Corey Dickerson. Brignac left, Niemann and Jennings both saw injuries derail their careers, and the Rays traded David Price to Detroit in 2014, landing their current shortstop Willy Adames. Longoria lasted the longest, sticking in Tampa through the 2017 season. This group didn’t win a World Series, but they won an awful lot of games and gave Rays fans plenty to celebrate.
The 2011 Kansas City Royals
Prospects (BA/MLB): Eric Hosmer (8/8), Mike Moustakas (9/7), Wil Myers (10/16), John Lamb (18/34), Mike Montgomery (19/14), Cristian Colon (51/NA), Danny Duffy (68/NA), Jake Odorizzi (69/37), Chris Dwyer (83/NA)
At the time this group was considered perhaps the single best collection of prospects ever. They don’t look all that special now, but a few things stand out in retrospect. First, the Royals did an excellent job of trading prospects. They sent Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, and Jake Odorizzi to Tampa for James Shields and Wade Davis, who were both huge parts of Kansas City’s deep playoff runs, and they moved John Lamb to help land Johnny Cueto, who was the final piece of their championship puzzle.
The second noteworthy aspect of the Royals 2011 farm system is just how absurdly deep it was. In addition to the nine top-100 prospects listed above, the 2011 Royals minor-league system also boasted Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland, Salvador Perez, and Yordano Ventura. Cain technically wasn’t a prospect anymore because he had 147 at-bats for the Brewers in 2010, but he spent the majority of 2011 in the minors. In any event, those six players went on to produce 34.7 WAR for the Royals during the 2014 and 2015 seasons, helping Kansas City take home its first World Series title since 1985.
The 2015 Chicago Cubs
Prospects (BA/MLB): Kris Bryant (1/2), Addison Russell (3/5), Jorge Soler (12/22), Kyle Schwarber (19/49), Carl Edwards Jr. (38/47), Billy McKinney (83/NA), Albert Almora Jr. (NA/57)
This collection of prospects was quite celebrated across baseball. They seemed to make an immediate impact, helping the Cubs make a surprise run to the NLCS in 2015, and then winning the World Series in 2016. But what was expected to be a dynasty never materialized. The Cubs traded away some of their impressive prospect depth to make more runs at a title, sending away McKinney, Soler, Dylan Cease, and eventual top-5 prospects Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jiménez in deals to land Aroldis Chapman, Wade Davis, and José Quintana.
Some of the rest of their talent never really developed. Schwarber burst on the scene with impressive displays of power, but never found a position and struggled with consistency, while the glove-first outfielder Almora never developed enough impact with the bat and saw his glove regress. Addison Russell had a few solid years, but he was suspended in 2018 for domestic abuse. The Cubs brought him back for 2019, but then cut ties with him when he was no longer producing on the field. The rail-thin Edwards spent a few years as a valuable middle reliever, but injuries sapped his velocity and command. And Kris Bryant may be the most confounding of them all. He began his career like a future Hall-of-Famer, averaging 6.1 WAR per year in his first three seasons. But he’s added just 6 WAR total over the last three, and there doesn’t seem to be much confidence he’ll ever find his old form again. This crew will always have a World Series title, but Cubs fans can’t help but feel a bit disappointed that a dynasty never materialized