Detroit Tigers: Roster Predictions Heading into Spring Training

We will take a stab at who will make the Detroit Tigers 26-man roster coming out of Spring Training heading into the 2021 season.

The Detroit Tigers are heading into 2021 with a brand new coaching staff but pretty much the same roster across the board however, there are several storylines to discuss heading into Spring Training when full roster workouts begin on February 22.

There are a few new names but the main core of the roster is still here from 2020.   Injuries will be an unique concern compared to past seasons.  Teams are going back to a full-season and hopefully not the stop and start we saw last season.

However, if injuries hit this roster like we saw in 2020 to key players in the lineup, depth is a concern beyond the starters. We saw that exposed last season and it hurt the Tigers coming down the stretch in September.

Another point to consider is for some of the pitchers in camp who are fighting for a position on the Tigers roster in certain cases based on the comments from AJ Hinch, they will be either be a starter again (Daniel Norris, Tyler Alexander) or ask relievers to throw multiple innings.

Toledo will be quite busy with the various call-ups but plan on seeing those call-ups heavy on the pitching side. General Manager Al Avila continues to address the pitching depth concerns with a fury of moves the last few days signing three relievers to minor league deals in Wily Peralta, Ben Taylor, Ricardo Pinto and veteran Julio Teheran, who will compete for a spot in the rotation. 

I admit, I would rather see Rick Porcello, Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi but Teheran is a low-risk, high reward option and there are a few fans who rather wait for Detroit to spend next year.

I believe they address the issues in getting a second baseman and a veteran in the outfield but they should of looked into upgrading their staff with a true starter (or two) than can be an innings eater and a veteran reliever to shore up the bullpen. Yes, I understand when I hear fans say “let the kids sink or swim” but that has an effect on the mindset. But I digress. Let’s take a look at the roster and what it will look like on Opening Day.

Predicting the Starting Rotation for the Detroit Tigers

10. Matthew Boyd

Last week, I did a Opening Day rotation projection 1.0 so this will be “2.0” with a few minor tweaks.  Boyd will lead the staff in 2021 and looks to forget what happen in 2020.

11. Spencer Turnbull

He keeps the ball from going out of the ballpark and has been the Tigers most consistent pitcher the past two seasons. I am still sticking to my gut instinct that he will continue to grow as a pitcher in 2021.

12. Michael Fulmer

Many of the projections seem to be universal across the board for Fulmer from a fantasy baseball perspective. 140-150 innings, ERA near 5 with FanGraphs’s ZiPS projections have him at 106. For Fulmer, I just believe projections can be thrown out the window. He was learning to throw with less velocity and showed progress towards the end of the season.

For the Tigers to be competitive, they need Fulmer to give some quality innings early on in the season.

13. Tarik Skubal

Skubal was recently listed as one of the 10 pitchers posed to break out along with Casey Mize according to MLB.com. The main reason is because of his spin rate on his fastball, which averages around 2,422.

“Still, it was an extremely small sample (32 innings), and there were signs that Skubal — the No. 24 overall prospect in baseball — will succeed, including striking out more than a batter per frame. That can be attributed in part to his impressive fastball velocity and spin rate: Skubal’s average four-seam velo of 94.4 mph ranked fourth among lefty starting pitchers, sandwiched between Blake Snell and Julio Urías, and his average fastball spin rate of 2,422 rpm was in the 82nd percentile of MLB.”

I see him making the rotation out of camp. He showed in a limited sample size of what he is capable of doing. There was a reason why he was number three on our top 20 prospects list.

14. Julio Teheran

Of the starting pitchers in camp, Teheran is the only one who has thrown 200 innings. Yes, he got crushed last season but as Chris Brown said in his article, expect him to have 30 starts with an ERA in the 3.50 to 4.50 range.  I know fans were upset about losing out on Rick Porcello but this will be either a signing that gives Detroit a veteran starter that will give them meanful innings or another Matt Moore or Ivan Nova situation. Take your pick.

15.Daniel Norris

If Detroit goes with a six-man rotation early in the season, I am going to pencil Norris to beat out Tyler Alexander for that sixth spot. Norris wants to start. He has made that abundantly clear. While he is ready for whatever role Detroit will give him, I could see Norris getting starts early in the season as the team’s sixth starter.

Predicting the Bullpen for the Detroit Tigers

The bullpen will be a major focus this season. This area of the team will see a lot of new faces throughout the season but what Detroit brings north will be similar to what we saw in 2020.

16. Tyler Alexander

Seemly out of nowhere last year, Alexander tied the AL record with nine straight batters. He up his K% rate, lowered his WHIP and lowered his Hard Hit% all in 2020. Another item worth noting he decreased his use of his fastball and upped his usage on his curve. He can also be used as a spot starter. He isn’t the fireballer that Soto is but expect Alexander in the bullpen in 2021 with his ability to locate.

17. Gregory Soto

One of several candidates to be the Tigers closer, he continued to work in the off-season on showing 2020 was not a flash in the pan on working on his slider.   Like Alexander, Norris and Urena, Soto has starter experience and that will benefit what Hinch wants to do with the bullpen. It is good to sign a Tigers international signing pay off.

18. Buck Farmer

Coming into spring training with an impressive beard, Farmer spent time being the team’s setup man last year. He is a true utility bullpen piece but for all the time he has spent in the bullpen, he still has not recorded a save. That could change this season.  It is strange to think he is the longest -tenured Tigers pitcher and second only to Miguel Cabrera.

19. Bryan Garcia

Detroit gave Garcia every opportunity to close last season and he took advantage of it with four saves. You would like to see that K% go up as it was just 12.9% to generate some more swing and misses. But pencil him in the back of the bullpen.

20. Joe Jimenez

Jimenez lost the closer’s role but as  Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported, he is an option to closer once again. He will need a strong spring to be considered. While his slider produced a XBA of just .197, he will need to improve on how he locates his fastball, which produces enough to put him in the 88th percentile.

If he can get his release point back to the point that he can disguise his fastball better and make his changeup an effective pitch enough for hitters to respect him, Jimenez can get back to being a reliable arm.

21. Jose Cisnero

We here at MCB get a lot of grief for not praising Al Avila enough, which I think it is a bit much because Avila found Cisnero off the scrapheap from Houston. It is more than a golf clap, they finally got some good luck. He emerged as an effective bullpen arm in 2020. He cut his walk rate from 2019 and upped his K% to 27.6%. If he can limit his hard hit% (up to 46.1% from 36% in 2019) he is another arm to be considered to be a closer.

22. José Ureña

José Ureña missed time last year due to COVID-19 and then he fractured his forearm. If he can improve his command and get a better breaking ball, I think for now, long-relief to spot starting for now coming out of the bullpen aka the seventh or eighth starter.

Predicting the bench for the Detroit Tigers

One of the names on my predictions may throw off Detroit Tigers fans but I am betting on changes in philosophy from AJ Hinch and to finally give this player a chance.

23. Victor Reyes

In 57 games last season, Reyes gave identical production as he did in 69 games in 2019 but he improved his hard hit% and barrel% in 2020. He can play any position in the outfield, which makes him a good utility player. He does not walk a lot but hopefully, Reyes can continue to grow as a player.

24. Niko Goodrum

Goodrum knows he has to hit and spent his entire off-season working on improving his approach at the plate. He showed his defensive prowess by getting a nod for a Gold Glove at shortstop.  Hinch loves utility players and Goodrum can play anywhere just like one Don Kelly, who Tigers fan love for his versatility.

He should see sometime across the diamond. He knows he has to hit in order to stay on the roster and Detroit is banking on all the time he spent on working on hitting in the off-season will pay off.

25. Jake Rogers

Rogers is battling several candidates for the backup role and the reason I gave him the nod over Greiner because Rogers worked on his swing way and it was doing well in spring training before the shutdown.

Granted, as Chris Brown said many times, teams can tell you how they feel about a prospect by their actions and with not getting a  call up last season, that was telling. But a new manager with Hinch and a brand new coaching staff could help Rogers. Of all the catchers in camp, he has the highest upside. I think he goes out there and proves it.

26. Harold Castro

Castro’s ability to play anywhere and because he is a left-handed bat, I gave him the final spot on the roster although I considered Zack Short, who has more of a power profile. But for now based on tenure, I went with Castro.

As far as Akai Baddoo goes as a Rule 5 pick, I think the Tigers will make a trade to keep him and send him down to the minors. Detroit cant really afford to keep him on the bench all season. It would benefit more if he got some in the minors. Another arm I considered for the bullpen is Derek Holland.

Spring training officially starts this week so let’s see how this version of the  26-man roster will look. Give us your prediction of the 26-man roster.